Top MLB DFS Plays 6/1 | Up in Smoak

June 01, 2019

Written by @ZeroInDenver

Happy Saturday everyone. Unfortunately, Greg isn't able to do the newsletter this weekend, so you have me (@ZeroInDenver) filling in for him. 

I'm still going to follow the same format, but my approach is 180 degrees different from Greg (and Ryan, for that matter). For starters, I don't look at numbers hardly. It sounds crazy, I know. I've said this in chat, and I'll die on this hill. Stats only tell you what happened, not necessarily what's going to happen. I'm strictly a tournament player these days, so a lot of my focus is on teams that have a higher probability of going off but will also fly under the radar. You know the teams. They're the one everyone asks "why was anyone on X team last night? What did I miss?" Sometimes it's simply a matter of ignoring what jumps out the most (since we can all see the same stats anyway) and look at places where we have the most leverage when "what's supposed to happen doesn't." 

All that said, I'm going to focus on the main slate for tonight. Weekend slates can get a little weird between FanDuel and DraftKings, but the main slate is pretty consistent. 

As of this morning, no weather issues to speak of. PLAY BALL!

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Zack Greinke (DK: $9.2K, FD: $10K) | RHP | ARI vs NYM

Let me remind you of something that you already know: Top-tier pitchers have pretty much been a disappointment all season, at least for DFS purposes. If I'm spending $10K+ for a pitcher, I need that player to push 30 points on DraftKings (50 points on FanDuel). Otherwise, I'm praying to the DFS gods and asking for a ONE TIME from a $3500 second baseman that hasn't hit the ball past the infield all season. Not a good look. 

In other words, I don't think tonight is the night to spend up on Verlander or even Kershaw. Anything can happen, but I'd rather take my chances on Greinke at home against the Mets. I think it makes for a better use of salary where you can fit in some decent bats as well. 

Jack Flaherty (DK: $7.2K, FD: $8.1K) | LHP | STL vs CHC

I did an early build and have a good amount of Flaherty exposure. This makes me feel things. For starters, I think he's a great play in cash games. Call it a free square and move on. For tournaments, I'm not as thrilled, at least on FanDuel. If he's higher owned, it doesn't give me any leverage to play him as well. For DraftKings, I'm going to have to find spots where I can differentiate in my SP2 and bats. Just something to consider. 

Jose Urena (DK: $5.7K, FD: $7.4K) | RHP | MIA @ SDP

I'll be honest, nothing really impresses me about Urena. I think he's overpriced on FanDuel, but he's worth the risk in tournaments on DraftKings at $5700. I basically look at it this way: What's the probability he can get me 15-18 points tonight? Outside of THE GREAT HUNTER RENFROE, not much of the Padres lineup worries me. Besides, at $5700 for an SP2, that leaves a lot of room for decent bats. 

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

No need to mention Coors at this point. Load up on both teams if you want, but as you might have found last night, stacking chalk doesn't always get you that far if it goes off. Instead, let's focus on a few other targets. 

Houston Astros vs. Brett Anderson (LHP – Oakland Athletics)

Sometimes y'all make picking stacks too complicated. The LineStar app simplifies things pretty well. You can sort pitchers by "Daily Matchup." Scroll to the bottom and you'll see pitchers with the worst matchup today. Here's our bottom 4. Between the 4, I'll take my chances with Houston. Chirinos, Gurriel, Bregman, Reddick, Fisher. EZ GAME. 

Chicago Cubs vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP - St Louis Cardinals)

Again, I'm just using the basic sorters with the LineStar app and sorting by "Loved." Here are the top 4. What this tells me is who is likely to be popular tonight. In tournaments, leverage is huge. So let's say that Flaherty is the most owned pitcher on the slate. If you stack Cubs and he gives up a few bombs, that's huge for your lineups. Rizzo, Bryant, Heyward, Schwarber are my dudes in that stack. 

Los Angeles Angels vs. Tommy Milone (LHP - Seattle Mariners)

I'm going to give you another angle on this. Now sort pitchers by "Hated." What this tells me is the pitchers that LineStar users are possibly avoiding in lineups. If they're avoiding them, doesn't it make sense to stack against them? This is something you can backtest easily as well. Look at past slates and use these sorters. Sometimes you get fished, but sometimes you'll find a gem that you (and the rest of the DFS population) overlooked. Pujols, Trout, Calhoun, La Stella are my favorites in that stack. 

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Justin Smoak (DK: $5.2K, FD: $3.8K) | OF | vs. Gray (RHP)

If you have to play someone from Coors (and I don't think that's a bad idea) then Smoak is my favorite. Let everyone else chase Story and Arenado. I think Smoak flies a little under the radar for Coors and has been hitting the ball well. He just doesn't have anything to show for it. Smoak checks my boxes though, with a hard contact rate over 38% and a exit velocity over 93 mph with an average distance of 258. I think he knocks one out tonight. 

Kyle Schwarber (DK: $3.1K, FD: $3.3K) | 2B | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP)

This is a gut call more than anything. His stats will show he's probably a bad play tonight if you look at his BvP and numbers over the past month. However, the dude's been hitting the ball hard, he just doesn't have the results to show for it. Like I said, it's just a gut feeling that he makes someone say in chat tonight "I've played this bum for 3 games and as soon as I don't he hits a HR smh."

Mitch Haniger (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.9K) | OF | vs. Heaney (LHP)

Rounding out my players that haven't done anything lately but I like them anyway is Mitch Haniger. Haniger is my BvP play of the night. He's had good numbers in his last 15 plate appearances against Heaney. 

Best of luck today! Don't forget to give the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney a listen! You can find it linked at the top of the page.

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