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- Top MLB DFS Plays 6/10 | Keeping an Eye on East Coast Weather
Top MLB DFS Plays 6/10 | Keeping an Eye on East Coast Weather
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Hopefully everyone enjoyed their weekend and you're ready to kick off a profitable week across all of your DFS ventures. We’ll get a nine game main slate tonight that looks pretty tricky at first glance. However, if your preferred route is to pay up for pitching and find value elsewhere with your batters, that should be doable tonight. Currently, 11 of 18 teams have an implied total at 4.6 runs or above, and there are even some affordable (and viable) Coors bats that you can take a crack at. But first, we have a few weather situations to monitor closely.
Today’s match-ups with implied totals, moneylines, and postponement risks:
Weather Report ⛅
NYM @ NYY: Very good chance we see some sort of delay here, as they may need to wait for storms to clear before first pitch. Postponement is a real possibility if the system doesn’t move through quickly enough.
ARI @ PHI: The same system affecting New York will have an impact in Philadelphia as well. The worst of the storms could clear sooner here but there is still a considerable delay/PPD risk. I’m keeping players from both of these games in consideration for now. Luckily, these are the first two games of the slate, so we should have a good idea of what these teams plan on doing before contests initially lock.
TEX @ BOS: A delay is also possible in Boston but the rain shouldn’t be as heavy here -- they may play through some lighter stuff. Still not completely safe from postponement risk. Depends on how the forecast updates later in the day.
PIT @ ATL: Potential late start as rain clears early on. No real chance of PPD.
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Chris Sale (DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.8k) | LHP | BOS vs. TEX
If the weather in Boston gets to be too risky later in the day, then I’ll be ready to swap down (likely) to Charlie Morton. But for now, with the way Chris Sale is fooling batters, he is the clear-cut guy to spend up on. Sale leads the slate with a 34.9% kRate on the season and he has boosted that number to an insane 41.6% kRate over his last nine starts. And guess what team strikes out the most against lefties on the road? That would be the Rangers, with a team 31.5% kRate. When they get away from their hitter-dominant home field, they’re a very below average offense with a 79 wRC+. With Joey Gallo still sidelined, Hunter Pence (.317 ISO) and Nomar Mazara (.225 ISO) are the only two batters in the projected lineup with concerning power against lefties. In 173 at-bats, this Rangers offense has just a .168 AVG and .223 OBP against Sale. It makes sense for Boston to be the heaviest favorite of the day at -260 while the Rangers have a 3.1 implied run total.
Anibal Sanchez (DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.3k) | RHP | WAS @ CWS
I don’t think any of the mid-range options today inspire a load of confidence but Sanchez has looked solid enough after stringing together a couple strong starts recently. His last start was against this same White Sox team five days ago when he tossed seven strikeouts and allowed just one earned run (a solo-HR). The main issue I have here is the fact that Sanchez hasn’t eclipsed 90 pitches in his last four starts. But there is still room for upside considering the White Sox often swing the bat pretty carelessly, with a 25.9% kRate against righties -- the third highest mark in baseball. They also don’t have a ton of power top to bottom, with a .154 team ISO (28th). So you definitely may not feel great about rolling out Sanchez, but there’s a decent shot that he returns value -- especially if his pitch count inches back closer towards 90-100 pitches.
Kevin Gausman (DK: $6.4k, FD: $6k) | RHP | ATL vs. PIT
The chalk punt at pitcher tonight, in all likelihood, will be Michael Wacha facing Miami. We’ve seen the Marlins tag up chalk pitchers many, many times this season already so I’m willing to pivot elsewhere. Gausman has been awful in his last two starts -- one which came most recently against this Pirates team. On the season, he has a 6.15 ERA but his 4.50 SIERA is much easier to swallow and is a better mark than nearly half of the other starting pitchers on this slate. Gausman really isn’t suffering from giving up a ton of home runs, with just a 1.05 HR/9 Rate, but his .331 BABIP and 58.4% LOB% have been his undoing. Both of those figures are much, much worse than his career averages and I think we can expect positive regression soon. He’s also pitched better in 31.2 innings at home where he is allowing a very tolerable 4.08 xFIP, .298 wOBA, and 1.26 WHIP with a 24.2% kRate. The Pirates are a mediocre offense and Gausman is in desperate need of a solid outing. I think his chances of returning value are high enough to where I would risk some moderate exposure.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Coors Field Notice: The Rockies (5.6 implied runs) and Cubs (5.2 implied runs) are a couple top stacks by default and won’t be detailed in this section.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Tanner Anderson (RHP, Oakland Athletics)
Expected Ownership: Medium
The A’s are essentially throwing out this Anderson fella to the dogs tonight. They’re simply in need of a spot start from “a guy” and expectations should be in the cellar for Anderson as he goes against one of the best offenses against RHPs. Anderson has made ten starts at the triple-A level this year where he has a paltry 6.26 ERA, 5.95 xFIP, and 14.5% kRate while allowing a .293 AVG, 1.68 WHIP, and 2.30 HR/9. The Rays could be seeing plenty of innings against the A’s below average bullpen in this one. Austin Meadows (.473 wOBA, .308 ISO vs. RHP) is the best bat in this lineup. I’d also look to Brandon Lowe (.385 wOBA, .267 ISO) and Avisail Garcia (.380 wOBA, .191 ISO) as a high upside, though moderately expensive, stack.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Griffin Canning (RHP, Los Angeles Angels)
Expected Ownership: Low
Canning has been very solid in his MLB debut season but he also hasn’t faced an extremely tough gauntlet of teams across his seven starts. The Dodgers are a top two offense against RHPs with their league leading 120 wRC+ as well as a .348 team wOBA (2nd) and .213 team ISO (2nd). Canning allows a 47.1% Fly Ball Rate and 1.64 HR/9 which isn’t a great recipe for success against the Dodgers. It’s also going to be a bit warmer than usual out in LA tonight which can only help hard hit baseballs fly a few feet further. The (likely) two through four part of this order looks like a strong trio of guys to stack: Cody Bellinger (.500 wOBA, .361 ISO), Max Muncy (.370 wOBA, .215 ISO), and Justin Turner (.404 wOBA, .398 OBP).
Miami Marlins vs. Michael Wacha (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)
Expected Ownership: Low/Medium
As I mentioned with Gausman, Wacha seems like he might be a pretty popular guy that people will spend down on tonight. With the way they’ve been playing in recent weeks, I don’t think a Marlins stack is all that sneaky anymore, especially on slates where people want to pay up at pitcher. But it’s still worth gaining some leverage against the Wacha lineups by taking even just two or three of these Miami bats. Wacha lets a ton of guys on base, with a slate-worst 1.78 WHIP and a dangerously high 24% HR/FB Rate. He’s also shown very poor reverse splits, as he is allowing a .316 AVG, .423 wOBA, and .308 ISO to RHBs -- and this is a Miami team full of righties. I’ll look to target guys like Garrett Cooper (.384 wOBA, .425 OBP vs. RHP) and Harold Ramirez (.339 wOBA, .364 OBP). Starlin Castro also has a great BvP case to be made against Wacha, as he is batting .476 against him in his last 24 plate appearances with three home runs and a 1.080 wOBA+ISO.
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
David Peralta (DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.7k) | OF | vs. RHP Jerad Eickhoff
Eickhoff is giving up plenty of power to LHBs, allowing a .333 ISO while surrendering five home runs in just 17 innings. Peralta is looking to get some momentum back after a brief stint on the IL but, on the season, he is tearing up right-handed pitching with a .399 wOBA and .267 ISO on 42.3% Hard Contact. Peralta isn’t hitting a ton of fly balls, with only a 27.9% FB Rate. But luckily, for him, Eickhoff is surrendering a huge 45% FB Rate on 42.2% Hard Contact. Assuming the weather allows this game to play, Peralta will be my call to go yard tonight. 💣
Yoan Moncada (DK: $4.4k, FD: $4k) | 3B | vs. RHP Anibal Sanchez
I know I highlighted Sanchez above in the pitcher’s section but if there’s one guy in this White Sox order that he probably wants no part of, it’s Yoan (who had the solo-HR against him five days ago). Sanchez allows a huge .404 wOBA and .300 ISO to lefties and is giving up a 27.3% HR/FB Rate. Moncada is a switch hitter that has been much more dangerous against RHPs and all 12 of his HRs this season have come against them. Moncada’s HR/FB Rate mirrors Sanchez’s exactly at 27.3% and in the last week, he’s been extremely hot, hitting for a .499 wOBA, .318 ISO with a pair of home runs. He’s a great one-off hitter to roll out in an otherwise mediocre offense. If that ARI/PHI game gets postponed, consider Moncada to be my back-up home run call. 💣
Carlos Gonzales (DK: $3k, FD: $3.1k) | OF | vs. RHP German Marquez
This is pretty much exclusively about gaining some Coors Field exposure with a really cheap bat in Carlos Gonzalez. With just a .298 wOBA/.122 ISO vs. RHP, Gonzalez isn’t exactly crushing the ball. Marquez doesn’t provide a great match-up either with a .286 wOBA and .120 ISO given up to LHBs. But, particularly on DraftKings, you’ll rarely see a Coors bat this cheap. Gonzalez will also likely slot in at fifth in the order, as he has done in the majority of his starts with the Cubs. After hitting a home run last night on Sunday Night Baseball (after Monday DFS prices were already released), I predict he’ll be extremely popular on DK, so feel free to fade in GPPs.
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