Top MLB DFS Plays 6/1 | New Month, New Money!

June 01, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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I hope everyone had a nice Memorial Day weekend. We’re getting right back to business and like Jasonr345 says in chat… “New month, new money” so let’s kick June off with a bang! We have a massive 14-game main slate to work with this evening and fortunately, there are minimal weather concerns. One note: the Blue Jays will be returning to Sahlen Field in Buffalo, New York as their home ballpark. It’s not on quite the same level as TD Ballpark (aka “Coors Field South”) in Dunedin, FL in terms of high-run production, but it still stood out as a favorable hitter’s park when they played there in the shortened 2020 season. Alright, good luck tonight guys‘n gals… let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

Overall, there are no overly concerning weather threats.

PHI @ CIN: They could see some light rain in Cincy but anything that falls should be playable.

PIT @ KC: Slight chance of a light passing shower.

BOS @ HOU: Roof at Minute Maid Park will be CLOSED. Also, I hear it’s “Dollar Hot Dog Night” so maybe take advantage of that if you’re in the Houston area.

NYM @ ARI: The roof at Chase Field will be OPEN. Temps in Phoenix will be near 100 degrees at the time of the first pitch. Bump to bats.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Bassitt (RHP) | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.3k | @ SEA

I can’t quite tell just yet whether or not Bassitt or Tyler Glasnow (DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.7k) will be the chalk pitcher of the slate, but both make enticing cash game options. Bassitt is definitely checking all the boxes as of late and is coming off of a CGSO in his last start. He’s posting a 1.00 WHIP on the season alongside a solid 3.58 xFIP and 26.1% kRate while allowing a low .268 wOBA to opponents. The Mariners rank 24th in the MLB with an 86 wRC+ vs. RHPs and their .205 batting average is the lowest in the Majors. They’re also striking out at a pretty high clip (25.5% kRate vs. RHPs). T-Mobile Park in Seattle is a great pitcher’s park to target and the Mariners will have just a 3.4 implied run total heading into this game.

Eric Lauer (LHP) | DK: $8.4k, FD: $7.8k | vs. DET

Man, suggesting Eric Lauer makes me slightly uncomfortable but he has looked rock solid this season and you can’t really ask for a juicier opponent than the one he draws today. Lauer’s sample size of 22.0 IP this season is smaller than most, but regardless, he is averaging exactly one strikeout per inning alongside a strong 2.45 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, and he’s showing excellent command of his pitches evidenced by his 3.4% Walk Rate. Against LHPs, Detroit ranks dead last in baseball with a 67 wRC+ and they strike out more than any other team (31.0% kRate). We’re looking for a floor of about 20 DKFP/35 FDFP, and I’m expecting him to deliver that today.

Matthew Boyd (LHP) | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.5k | @ MIL

Honestly, why not stay in the same game as Lauer and look for his counterpart to maybe contribute to what could potentially be a super un-sexy pitcher’s duel? Boyd has struggled in his last couple of games but he did pitch well enough to score at least 16.6 DKFP/29 FDFP in seven of his first eight starts while putting up a respectable 1.13 WHIP on the season. Milwaukee is a slightly below-average team against lefties (98 wRC+) and they have struck out 27.8% of the time against southpaws as well. Boyd’s 19.7% kRate in 2021 doesn’t instill a ton of excitement but he should be viewed as more of an “innings eater” who typically pushes for around 100 pitches most games. He’d be a GPP only play, and likely only as an SP2 option on DraftKings since the $8,500 price tag on FanDuel is just a bit too costly for my taste. But there is potential for him to post his best fantasy performance of the year and he’ll likely be, at most, about 5% owned.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ Coors Field is in play so the Rockies and Rangers should draw some consideration and fairly high ownership. Alongside those two teams, I’d look towards the Twins and Dodgers as a couple other solid stack options.

Kansas City Royals vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

The KC stack will lose some appeal if Adalberto Mondesi is unable to suit up after tweaking his hammy yesterday, but they’re still drawing one of the lowest quality starting pitcher’s on the slate. Crowe has posted a 5.67 ERA, 4.93 xFIP, and 1.67 WHIP on the season -- all figures which rank him either last or second to last among today’s starters. He’s shown poor reverse splits as well, as he has a 7.98 ERA and 1.84 WHIP against RHBs this year while allowing a .414 wOBA. The Royals bats are running a bit hot and they’ve averaged 6.5 runs/gm over their last four. Again, it would help if Mondesi is able to go tonight, but I still like this spot for Kansas City and could see them as a viable squad to target when searching for a team to stack three or four guys with.

New York Mets vs. Caleb Smith (LHP), ARI

I’m loving the potential for offense in this game with the Chase Field roof set to be open and temperatures in Phoenix touching 100 degrees at the time of first pitch. The Mets have displayed their fair share of struggles offensively in 2021 but a few of their bats are really starting to heat up. They’ll draw a favorable match-up on paper against Caleb Smith and a struggling D-Backs bullpen.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Miami Marlins vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR

Robbie Ray had a nice run in late-April and much of May where he strung together six consecutive starts of at least 22 DKFP/38 FDFP. For that simple reason, he probably draws a fair amount of ownership today. However, Ray comes into today allowing an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph, 50.7% HardHit%, and 25.9% HR/FB%. As mentioned in the intro, the Blue Jays are now back playing in Buffalo, NY at Sahlen Field. While not as good as their other temporary home at TD Ballpark in Dunedin, it is still a solid hitter’s park and Ray has had no issue with allowing some homers this season. I wouldn’t go overboard here, but I could see a three-man Miami stack having some high-leverage potential in GPPs today.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

OF Austin Meadows | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

Meadows has been scorching hot as of late and has homered in three of his last four. Also, while there is debate about whether or not BvP really matters, Meadows does have three home runs against German in just nine plate appearances. I’m anxious to see if he can keep swinging the big bat and the Rays clean-up man will be worthy of some one-off consideration today.

C Mitch Garver | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bruce Zimmerman (LHP), BAL

Garver is hitting a nice stride over the last couple of weeks. In his last nine games (35 PA), he’s hitting .333 with a .529 wOBA, .417 ISO, and 247 wRC+ (which ranks 4th among MLB hitters in that span). Zimmerman has been highly erratic throughout this season and has allowed 2.66 HR/9 when pitching at home in Camden Yards. Pretty good chance Garver continues to find success.

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

It’s hard to look past Garcia at $4,200 on DK today. The man has belted 16 homers this season and is tied with the three superstar “Juniors” (Vlad Jr., Tatis Jr., Acuna Jr.) for the MLB lead in dingers. Now he gets his first career at-bats in Coors Field. German Marquez is obviously no slouch, but this is simply too nice of a spot for Adolis to keep smashing.

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Austin Slater | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

1B/2B Jonathan Schoop | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

OF Andrew Benintendi | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

OF Chas McCormick | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/OF Garrett Cooper | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR

Fun fact: Cooper’s .584 wOBA and 280 wRC+ over the last two weeks is bested only by Fernando Tatis Jr. (.603 wOBA, 290 wRC+) in that same span. He is batting .469 over his last ten games while blasting a trio of homers. With Robbie Ray’s propensity for routinely giving up multiple home runs per outing, I believe Cooper is a strong candidate to go yard this evening.

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