Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Only five games on the docket tonight but one thing that isn’t lacking: offense. Eight of the ten teams on tonight’s main slate rank 12th or better in runs scored per game this season. The only two that do not are Washington (19th) and Pittsburgh (27th). The pitching options also aren’t awful either -- it’s just a matter of there being so many threatening lineups that the hurlers will have to attempt to mow down which causes some of these guys to look less appealing. As mentioned in the title of this newsletter, do keep in mind that this slate will begin half an hour earlier than the typical start time. The Mariners/Yankees game kicks off the slate at 6:35 pm ET but from there you’ll have over an hour until the next game begins (Pirates @ Cardinals, 7:45 ET) in case you need to adjust lineups via late-swap. With just five games, I’ll be limiting the highlighted players/teams to two pitchers and two stacks but will throw in one or two extra ‘one-off’ hitters towards the end. Let’s get to it!

Tonight’s games with Vegas totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛈️

PIT @ STL: Very little weather concerns across these five games with two being indoors. The only thing really worth noting are winds blowing out towards right field around 10 mph in St. Louis. Small potential boost for lefty power bats but that’s about it. Play ball!

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Mike Soroka (DK: $9k, FD: $9.8k) | RHP | ATL @ ARI

Soroka has been straight dealing across his four starts and has surrendered just three earned runs in 23.2 innings resulting in a 1.14 ERA. He has been handed some pretty favorable match-ups, having faced Miami, San Diego, and Cincinnati. Still, his first start of the year came against this same Arizona team and he performed admirably (5 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 6 K on 85 pitches). Overall, he has a 3.40 SIERA, 26.7% kRate, 1.01 WHIP while forcing a very strong 59% GB Rate and only a 16.4% FB Rate. The Diamondbacks are much better to attack using righties. Despite being a very strong offense (5.31 runs/game, 5th in MLB), they’re pretty average against RHPs and fall in the middle of the league in most important statistical categories: .245 AVG (16th), .319 wOBA (16th), .186 ISO (10th), .317 OBP (17th), 23.3% kRate (14th), with a 96 wRC+ (16th). They also have the 2nd highest GB Rate at 48.3% and 6th lowest FB Rate at 33.5% which mirrors Soroka’s strong suits perfectly. Soroka has given up just one home run in his 49.1 professional innings pitched. So if the Diamondbacks hope to do damage, it will likely have to be in the way of knocking in runners in scoring position. The Braves are slight -115 favorites while the Diamondbacks have a four run implied total. Atlanta should be hungry for a win after getting swept in their three game road series against the Dodgers.

Michael Wacha (DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.5k) | RHP | STL vs. PIT

If you read the intro, you noticed that the Pirates are by far the lowest scoring offense on this slate, as they have averaged only 3.56 runs/game this season. They have picked up the slack considerably as of late, however, scoring at least five runs in seven of their last eight games. Still, Wacha seems like he should be in a suitable position for a nice game if you’re looking to save a few bucks apart from the higher priced pitchers. After facing the Cubs, Dodgers, Padres, Nationals, and Brewers (twice), his seventh start of the year should be his most favorable. Against righties, Pittsburgh ranks towards the bottom of the league with a .238 AVG, .303 wOBA, .154 ISO, and 88 wRC+. Unfortunately, they don’t strike out a ton with a 20.4% kRate but that just may be something we’ll have to live with. Most of Wacha’s numbers improved in 2018 when he pitched at home in Busch Stadium and the Cardinals will be reasonably strong -140 home favorites while the Pirates have a 3.9 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

New York Yankees (RHBs) vs. Mike Leake (RHP - Seattle Mariners)

Expected Ownership: High

Last year, Mike Leake began showing signs of poor reverse splits and this season he has had extremely poor reverse splits. If that trend continues, it’s bad news against a Yankees team with some powerful righty bats. In 14.2 innings worth of pitching against RHBs this season (69 batters faced), Leake has allowed a .373 AVG, .463 wOBA, .343 ISO, 1.77 WHIP, and has just a 13% kRate. He’s already given up 11 home runs this season, six of those coming against righties for a massive 3.68 HR/9 Rate on 50% Hard Contact and 45.6% FB Rate. Gary Sanchez (.407 wOBA, .408 ISO vs. RHP) is in a great spot to launch his 12th homer of the year. Gio Urshela (.425 wOBA, .193 ISO, .439 OBP vs. RHP) gets on base a ton and DJ LeMahieu (.340 AVG, .372 wOBA, .396 OBP) has been a really consistent lead-off man lately.

Washington Nationals (RHBs) vs. Rich Hill (LHP - Los Angeles Dodgers)

Expected Ownership: Low

If you’re looking to be a bit contrarian in GPPs tonight, then taking at least a couple Nationals bats here and there would be one way to do it. With so many elite offenses on tap on this small slate, Washington will likely go overlooked when facing off against Rich Hill. Our weekend MLB writer, Greg Landry, went in a similar direction by mentioning the Padres going against the aging and injury-prone Rich Hill in last Saturday’s newsletter. Hill went on to struggle mightily, lasting just four innings while giving up seven hits (two HRs), three earned runs, and tossed just three strike outs on 85 pitches. The Nationals could be in an even better position, as they are one of the best teams in baseball against southpaw pitchers this season: .284 AVG (2nd), .368 wOBA (1st), .240 ISO (2nd), .349 OBP (4th), and 128 wRC+ (2nd). Washington’s plate appearance sample sizes against lefties this season are pretty low, so do keep that in mind. But after a super hot first couple of weeks to the season, Anthony Rendon (.523 wOBA, .533 ISO vs. LHP) has seen his DFS prices drop considerably as he looks to get back on track after a mid-April elbow injury which caused him to miss 14 games. Howie Kendrick (.368 AVG, .387 wOBA, .368 OBP vs. LHP) and Yan Gomes (.561 wOBA, .273 ISO, .625 OBP vs. LHP) are a couple other affordable righties that I would like to target.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Edwin Encarnacion (DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k) | 1B | SEA @ NYY

Encarnacion is on a major tear with four homers across his last five games. He’ll look for his 13th dinger of the season when he faces southpaw JA Happ, who has allowed eight home runs already to RHBs in 29.1 IP (2.45 HR/9) on 40% Hard Contact and a 49.4% Fly Ball Rate.

Jose Altuve (DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.7k) | 2B | HOU vs. TEX

Despite Mike Minor’s lock down performances in several starts this season, I’m not going to pass on an opportunity to get exposure to Altuve in a righty on lefty match-up when he is this cheap, especially on DraftKings. Altuve has 31 plate appearances against southpaw pitchers this year and has produced a .471 wOBA, .467 ISO, and 1.155 OPS to go with four home runs. Despite cooling off a bit lately, this is still the 2017 AL MVP who is fully capable of massive fantasy scoring upside on any given night.

Justin Turner (DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k) | 3B | LAS vs. WAS

If there was chatter of Turner being in a hitter’s slump, he’s quickly silenced the noise after delivering four home runs in his last two games. Three of his four homers this season were off of lefty pitchers like the one he’ll see tonight in Patrick Corbin. Corbin is, of course, a very talented pitcher. But he hasn’t won the BvP battle against Turner in his career. With a solid sample size (29 at-bats), Turner has gone 12 of 29 against Corbin with five XBH including a pair of homers, an .861 wOBA+ISO, and has a .500 OBP. Turner’s DFS prices are still trying to catch up to his recent production, so take the savings here and hope that he keeps his bat hot tonight.

Melky Cabrera (DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k) | OF | PIT @ STL

Cabrera is fighting Bryan Reynolds for playing time in the outfield and if there’s anything that can motivate a league vet like Melky, it’s the desire to stave off a young rookie from taking your spot in the lineup. Cabrera hasn’t exactly been struggling this season with a .350 AVG, .387 wOBA, and .387 OBP but his explosive games have been erratic and few and far in-between. Regardless, he is really cheap and, assuming he is in the lineup, he should see action as high up as the second spot in the order. The winds blowing out to the right at 10+ mph could help him as well since he’ll be batting lefty today.

Yuli Gurriel (DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k) | 1B/3B | HOU vs. TEX

I’m surprised Gurriel’s price isn’t auto-adjusted when he faces off in a match-up with lefty starting pitchers, whom he hits much, much more effectively than righties. Since the start of 2018, against LHPs Guriel has a .326 AVG, .324 wOBA, .196 ISO, and 380 OBP resulting in a 126 wRC+ rating. For perspective, in that same time frame versus RHPs he has posted a .267 AVG, .238 wOBA, .120 ISO, and .294 OBP with a 73 wRC+ rating. That's a massive difference in those splits. For your BvP narrative, against Mike Minor in his career, Gurriel is 6 for 15 with a pair of home runs, 1.002 wOBA+ISO, and 1.304 OPS. Small sample size, sure, but still worth noting. Very few viable options are cheaper than Gurriel tonight and I would think that he could get a bump up to the fifth spot in the order given the RvL advantage.

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