By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Aaaaaand we’re back! I know not everyone is blessed to still have their mom around but, if you do, I hope you were able to spend time talking to or hanging out with life’s real MVP on Mother’s Day. And to any mothers who may be reading this, happy belated Mother’s Day!

Our Monday MLB DFS schedule sets up a bit differently depending on which site you play on. The DraftKings main slate will cover nine games and begin at 6:35 ET with the LAD/PIT match-up. FanDuel is sticking to a more familiar start time of 7:10 ET with their seven-game main slate, thus nixing the two games in the 6:00 ET window.

For the sake of consistency, the seven mutually shared games will be the primary focus of today’s newsletter. It’s a little annoying, especially if you’re someone who plays on both sites, but it’s something that has been happening quite a bit this season so… what can ya do?! Let’s go get that bag today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Fortunately, there are no postponement scenarios to worry about today. And while we’re nowhere near summertime temperatures just yet, most outdoor games are starting to creep into the upper-60s and 70s at the time of first pitch. We might be seeing some more taters mashed out of the park here soon!

OAK @ DET (7:10 ET, 7 O/U): Winds blowing IN from left at 10-15 mph. Pitchers get the bump here and the game total reflects that as well.

CLE @ CWS (8:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Winds blowing IN from center near 20 mph. It’s another game where pitchers get the weather bump.

MIA @ ARI (9:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): The roof at Chase Field is scheduled to be OPEN tonight. Temps in Phoenix will be in the mid-80s at first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), SF | DK: $10k, FD: $11.1k | vs. COL

I’ll try to be fairly brief with talking about Rodon today. He’s the most expensive arm on the slate and rightfully so. He’s been outstanding in every one of his starts aside from a tough outing on the road against the Dodgers last Tuesday. He’s rocking a stellar 1.55 ERA, 2.70 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, with a massive 36.9% kRate, which is easily the highest kRate on the slate. The Giants are at home and listed as the heaviest favorites on the slate (-265) while the Rockies have a slate-low 2.6 implied run total. Any time a pitcher can face the Rockies when they’re outside of Coors, it’s often a big plus. BUT do be aware that the Rockies have been excellent against LHPs, even on the road this season. It’s only a 144 PA sample size, but against LHPs on the road, Colorado is batting .326 with a .375 wOBA, .136 ISO, 144 wRC+ with only a 19.4% kRate. Rodon is most certainly the best lefty starter they’ve faced on the road up to this point in the season, but just keep in mind that this may not be the absolute smash spot for the Giants ace that it appears to be at first glance.

Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.6k | @ DET

Blackburn sticks out in a big way among starting pitchers who are priced in the mid-range today. Through five starts he has accumulated a strong 2.22 ERA and a slate-best 2.47 xFIP! He also has allowed less than one base runner per inning with his 0.95 WHIP while posting a solid 25% kRate and a low 3.3% Walk Rate. He draws his best match-up of the season tonight against Detroit, who has been one of the worst offenses in the MLB against RHPs: .204 AVG, .261 wOBA, .087 ISO, 72 wRC+, 25.3% kRate. Those 10-15 mph winds blowing in from left field will also be a nice plus for Blackburn but… if we’re being honest, even if those winds were blowing towards the outfield, the Tigers would still struggle to hit one over the fence given their league-low .087 ISO against righties. There is one downside for Blackburn here, and it’s a pretty big one. In his five starts this season, he has averaged only 70.8 pitches/gm and threw more than 73 pitches in just one game, so he’s not likely to pitch into the sixth or seventh innings. He has still been able to pitch five full innings in 4-of-5 starts and has a 3-0 record on the season. It seems as if his lack of 90+ pitch count upside is baked into his DFS salaries a bit so there is still some meat on the bone. Given the match-up and his above-average strikeout upside, he can still push for a fantasy result in the 20 DKFP/35 FDFP range.

DraftKings Preferred:

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB | DK: $4k, FD: $6.5k | @ LAA

I wouldn’t go here on FanDuel but this is another one of those scenarios where a guy is priced at the $4,000 pitcher minimum on DraftKings and Springs should be expected to cover three or four innings. Springs has made nine appearances and pitched 13.0 innings this season, mostly out of the bullpen. His numbers are going to be skewed since he’s often entering games in advantageous situations, but we can’t exactly hold that against him. Regardless, he has been excellent in those 13 innings with a 0.69 ERA (nice), 2.52 xFIP, 0.77 WHIP and he has a terrific 29.8% kRate with an even better 17.6% Swinging Strike Rate. In his last three outings, he has thrown for 32 pitches (2.0 IP), 43 pitches (2.2 IP), and 31 pitches (3.1 IP). Now that he’s being stretched out as a rotational starter, the hope here is that he can reach around 50 pitches and, even against a tougher offense like the Angels (119 wRC+ vs. LHPs), that could be enough to return value on his $4,000 DraftKings price tag. Proceed with caution, but the potential for around 15 DKFP is there for Springs. Rolling with him as your SP2 on DK would allow you to easily fit in a stud pitcher and plenty of big bats. On DK, I really like the potential of the Woodruff/Springs SP1/SP2 combo.

Also Consider:

*Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.2k | @ CIN

*Julio Urias (LHP), LAD | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.5k | @ PIT

*DraftKings Main Slate Options

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Miami Marlins vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

Castellanos shut this Marlins offense down last Tuesday when he held them scoreless on four hits across 5.2 innings. But the advantage almost always goes to the hitters when they get to face the same pitcher twice within the span of a week. Miami has also been a sneaky top 10 offense against RHPs this season -- their .315 wOBA and 109 wRC+ vs. RHPs both rank 9th in the MLB. Castellanos has not been great on the season as a whole where he has a lackluster 4.88 xFIP. It’s also worth noting that Castellanos’ strong outing against Miami last week came in the pitcher-friendly LoanDepot Park. They’ll be at the more hitter-friendly Chase Field tonight where Castellanos pitched poorly last season: 5.54 ERA, 5.37 xFIP, .300 opp AVG, 1.50 WHIP, 10.6% kRate. And, as usual, any offense facing the D-Backs receives an additional bump since they’ll get some innings against the Arizona bullpen which has an MLB-worst 4.71 xFIP this season. The roof is open at Chase Field tonight and that can always lead to hard hit fly balls having a bit more ‘pop’ as well.

Favorite MIA Bats: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jesus Aguilar, Jesus Sanchez | Sneaky Bat: Bryan De La Cruz

Seattle Mariners (RHBs) vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

No doubt, the Mariners bats have cooled off considerably in recent weeks but they may still be worth a look tonight as they open up a three-game home series against the Phillies. The Mariners have been a different team at home this season where they hold a league-leading 147 wRC+ and average 5.38 runs/gm -- compare that to their 84 wRC+ on the road (ranks 25th) where they’ve averaged 3.00 runs/gm. Ranger Suarez has not found his form yet this season either. He hasn’t been awful but in his five starts (23.1 IP), he has posted a ho-hum 4.63 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, and .365 opp wOBA, with a lofty 1.63 WHIP. He has been extremely effective in lefty-on-lefty match-ups (0.00 ERA, .128 wOBA, 0.60 WHIP), and very ineffective against RHBs (5.89 ERA, .410 wOBA, 1.91 WHIP). So, it may be preferable to stack RHBs against him. A mediocre (at best) Phillies bullpen will take over once Suarez’s day is done.

Favorite SEA Bats: Ty France, Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez | Sneaky Bat: JP Crawford (if he plays, he’s been extremely good against LHPs this season)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), SD

Our resident Padres fan @LineStarTyler will not like this and I’ll admit, it could easily backfire… but the whole point of this section is to highlight a team stack that may not make the most sense and, thus, should carry very low ownership. MacKenzie Gore was one of the top pitching prospects in the MLB and is getting his shot in the big leagues, now looking to make his fifth career start tonight. He has pitched his way to a 1.71 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, and a 25.9% kRate. However, his two best starts both came against the inept Cincinnati Reds and Gore’s 22.3% CSW% (called + swinging strike %) is the lowest mark among today’s starters. Controlling the zone seems to be a bit of an issue for him and his 10.6% Walk Rate is a bit of a concern. He’s also allowing a high 46.3% HardHit% and only creating 13.0% SoftContact%. The Cubs are a middle-of-the-pack offense against LHPs with a 99 wRC+ and they don’t strike out a ton with a 22.0% kRate. The Cubs numbers against lefties have been better on the road as well: 166 PA, 129 wRC+, 19.9% kRate. Gore could turn in another solid performance tonight but it’s also not the best spot for him either.

Favorite CHC Bats: Willson Contreras, Seiya Suzuki, Patrick Wisdom (if he plays -- Wisdom missed yesterday’s game with a bruised ankle) | Sneaky Bat: Nico Hoerner

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

2B/SS Jazz Chisholm Jr. | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

*1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.3k, FD: N/A | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), PIT

SS Tim Anderson | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

*1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $4.7k, FD: N/A | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), CIN

1B/2B Ty France | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

1B/OF Darin Ruf | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

C/OF Dalton Varsho | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Elieser Hernandez (RHP), MIA

*DraftKings Main Slate Only

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF David Peralta | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Elieser Hernandez (RHP), MIA

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

2B/SS Andres Gimenez | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

1B/OF Pavin Smith | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Elieser Hernandez (RHP), MIA

OF Manuel Margot | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA

OF Alek Thomas | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Elieser Hernandez (RHP), MIA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Alek Thomas | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Elieser Hernandez (RHP), MIA

Going with a bit of a brazen home run call today. Alek Thomas… his first career MLB home run happens tonight. Book it! Okay… well, maybe don’t go crazy by betting on an Alek Thomas home run prop or anything, but it’s not too far-fetched of a prediction. Thomas is one of the top hitting prospects in all of baseball and he got the call up on Sunday to join the big league club in Arizona. He made his MLB debut yesterday and smacked a double out of the eight hole while also scoring a run. Across 24 games in Triple-A this year, Thomas accounted for a .277 AVG, .218 ISO, 20% HR/FB Rate, and four home runs. In 34 games last year (Triple-A), Thomas had an even better .369 AVG, .289 ISO, 29.6% HR/FB Rate, and hit eight home runs. The kid’s got power and he’s in a nice spot to go yard today. Thomas bats lefty and this season Elieser Hernandez has been getting rocked by LHBs. Hernandez has faced 66 LHBs in 2022 and has already allowed a .411 wOBA and .333 ISO to that side of the plate, along with five home runs (3.21 HR/9 Rate) and a 23.6% HR/FB Rate. Pending a surprise lineup card, Thomas may still be slotted in towards the back of the order, but if he gets a couple of cracks at Hernandez, he has a realistic chance to go yard. The roof is open at Chase Field tonight and with the warm Phoenix temperatures making their way into the ballpark, that could also provide a bit more home run potential for hitters in this game.

Update: Thomas batting eighth again. Still rolling with him as my HR call.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

MacKenzie Gore UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts | +130 | 1.5 Units

I’m writing this up without knowing the Cubs lineup for this game yet and I personally won’t be placing this bet until that lineup is released. There are three Cubs I’d like to look out for today as it pertains to this under prop on Gore’s strikeouts: Michael Hermosillo (46.4% kRate vs. LHPs), Patrick Wisdom (33.3% kRate vs. LHPs), and Frank Schwindel (24.2% kRate vs. LHPs). Hermosillo is not an everyday starter, Wisdom missed yesterday’s game due to an ankle bruise, and Schwindel just got recalled from Triple-A after being optioned a day ago (I’m assuming he’ll play). If any two of those three guys AREN’T starting today, there are no other Cubs hitters who have above a 21.4% kRate vs. LHPs this season. As noted above, despite an overall 25.9% kRate in his four starts, Gore is only producing an 8.8% Swinging Strike Rate and a slate-low 22.3% CSW% (called + swinging strike %) so it seems he is due for some strikeout regression. He also only racked up only five combined strikeouts in his two starts that *didn’t* come against the Cincinnati Reds (vs. ATL, @ CLE). The Cubs as a whole do not strike out a ton against lefties so this under 5.5 K prop for Gore at plus money looks pretty nice (pending what the Cubs lineup looks like).

Daulton Varsho OVER 1.5 Total Bases (from hits) | -105 | 2.0 Units

Varsho has hit for extra bases in five of his last seven games and draws a nice match-up out of the lead-off spot against Elieser Hernandez tonight. Against LHBs (like Varsho), Hernandez is allowing a .411 wOBA, .333 ISO, and 3.21 HR/9 this season -- 8-of-17 hits Hernandez has allowed to LHBs have gone for extra bases. Varsho could get as many as three at-bats against Hernandez tonight, in which case I love his chances of hitting for over 1.5 bases.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!