Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney 6/11/19

• 8:00 Fireworks in Philly?

• 13:18 Castillo @ Cleveland

• 16:15 Ariel Jurado in Boston

• 21:55 Offense in Atlanta

• 24:19 Twins Bats vs. Leake

• 28:48 Corbin Chalk

• 31:46 Paddack @ SF

• 34:38 HR Calls / Betting Lines

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How did Monday baseball treat you guys? Hopefully better than the Raptors fans treated Kevin Durant last night! If you landed on a bunch of bats from that Diamondbacks/Phillies game, well props to you! That game saw an MLB record of 13 home runs fly out of the park -- mostly by guys who were <5% owned across all DFS contests. We are 11 days removed from the month of May, which saw a calendar-month MLB record of 1,135 home runs hit and, as the weather continues to heat up, it wouldn’t be surprising to see that record broken again this same season… perhaps more than once! If you think the game hasn’t changed from even just a few years ago, well, you may be gravely mistaken, friend!

On a full 15-game slate like today, I’d like to drop a reminder that not only is contest selection important, “slate selection” can be as well. If you’re feeling overwhelmed by sifting through research across 30 teams, don’t hesitate to switch your focus towards one of the ‘split slates.’ No time to crunch things for the games beginning at 7:05 ET? Switch it up to the five-game slate beginning at 8:10 ET! Sure, you may miss out on the 150 max-entry contests with massive $50k+ top payouts but, if you give yourself more time to focus on fewer games, you’re better off entering into a dark cave equipped with a flashlight than you are walking in with sunglasses on. (I was never great with analogies)

Today’s games with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

SEA @ MIN: With a decent chance of showers (>50%) around the start of this game, a “delay and play” may be likely. Still, some off-and-on rain may hang around after they get things going. If things don’t clear completely, perhaps they opt to play through the lighter stuff. A postponement seems unlikely currently and I’d consider batters safe. Pitchers may be a bit riskier but I’m keeping them in play for now.

NYM @ NYY: Winds blowing out to right at 12-15 mph could give a slight boost to bats -- particularly lefty power.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Patrick Corbin (DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.3k) | LHP | WAS @ CWS

If you’re in the market for a stud pitcher and looking for someone who should have lower chances of getting punished by home runs, Corbin may be your guy. Against LHPs, the White Sox are ahead of only the Giants and Marlins with a .119 team ISO and they drop to last in the league over the last month with a .073 team ISO. This season, Corbin has allowed a sub-.150 ISO to both sides of the plate on 35.8% Hard Contact. His 26.7% kRate could improve further against a White Sox team that strikes out about 25% of the time. Corbin has proven to be a stronger play at home thus far in the season but all signs point towards him being a fairly safe floor+upside play as the Nationals sit at heavy -200 favorites.

John Means (DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.7k) | LHP | BAL vs. TOR

Means has been sneaky solid at home this season with a 1.53 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 0.81 HR/9, and 23% kRate while allowing a .173 AVG and .216 wOBA. When facing left-handed pitchers, Toronto has hovered around the bottom five-ish rankings in most meaningful offensive statistical categories (wOBA, ISO, OBP, wRC+). Stats obviously aren’t the be-all and end-all but the Blue Jays just haven’t shown much gas in the tank lately. In their last four games they’ve gotten shutout once and scored just two runs thrice. I believe there’s a decent shot at 20 DKFP/35 FDFP for Means in this spot.

Elieser Hernandez (DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k) | RHP | MIA vs. STL

FanDuel players can probably just ignore this suggestion, as it’s mostly just a “way off the wall guy who you probably shouldn’t play but he still makes for an intriguing SP2 punt option” on DraftKings. First, let’s discuss the opponent. The Cardinals are hitting just .217 against RHPs in the last month along with a .282 wOBA, .132 ISO, and 74 wRC+ -- all numbers that rank bottom two in the league during that time. Tonight, their offense will step into the box in one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball at Marlins Park. Hernandez will be making a spot start for the injured Caleb Smith. Hernandez’s two-inning appearance in relief against the Giants didn’t go so well a couple of weeks ago, but he had been putting up absurdly strong numbers in triple-A this year prior to being called up to the bigs. In nine AAA starts across 48 innings, Hernandez had posted a 1.13 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a huge 34.3% kRate while allowing zero home runs. If you consider his 48 minor league innings pitched across nine starts this year, you’ll realize he only goes for about 5.1 IP per start -- so he shouldn’t be expected to go very deep into this game at the Major League level. Still, if he can get close to 15 outs of work and showcase the strikeout upside he’s exhibited in the minor leagues lately, perhaps he surprises with a solid fantasy day. On DraftKings, there are 23 hitters who are priced above him.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Slate Notice: With a healthy 12 O/U in this game, the Cubs (6.3 implied runs) and Rockies (5.7 implied runs) are, by default, elite stacks (if you have the coin to spend up on ‘em).

Minnesota Twins vs. Mike Leake (RHP, Seattle Mariners)

Expected Ownership: Medium

Giving credit where credit is due, Mike Leake pitched a complete game, one-run gem in his last time out on the mound (at home) against Houston. BUT he’ll be stepping on the hill tonight on the road where he has been really pretty awful: 5.57 ERA, 5.05 xFIP, and 15.5% kRate while allowing a .378 wOBA and 3.00 HR/9 on a 26.9% HR/FB Rate. Leake is allowing a .220+ ISO to both sides of the plate this season and will now face a Twins team that is arguably the best offense in baseball and has a ton of power against RHPs (that’s an understatement). You can consider just about anyone in this Twins' order. Some guys who have been hot over the last month against RHPs include Eddie Rosario (.408 wOBA, .284 ISO), Max Kepler (.400 wOBA, .379 ISO), and Miguel Sano (.397 wOBA, .395 ISO). I’m rolling with Rosario as my home run call tonight. 💣

Washington Nationals vs. Manny Banuelos (LHP, Chicago White Sox)

Expected Ownership: Medium

In his last five starts (20.1 innings), Banuelos has surrendered 27 earned runs and just hasn’t been able to stop the bleeding once it gets started. You can attack him from either side of the plate considering he allows a .400+ wOBA and .230+ ISO to all batters. The White Sox also have a pretty lackluster bullpen, so there’s still decent upside with a Nationals stack if they force an early exit from Banuelos. I could understand if you don’t want to pay the premium for Anthony Rendon. Elsewhere, I’d look to save a few bucks with Trea Turner (.406 wOBA, .116 ISO), Brian Dozier (.487 wOBA, .367 ISO), and Howie Kendrick (.455 wOBA, .241 ISO). Kendrick priced at $3k on FanDuel almost feels like a free square.

Miami Marlins vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Expected Ownership: Very Low

No, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to go back to the Marlins -- but then again, the Marlins haven’t made much sense at times this year. They’re only six days removed from a four game stretch where they scored 42 runs. Also, Dakota Hudson has been a very suspect pitcher for much of this season. He only has a 15.3% kRate to go along with a 1.57 WHIP and 4.90 SIERA. Though, he doesn’t necessarily need to rely on strikeouts, as he is posting an extremely high 61.4% Ground Ball Rate (and Miami hits the most ground balls in baseball). Like I said, a Marlins stack doesn’t make much sense on paper and if you wanted to roll out Hudson as a value pitcher, I wouldn’t argue against it. This is more of just a wild card stack to pivot to that no one will have interest in -- especially on a full 15-game slate coming one day after the Marlins were a pretty popular (failed) source of value. I have no specific hitters to suggest going with here but they’re all cheap and I doubt any one batter exceeds much higher than around 3% ownership.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Nolan Arenado (DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.7k) | 3B | vs. LHP Jose Quintana

Arenado is usually a good bet to produce most any day. At home in Coors Field, he’s a great bet to produce. At home in Coors Field while facing a lefty? Opposing teams should almost just put the ball on a tee for him so they can preserve their starter’s pitch count. In 2018 at home against LHPs, Arenado hit for a .420 AVG, .555 wOBA, and .477 ISO on 54.8% Hard Contact. This season, he’s not too far off of similar splits: .419 AVG, .509 wOBA, and .355 ISO on 48.2% Hard Contact. Nothing worries me too much about Quintana, who has struggled away from Wrigley Field. Seven of his eight home runs given up this season have been to righties on the road. Arenado may be chalk tonight, but he would certainly be a scary guy to fade altogether.

Marcus Semien (DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.5k) | SS | vs. Tampa Bay Opener/Long Reliever

Semien is seeing the ball really well over the last week after hitting for a .430 AVG, .485 wOBA, .229 ISO with a pair of home runs and nine RBI. He has several multi-hit games in that span and has started to carry a bit more safety as an affordable and fairly reliable source of fantasy points in the right match-ups. He may not be the most exciting guy to roster but you can’t knock the production he’s spitting out as of late! I believe Semien can find some success against whatever combination of pitchers that the Rays choose to throw out tonight.

Harold Castro (DK: $2.9k, FD: $2k) | 2B/OF | vs. RHP Jakob Junis

Paying down at second base is usually a nice position to go cheap at and it doesn’t get much cheaper than Castro, who also happens to be a .300+ hitter this season (.324 AVG vs. RHP). Throw in a match-up with Junis, who is allowing LHBs (like Castro) a .324 AVG, .407 wOBA, .245 ISO and .383 OBP and I can’t find much wrong with rolling this guy out. Castro has very little power, so if you’re looking for a home run out of him, you will likely be disappointed. But a couple hits, maybe a double, and a run or two scored/batted in? A very doable stat line for a guy who typically has a decent enough spot in the order (sixth).

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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