By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

We flip the calendar to the month of June, and you know what that means -- new month, new money! Some early games are going on that I’m sure many are invested in (and I see there was some BIG DRAMA in chat surrounding the Marlins game one starting pitcher today), but the first main slate of the month will be a mid-sized eight-gamer. I must say, I don’t *love* this slate on the surface. The pitching and hitting/stack options just seem very ‘meh’ to me. But, hey, there have absolutely been uglier slates that have come and gone -- many of which ended up being quite entertaining and profitable. So let’s see what we can cook up with this slate today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Unlike yesterday, there are not many warm weather games on this slate. SEA @ BAL will be the one game with temps around 90 degrees at first pitch. There will be one or two games we’ll need to keep an eye on as far as delay/PPD threats go.

LAA @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): This is the main game to keep an eye on today. Rain chances spike significantly shortly after the scheduled first pitch. And it seems as if once the rain starts, it could be around for a while. With some luck, the ballpark could avoid trouble entirely but as of now, a delay/PPD is possible. Check the outlook here closer to lock.

CIN @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): They’re likely to see some rain in this game but it’s expected to be lighter stuff that they could play through. If a heavy batch of rain rolls over the park, that could trigger a delay. A PPD isn’t 100% out of the picture but seems unlikely.

Note: For now, I’ll be keeping players from both games within DFS consideration.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.7k | @ BAL

It does seem as if Baltimore gets picked on a lot in DFS with opposing pitchers. Considering they’re much more of an “average” offense this season rather than a downright bad offense, there should be a bit of hesitancy when attacking them. But it’s still not a bad spot for Robbie Ray today either. After a fairly ho-hum start to the season, Ray has been picking up some steam lately, mostly in the strikeout department. Over his last four starts (23.2 IP), he has posted a stout 37.8% kRate and he racked up at least eight Ks in each of those four games. While he does also have a lackluster 5.32 ERA in that stretch, his 2.53 xFIP indicates he has pitched much better than that ERA would indicate. The home runs are an issue but that’s kinda always been the case with Ray. While Baltimore has played noticeably better against southpaw pitching lately, on the season they still rank towards the bottom with an 83 wRC+ vs. LHPs (4th lowest) with a 26.2% kRate (2nd highest). Don’t be shocked if Ray gives up another home run or two -- this is the warmest game environment on the slate, after all. But the strikeouts should continue to be there and it’s reasonable to assume he’ll extend his streak of throwing 8+ strikeouts to five games today.

Garrett Whitlock (RHP), BOS | DK: $7k, FD: $7k | vs. CIN

Time to turn the handle on the hypothetical ‘Garrett Whitlock slot machine’ again to see if it hits. Whitlock brings some legitimate strikeout upside to the table with his 27.3% kRate and he has a solid 3.49 ERA next to a slightly better 3.22 xFIP through 38.2 IP this season. While he did give up some hits and a couple of runs in his last start (vs. BAL), he did reach a season high on his pitch count with 84 throws across six full innings (also a season high in IP). The Reds aren’t the complete dumpster fire that they were to start the season and they’ve actually managed to go 6-3 over their last nine games. But they’re still an offense that can be attacked with opposing pitching. The Reds have an 84 wRC+ vs. RHPs on the year to go with a high 24.2% kRate. While their offense has flourished at home (5.86 runs/gm), that hasn’t been the case on the road where they’ve averaged only 2.89 runs/gm which makes them the second-worst road offense in the MLB ahead of only the Detroit Tigers. Of course, this game is in Boston today where the Red Sox check in with very heavy -200 moneyline odds and the Reds carry a low 3.8 implied run total. Reminder: keep an eye out for the weather here.

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB | DK: $6.2k, FD: $8k | @ TEX

After beginning the season out of the bullpen, Springs continues to transition further into his role as a starter in the Rays rotation. He has now thrown 80 pitches in back-to-back starts while reaching at least 5.2 IP in both games as well. In 33.1 IP this season, he has accounted for a sharp 1.62 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, and a slate-low 0.81 WHIP. As far as strikeout upside goes, he checks the box there. Not only is his 26.8% kRate well above league average, but his 14.6% Swinging Strike Rate is a borderline elite number. Now, as far as the match-up goes, it’s not the best. The Rangers have been a top 10 offense against LHPs this season (113 wRC+, ranks 8th) and they enter today with a 6-1 record over their last seven with a league-leading 150 wRC+ over the last week. With that being said, Springs has shown enough promise this year to make him a viable pay-down DFS option today -- specifically as an SP2 candidate on DraftKings. He won’t be the safest play on the board, but another five or six strong innings is doable for Springs. The Rays are slight -120 road favorites in this game and Vegas is pinning the Rangers with a fairly low 4.1 implied run total.

Also Consider:

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.5k | vs. MIN

Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.1k | @ DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Seattle Mariners vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

Bradish is straight up not having a good time in his rookie campaign. Okay, I’m sure he’s hyped to be in the big leagues, but opposing offenses have been beating him up pretty good which has led to a 7.31 ERA through his six starts (28.1 IP). Some bad baseball luck has played a part in that lofty ERA as his 3.86 xFIP and 3.71 SIERA are both pretty decent figures. But he’s been getting hit hard quite often (43.9% HardHit%) and allowing numerous barreled balls (12.2% Barrel%) with a high 92.6 mph average exit velocity. His reverse splits have been particularly bad so Mariners RHBs get a bump today. Against RHBs, Bradish has posted a 10.57 ERA, 5.23 xFIP, 0.495 opp wOBA, 1.83 WHIP, and is allowing a whopping 4.11 HR/9. The Mariners have been trending back up lately and have posted a 141 wRC+ over the last week and a 132 wRC+ over the last two weeks. The Orioles have a decent but not dominant bullpen so the potential continues with this stack even when Bradish’s day is done.

Favorite SEA Bats: Ty France, Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez | Sneaky Bat: Mike Ford

Boston Red Sox vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

Reminder: Keep an eye on the weather here.

Lo and behold, the Boston bats have finally started to come back down to earth following three performances of two runs or less within their last four games. They still posted a 12-run outing in the other game so it isn’t as if all upside has suddenly vanished with these guys. They’re still rocking with an incredible 157 wRC+ over the last two weeks and they have a beastly .236 team ISO and .392 wOBA in that same span. Hunter Greene profiles as the perfect kind of pitcher for this Red Sox team to excel against. The kid throws some serious heat (98.8 mph average fastball velocity) but his arsenal is essentially two pitches: a four-seam fastball that he has thrown 52.9% of the time, and a slider that he's thrown 41.4% of the time -- occasionally he mixes a changeup in there but not very often (5.6% of pitches). So, offenses have seemingly been able to figure him out pretty quickly and that has led to a less-than-stellar 5.89 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, and 1.51 WHIP. Greene has shown some flyball tendencies (52.5% Flyball%) and he’s another young pitcher who has been allowing a generous amount of hard contact (40.2% HH%) and barreled balls (12.3% Barrel%) which has led to a 3.05 HR/9 Rate. Much like the aforementioned Kyle Bradish, Hunter Greene has shown some poor reverse splits as well. Against RHBs, he’s accounting for a 7.71 ERA, 4.60 xFIP, .427 opp wOBA, 1.63 WHIP, and a 4.24 HR/9 Rate. So, feel free to give the Red Sox righties a bump as well (though I wouldn’t go away from a guy like Rafael Devers just because he’s a lefty hitter). The Reds bullpen is also one of the league’s worst relief units, so no concerns there once Greene is off the mound.

Favorite BOS Bats: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts | Sneaky Bat: Franchy Cordero

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

So, I don’t believe this will be a super low-owned stack but I’d still expect most Blue Jays to check in at under 10% on this slate. Michael Kopech leads all pitchers today with a 1.29 ERA but he has been one of the ‘luckier’ pitchers in baseball evidenced by his below average 4.60 xFIP and 4.44 SIERA. He is somehow allowing a .167 BABIP and, even for the best pitchers in the game, that’s extremely unsustainable. Will today be the day where regression hits him? Could be. The Blue Jays bats are waking up lately. They’re currently riding a six-game win streak where they have averaged 6.8 runs/gm. In that six-game stretch, they’re batting a clean .300 with a .390 wOBA, .221 ISO, and 156 wRC+. So, Kopech could see at least some of his luck run out today and behind him will be an underperforming White Sox bullpen that has a 1.39 WHIP on the year (5th highest).

Favorite TOR Bats: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk | Sneaky Bat: Danny Jansen

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Trea Turner | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), PIT

OF JD Martinez | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Luis Robert | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

1B Ty France | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

2B/OF Christopher Morel | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), MIL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

C Alejandro Kirk | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF AJ Pollock | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

1B/OF Franchy Cordero | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA

2B/OF/3B Tucupita Marcano | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Mitch White (RHP), LAD

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

I want to see if Kyle Bradish’s awful reverse splits continue so I’ll be rolling with the gifted young talent of Julio Rodriguez as my HR call today. It was hit on in the stack section above, but to reiterate how bad Bradish has been in righty-on-righty scenarios this season, here are his splits versus RHBs: 10.57 ERA, 5.23 xFIP, 0.495 opp wOBA, 1.83 WHIP, and a 4.11 HR/9 Rate. All seven of the HRs that Bradish has given up have been to righty hitters and that has worked out to be an incredibly high 31.8% HR/FB Rate. Julio Rodriguez possesses normal splits and mashes lefties, but he’s a solid hitter versus RHPs as well. He has smacked out three HRs against RHPs within his last 20 games and the weather in Baltimore is going to be nice and warm (around 90 degrees) today. Due to those stadium renovations, Camden Yards isn’t the same sort of home run ballpark it once was, but Rodriguez should have no problem muscling one out over the fence.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Hyun Jin Ryu UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts | -120 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Ryu just hasn’t hit any kind of stride yet this season and he’s only posting a meager 12.4% kRate next to a 7.4% Swinging Strike Rate. Ryu is only averaging 67 pitches/gm this season and he has failed to record more than three strikeouts in four consecutive starts. The White Sox may not be posting great numbers offensively this year, and they’re dealing with some key injuries, but they do get Luis Robert back in the lineup today which is a nice boost. In total, they have five guys in their lineup who have a sub-20% kRate vs. LHPs this season and there is really only one guy in the lineup who is super strikeout prone (Jake Burger, 40.9% kRate vs. LHPs). I’d expect this righty-heavy lineup to give Ryu some trouble today by making a ton of contact and limiting strikeouts.

Mariners (-145) + Red Sox (-200) Moneyline Parlay | +153 | 1.5 Units

The Mariners come in with some nice offensive momentum (132 wRC+ over the last two weeks) and easily have the better pedigreed starting pitcher on the mound in Robbie Ray. I don’t imagine they’ll have an incredibly difficult time giving Ray some run support as they face off with struggling rookie Kyle Bradish. The Mariners are 10-2 in their last 12 games as a road favorite.

As for the Red Sox, they take their home field against the Reds who have managed to score just 2.89 runs/gm on the road this season. While the Boston bats have cooled off a bit in recent games, this is a match-up they should win with relative ease. Reds RHP Hunter Greene has been a bit of a gas can at times and this Boston lineup has been lighting up nearly every pitcher they’ve faced over the last couple of weeks or so. I’m not too worried about that 2-1 loss that Boston had against Cincy in this series opener yesterday. The Red Sox are 7-1 in their last eight games following a loss.

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!