By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

If memory serves me correctly, I believe this may be the first 15-game slate of the season! With all 30 teams in play on a single slate, there is a massive amount of things to dig into so I won’t be rambling much in this intro.

I do want to note that I’ll be making a slight change with the newsletters. Essentially, I’ll be looking to make the newsletter as a whole a bit more concise which will hopefully allow for these articles to be more easily digestible and not so much of a lengthy read. Today's newsletter may not fit that criterion just yet since today features such a huge slate, but for most smaller/mid-sized slates, these bad boys should be a bit shorter in length moving forward. Feel free to let me know in the LineStar chat if you like the more concise format!

Alright, let the Friday mayhem begin!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

By way of some small miracle, there are very weather concerns to be had on this colossal slate of games! It looks like CIN @ STL could be the one spot with any notable trouble.

TEX @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Small chance of rain early but unlikely to stop play if anything does come through.

CIN @ STL (8:15 ET, 8 O/U): Some rain will be in the STL area throughout the evening which adds some delay risk here if a particularly heavy batch rolls over the ballpark. They could likely play through any rain that does fall but that chance for an in-game delay will add a little extra liability toward starting pitchers.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.9k | vs. COL

Out of all 30 starters today, Musgrove checks in as the priciest pitcher on the board but likely the safest. At home this season, he’s rocking a 1.73 ERA, 2.84 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, and a strong 27.7% kRate. His 86.5 mph average exit velocity allowed is also the lowest on the slate. Outside of Coors Field, the Rockies are hitting just .218 against RHPs with an awful 67 wRC+ and an MLB-worst .087 ISO.

Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.8k | vs. OAK

Any halfway decent arm is always worth considering against the A’s and McKenzie is more than halfway decent. His 22.3% kRate is down this season from his career 27.0% kRate but his 0.86 WHIP is also the lowest on the slate, so he’s permitting very few base runners. The biggest concern would be his slate-high 55.3% Flyball%, but Oakland has a league-worst 6.6% HR/FB Rate vs. RHPs. McKenzie had his best outing of the season against this Oakland A’s team back on May 1st when he posted a box score of: 6.1 IP, 96 pitches, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 7 K, and earned the win (+ quality start) -- good for 28.7 DKFP/50 FDFP.

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. PIT

Strider is a nice potential value option. As he continues to work in as a rotational starter, he threw a season-high 87 pitches at Coors Field last Saturday. Though he has pitched fewer innings than most SPs today, he does lead the slate with a massive 36.8% kRate & 15.2% Swinging Strike Rate. He will need to cut down on the walks, however (13.5% BB%). Over the last two weeks, PIT leads the MLB with a 27.3% kRate. Strider is primarily a two-pitch guy who relies on his explosive 4-seam fastball (98.3 mph avg velo) and a pretty nasty slider. Combined against those two pitches this season, PIT is hitting just .204 (worst in MLB) with a 26.7% kRate (3rd highest).

Kyle Gibson (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.5k | vs. ARI

Gibson is looking like a tempting GPP leverage play with his 3% pOwn%. He hasn’t exploded for a huge outing ever since his dominant game against OAK to open the season but, in his defense, he’s had a slew of difficult match-ups since then. He’s averaging 40.7% more FP at home where he has a sharp 2.99 xFIP, 23.8% kRate, and 0.98 WHIP. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, the D-Backs are hitting just .211 with a 25.8% kRate (3rd highest).

Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.5k | @ ATL

This is another huge GPP leverage play here but Contreras has looked great in his fairly limited work this season (23.1 IP). Contreras holds a 1.93 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and 27.4% kRate. His 4-seamer (49.9% of pitches thrown) and slider (27.6%) have accounted for 77.5% of his pitches. While the Braves do have a .196 ISO and 48 HRs hit off of those two pitches, they’ve struck out with a league-high 29.9% kRate against them as well. Contreras threw a season-high 98 pitches in his last game so he’s looking fully stretched out and he’s likely to check in with around 5% ownership.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

New York Yankees vs. Wade Miley (LHP), CHC

Miley missed the first month of the season while dealing with an elbow injury and he made just three starts before going on the IL with a shoulder injury. He didn’t make any rehab starts since then so this will be his first real live game action in nearly three weeks. He’s likely to face at least some sort of pitch count here but, while he’s out there, he’ll be up against a Yankees lineup that continues to be red hot with a 142 wRC+ over the last two weeks and a 161 wRC+ over the last week. A somewhat surprisingly good Cubs bullpen could be handling most of the innings today, but I’ll side with the lethal Yankees bats over just about any bullpen arms any day of the week.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres | Sneaky Bat: Jose Trevino

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Elvin Rodriguez (RHP), DET

The Blue Jays will stand out as another top stack today. Not only are they the hottest offense in the league right now (L2Wks: .308 AVG, .400 wOBA, .231 ISO, 163 wRC+ -- all rank 1st in MLB), but they get to face a young rookie pitcher who has shown some real struggles. In his 16.0 IP, Elvin Rodriguez has come away with a 10.13 ERA, 5.04 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP, and a .435 opp wOBA along with some very poor statcast numbers. In his last outing, the Yankees absolutely ambushed him to the tune of 11 hits (4 HRs) and 10 runs across just 4.1 IP. However, it was later revealed that the Yankees figured out that Rodriguez was tipping his pitches (you can go to JomBoy Media on YouTube to see the full breakdown). So some of the rookie’s numbers could be heavily skewed. It’ll be interesting to see how the kid responds and adjusts in this game. One downside here is that the Tigers bullpen has been solid and they’ve received a good deal of rest this week.

Favorite TOR Bats: George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vlad Guererro Jr. | Sneaky Bat: Santiago Espinal (also love Alejandro Kirk if he’s starting)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

This section has been profitable the last couple of days with the Rays stack on Wednesday and the Twins stack that had a home run derby off of Gerrit Cole last night. So, let’s see if we can get some good fortune with this Rangers stack. The Rangers bats have been productive lately -- L2Wks: .335 wOBA, .200 ISO, 122 wRC+. They draw a match-up with RHP Davis Martin who is making just his third career start. Martin pitched well in his MLB debut against KC but did not have a great outing against the Rays in his last time out (5.1 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 ER, 1 K). He also gave up nine HRs across 55.0 IP in the minor leagues this year so he does tend to give up that long ball. The White Sox bullpen has been nothing special either and their 1.41 WHIP is the 6th highest in the MLB.

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Mitch Garver | Sneaky Bat: Ezequiel Duran

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), CHC

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

OF George Springer | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Elvin Rodriguez (RHP), DET

SS Trea Turner | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Jakob Junis (RHP), SF

C Sal Perez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bruce Zimmermann (LHP), BAL

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Drew Rasmussen(RHP), TB

3B Eugenio Suarez | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Austin Hays | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C/OF MJ Melendez | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bruce Zimmermann (LHP), BAL

1B Joey Votto | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

OF Odubel Herrera | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

2B/3B Ezequiel Duran | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

OF Oscar Gonzalez | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF George Springer | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Elvin Rodriguez (RHP), DET

IT’S TIME FOR ANOTHER SPRINGER DINGER! Elvin Rodriguez is rolling in with a 3.38 HR/9 Rate this season and 85% of his pitch mix has been either four-seamers or sliders. Springer has posted a .265 ISO against those pitches this season with six HRs. Given Rodriguez’s 23.1% HR/FB Rate, if Springer just gets under one, it’ll have a great chance of leaving the park… dead ball be damned!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Roansy Contreras OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | -152 (FanDuel) | 3.0 Units

I have Contreras written up as a GPP leverage play above in the DFS pitcher section, so I’ll just reiterate what I had mentioned: “Contreras holds a 1.93 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and 27.4% kRate this season. His 4-seamer (49.9% of pitches thrown) and slider (27.6%) have accounted for 77.5% of his pitches. While the Braves do have a .196 ISO and 48 HRs hit off of those two pitches, they’ve struck out with a league-high 29.9% kRate against them as well.” Contreras has hit the over on 4.5 Ks in four of his last five outings. And in two of those games where he threw over 4.5 Ks, he wasn’t even the starter and only pitched three innings. While the odds are a little shorter with this prop, I feel good enough about it to make it a three-unit bet.

Jose Ramirez OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +115 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

If JRam gets a hit in this game, odds are it’s going for extra bases. While his .267 AVG over the last month is nothing eye-popping, 15 of his 23 hits in that span have been XBHs (5 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HRs). He is striking out just 6.0% of the time in that same time frame while getting walked 14.0% of the time. A’s starter Paul Blackburn is not a huge strikeout pitcher (18.9% kRate) to begin with and he also doesn’t walk many hitters (6.0% BB%). So, expect Ramirez to make plenty of contact on the pitches he sees from Blackburn today. If one of those finds the gap, Ramirez may run into a double and he’s not a bad bet to go yard either.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!