By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Happy Friday, LineStar fam! We have a loaded 13-game slate flying at us this evening which is chock-full of big arms, big bats, and (surely) big binks incoming. Once again, keep an eye on the weather in Washington. Depending on how the forecast shakes out there, we could see our set of games go from a baker’s dozen to just a regular ol’ dozen. There is a lot to unwrap on this one, so let’s get straight to it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

🚨SF @ WAS:🚨 We’re here once again with some weather concerns in the nation’s capital. The forecast shapes up pretty similar to yesterday which, of course, led to a postponement. That doesn’t necessarily mean the same fate is incoming. These slow-moving storms will be fairly scattered so it all comes down to whether or not one makes its way over the ballpark. However, if they start on time, I would be very worried about an in-game delay which would make starting pitchers super risky. For the sake of this newsletter, I won’t cover any plays here but currently, I’ll give this game about a 50/50 shot of playing. Definitely check the forecast closer to lock.

CWS @ DET: Very low-end chance of a passing shower which could cause a delay of some sort (late start or in-game). Warm 80-85 degree temps with light winds blowing left to right.

SD @ NYM: New York will be another spot with a low-end chance of seeing some rain hitting the ballpark. It’s likely they could just play through some light stuff if anything even hits.

COL @ CIN: A line of storms moves through the Cincy area right around the scheduled first pitch (7:10 ET). They’ll run a forecast check pregame and there will be a moderate chance of a late start depending on how the radar looks. Once they get going, there *should* be no further issues.

HOU @ MIN: It’s not quite as warm in Minnesota as has been in the last couple of days but it will still be about 80-85 degrees throughout this game and now they’ll have 10 mph winds blowing OUT to center/left. As far as weather is concerned, this will be the best spot for hitters on the slate.

LAA @ ARI: The roof at Chase Field will be CLOSED.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Brandon Woodruff (RHP) | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.8k | vs. PIT

There is so much stud pitching available tonight, it’s difficult picking just one pricey arm to highlight. But Woodruff stands out as the safest bet of the bunch. Now, if he’s looking like he’ll be 35+% owned in GPPs, I might pivot elsewhere, but Woodruff could easily end the day as the slate’s highest-scoring pitcher. He’s been a certified stud all season: 1.42 ERA, 2.69 xFIP, 0.74 WHIP, 32.5% kRate, .148 AVG, .194 wOBA, 0.47 HR/9 Rate. The Pirates actually don’t strike out exceptionally often (22.7% kRate vs. RHPs, 7th lowest) but offensively, even with Ke’Bryan Hayes back in the mix, they’re just not all that dangerous. They have an 83 wRC+ vs. RHPs on the season (ranks 27th) and an 85 wRC+ since June 3rd when Hayes returned from the IL.

Elsewhere, up top, I will never talk anyone off of rostering Jacob deGrom ($11.3k/$12k) -- he just has a tougher opponent with the Padres coming to town (though, he had no issues with them six days ago). deGrom could also see his workload normalize after throwing 85 pitches in his last start. Clayton Kershaw ($9.8k/$9.8k) makes for an appealing pivot off of both (likely higher-owned) Woodruff and deGrom.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP) | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.5k | @ ARI

Who doesn’t love investing in a little Sho Time? Ohtani continues to represent more value on DraftKings and there’s always risk with him due to his pitch count seemingly restricted to the low 90s. He only threw 76 pitches in his last outing (vs. SEA) but that is all it took for him to rack up double-digit strikeouts. More impressively, in my opinion, is the fact that he didn’t walk a single batter in that last game. It still stands out as the worst walk rate on the slate, but he’s gotten his BB% down to 14.8%. Meanwhile, Ohtani’s 34.1% kRate trails only deGrom (who is on his own planet with a 45.4% kRate) and Scherzer (36.1% kRate), who of course may not even play. Arizona has also been truly inept on offense, particularly against RHPs. I’ll refer to our friend and colleague, KC Bubba’s, recent tweet he sent out this morning highlighting (or, rather, low lighting) the Diamondbacks recent struggles -- linked below.

Keegan Akin (LHP) | DK: $5k, FD: $5.8k | @ TB

Akin is likely only a “DK SP2” punt option, unless you really want to go crazy with some big bats on FanDuel. This could backfire in spectacular fashion, but I can’t ignore the “fantasy point per dollar” potential and he’d certainly allow you to take a stud pitcher on DK while still allowing you to fit some big bats in. Across his MLB career 45.2 IP, which began last season, Akin has provided an above average 26.6% kRate and 12.9% SwStr% along with a 4.14 ERA, 4.01 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP, and .255 opp AVG. Astounding numbers? Not at all. Mostly average, really. But he has thrown 86 and 94 pitches in his two starts this year, so he’s being entrusted with a normal SP’s workload. He reached a ceiling of 31 DKFP/48 FDFP at one point last season as well, so the upside is there. Akin will be toeing the rubber on the road but it comes at Tropicana Field which has been the most pitcher-friendly park this season. The Rays also rank 21st with a 92 wRC+ vs. LHPs and their lofty 29.2% kRate against lefties is the second-highest in baseball behind only Detroit (29.3%). On DK, there are 38 hitters who cost more than Akin and, when given the opportunity, he’s shown himself as a good enough pitcher to rack up 15-20 DKFP with some room for a bit more upside. (Side note: Please don’t hit me with the “IMAGINE playing Akin” in chat if he gets rocked)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ Love the Astros. Love the Reds. Love the Dodgers. Pretty much in that order. I believe they’ll all be very popular stack options, especially Houston and Cincy, but just look to differentiate elsewhere if you’re worried too much about potential ownership.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chase De Jong (RHP), PIT

I’m really liking the Brew Crew stack for tournaments today, especially considering none of the bats are going to cost you a premium aside from Christian Yelich. They’ll look to tee off against an MLB journeyman in De Jong who has struggled to consistently stay on a big-league roster. In his 64.1 IP in the majors, De Jong has an awful 6.85 ERA, 5.96 xFIP, 1.96 HR/9 Rate, 1.60 WHIP, 15.6% kRate, and a 48.3% Fly Ball Rate. Milwaukee has been sneaky solid as of late (104 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks ranks 10th) and their .201 ISO against righties across the last couple weeks ranks 4th in the league. The Pirates bullpen has shown some struggles as of late as well, so the Brewers will have an open window for some run potential here.

Cleveland Indians vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), SEA

Dunn’s 3.18 ERA and .274 opp wOBA look nice on the surface but his underlying stats tell us some regression is due. His 5.52 xFIP is the second-highest among today’s starters and his expected opponent wOBA (xwOBA) sits at .331. Dunn also gives up a high 53.0% Fly Ball Rate and tend to struggle more on the road. He is coming back from a minor shoulder injury but isn’t expected to face any heavy pitch restriction. I’m not in love with this Cleveland stack but they have flashed some tournament winning upside with 10 runs scored in two of their last four games.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Colorado Rockies vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), CIN

There are a number of super contrarian stack angles you could justify today -- Mets versus Snell who has been pretty terrible on the road, White Sox versus a potentially over-performing lefty in Skubal, Twins facing a good pitcher (Urquidy) but playing in what appears to be the slate’s best hitting weather, Detroit facing Giolito who they have taken deep five times in two games this season, etc.

There is a case to be made for some Rockies as well. They’re not playing at Coors Field, obviously, but, going by this year’s park factor, Great American Ball Park in Cincy has rated #1 overall in favor of hitters. Tyler Mahle has also given up 13 earned runs in his last two home starts and has a 7.23 ERA in 18.2 IP there this season. After Mahle is retired, bring on those Cincinnati relievers. The Reds bullpen has been awful all season, but they’ve taken it up a notch with an 8.64 ERA, 5.39 xFIP, and 2.18 WHIP over the last two weeks (all three metrics rank last in MLB). Now, Colorado is not a good offense but they did get a key piece back in their lineup yesterday with Trevor Story returning from the IL. I wouldn’t go overboard with ‘em, but if you’re running 20+ lineups, I’d throw about 10% stack exposure towards the Rockies and you’d easily double the field with ownership leverage.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

1B/2B Max Muncy | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

OF JD Martinez | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

1B Yuli Gurriel | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

1B/C Tyler Stephenson | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

3B Kyle Seager | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/OF Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), TB

1B Bobby Bradley | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), SEA

2B/OF Jace Peterson | $2.6k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Chase De Jong (RHP), PIT

OF Jake Fraley | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

C Ryan Jeffers | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

I initially submitted Alvarez as my home run call working under the assumption that Matt Shoemaker would be starting tonight -- instead, it will be Bailey Ober. I’m not OBER-ly concerned either way (sorry) considering the new Twins starter has already given up a couple of homers in his 8.0 IP this season and there’s still a chance Shoemaker makes an appearance out of the bullpen. Yordan has a .240 ISO against RHPs this season with an average exit velocity of 93.0 mph over the last two weeks (85th percentile) and will get to swing away in 80-85 degree weather with 10 mph winds blowing out to center. Please, Yordan, end my ice-cold home run call streak!

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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