By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Thursday brings us wall-to-wall baseball action spanning from noon 'til night, so here’s to hoping those who dabbled in the early slate are finding some success. This evening’s main slate provides us with a modest six-game selection, though potential messy weather out in Washington may slim this one down to five games. The pitching options aren’t very deep today and if the Washington game does get PPD, that will also knock off the top arm of the slate in Max Scherzer. But, when there is seemingly a lack of top pitching options, that usually means a higher percentage of offenses are in smash spots. That indeed seems to be the case here with six teams currently holding an implied total of at least 4.8 runs. I believe we can get creative with what we have to work with here and, with any luck, some green screens will head our way!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals & moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

SF @ WAS: As mentioned in the intro, this is really the only game to keep an eye on weather-wise. Scattered storms are going to be moving through the general area and the coverage currently looks like it will be heaviest between 6-10 pm ET. They might have to get a little lucky to get this game in, but I could see some sort of delay and play scenario happen. A postponement is absolutely on the table as well… it’s essentially a coin flip at the time of me writing this. Anyone who has played MLB DFS for a while knows how finicky the Nationals can be with weather decisions so track this one all the way up to lock (7:05 ET).

(For the sake of this newsletter, I will not be mentioning any players from this game)

Update: A couple hours after writing the outlook above, and the PPD risk factor here seems to be lowered. Weather could still be dicey in Washington, but it seems more likely than not that they'll be able to play.

NYY @ MIN: 90-95 degrees throughout this game with less-than-stellar starting pitchers taking the mound -- no surprise to see an 11 run O/U here. In similar conditions yesterday between these same teams, we saw 15 total runs scored on 26 combined hits which included seven home runs. Target Field is a neutral hitter’s park, but some warm weather never hurts the run upside.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Trevor Rogers (LHP) | DK: $9k, FD: $10.1k | vs. COL

Even if Max Scherzer ($11.4k/$11k) and the Nationals don’t get knocked off the slate due to weather, Trevor Rogers is going to be an attractive option, and rightfully so. He has been one of the more consistent SPs this season and in twelve starts, he has given up more than two earned runs just once (and that was a three ER game on the road at Washington over a month ago). Rogers holds a sterling 1.97 ERA on the year with a 3.44 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, .266 wOBA, 29.7% kRate, and 14.6% SwStr%. He’s also preventing players from going deep with just a 0.39 HR/9 Rate and 2.6% Barrel%. When the Rockies are facing lefties outside of Coors Field, they’re hitting just .213 with a .286 wOBA, 79 wRC+, and they have struck out 27.5% of the time. Rogers will be certified chalk on this small slate (and I’m talking probably 60-70% owned even in GPPs, especially if there’s no Scherzer). No issues rolling with him in cash lineups, but figure out whether you want to go under or over-exposed to him if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry). It never really gives you an edge to stay even to the field in terms of ownership.

Frankie Montas (RHP) | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. KC

Montas is looking like the go-to mid-range option today. He’ll be toeing the rubber at home in the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum where he has a 26.5% kRate (vs. 16.5% kRate on the road) and a decent 3.86 xFIP (4.83 xFIP on the road). His 5.31 ERA at home through eight starts may seem concerning but he’s been quite unlucky as teams have a .353 BABIP against him this season (in Oakland), which is due to regress fairly drastically. Kansas City is a streaky offense that is struggling quite a bit right now, having scored just one run in three of their last four games. They also have just an 84 wRC+ against RHPs on the road this season (ranks 25th) with a .288 wOBA (26th) and .132 ISO (27th). Barring an early implosion, Montas is usually good for about 100 pitches so there’s a strong chance we get six solid innings out of him this evening. The Athletics are the third heaviest favorite on the slate with -150 moneyline odds and the Royals have just a 3.6 implied run total.

Zack Greinke (RHP) | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8k | @ BOS

So much ownership is going to land on the two aforementioned pitchers (and Scherzer if they play). As such, Greinke stands out as a worthy contrarian option for tournaments. The strikeouts are down for Greinke this year as he has posted only an 18.4% kRate, but really he’s never been a huge strikeout guy (22.3% career kRate). Rather, he makes his money by simply eating up a ton of innings while (usually) keeping the run damage to a minimum and not giving up free bases (4.9% Walk Rate). Over his last five games, Greinke is 4-1 and has gone at least seven innings deep in four of ‘em while posting a 2.37 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and opponents have hit just .195 against him with a .229 wOBA. Four of those five games came against some pretty stiff competition as well: @OAK, vs. LAD, vs. SD, @TOR. On the year, Boston is a top 10 offense against RHPs (104 wRC+, ranks 9th) but they have had some issues as of late -- their 85 wRC+ against RHPs over the last two weeks ranks 25th and they have just a .288 OBP in that span. There’s definitely a window of opportunity for Greinke to go seven or eight innings here and push for around 25 DKFP/40 FDFP.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ The Yankees are quite easily going to be the most appealing stack option today. Their opposition, the Twins, will set up nicely as well in a game that possesses an excellent offensive environment.

Houston Astros vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

The Astros lead the league with a 128 wRC+ against lefty pitching this season. Over the last two weeks, they’re annihilating southpaws even more -- in that span they’re hitting .311 as a team with a .395 wOBA, .230 ISO, and 160 wRC+ while striking out just 14.1% of the time. Rodriguez lasted 4.2 innings against Houston just ten days ago when he allowed six runs on seven hits. In 61 plate appearances, the current Astros roster is hitting .352 with a .454 wOBA against ERod. When healthy, this Houston lineup is simply too difficult for pitchers to consistently mow down, so while I do believe Rodriguez is a solid starting pitcher, he’ll have his hands full today.

Miami Marlins vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

It definitely may not seem like it, but the Marlins have been a fringe top 10 offense against right-handed pitching lately (110 wRC+ last two weeks, ranks 9th) and they’ll be in a quality spot to succeed today. Chi Chi Gonzalez has a 6.33 ERA and 5.10 xFIP on the road this year and he has struck out just 12.3% of batters this season. If the Marlins manage to knock him around early, Gonzalez will be supported by a Rockies bullpen that has an MLB worst 1.53 WHIP as well as a 4.61 xFIP (3rd worst). I wouldn’t call them “world beaters” but Miami has better than a puncher’s chance to plate five to seven runs. Their expected top five batters (Chisholm Jr., Marte, Aguilar, Dickerson, and Duvall) will all have some stack appeal.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

This is one of those scenarios where a “good pitchers vs. a good offense” will lead most people to simply avoiding both sides of the battle. While the “White Sox vs. lefties” flow chart hasn’t been as effective lately, you still have to keep them in mind even though, more often than not, Ryu is a strong enough pitcher to go six or seven innings without giving up more than a few hits and a couple runs. On the season, Chicago ranks third with a 126 wRC+ vs. LHPs. Ryu has been slightly worse on the road this year and most recently got beat up in his last start against Houston when he allowed six earned runs on seven hits (two HRs) and struck out just one hitter. The White Sox lineup is not too far behind Houston in terms of offensive production this year, so if you’re running a lot of lineups on this slate, throw a couple CWS stacks out there and see what happens.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. J.A. Happ (LHP), MIN

OF Mark Canha | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), KC

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Dallas Kuechel (LHP), CWS

2B/SS Jorge Polanco | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Michael King (RHP), NYY

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B Miguel Sano | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Michael King (RHP), NYY

1B/OF Andrew Vaughn | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

OF Clint Frazier | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. J.A. Happ (LHP), MIN

C Martin Maldonado | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

OF Trevor Larnach | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Michael King (RHP), NYY

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. J.A. Happ (LHP), MIN

Anyone surprised by this pick? Probably not. When you get Aaron Judge in the batter’s box against a lefty, good things usually happen (except for the opposing team). Judge has five homers against lefties this season in just 64 at-bats. He’s producing a 59.3% HardHit% with an average 97.0 mph exit velocity, 12.2% Barrel%, and 31.3% HR/FB%. Happ is allowing a 49.3% Fly Ball Rate to righty hitters this season. With 90-95 degree game time temperatures in Minnesota tonight… Judge is about the best bet on the slate to go yard.

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Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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