Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 5/7 "On Deck" Podcast feat. Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

We’ve got your typical Tuesday across the MLB where there is no off day for anyone and 26 teams will fall onto the 13-game main slate, so this intro will be a quick one. There are a few big arms available to pay up for but I definitely feel this will be a hitter-driven night and I’m expecting some high DFS scores on the horizon. I’ll personally always lean towards the tournament side of things when it comes to contest selection on nights like this but to each their own!

Tonight’s match-ups & Vegas totals/lines:

Weather Report

SF @ COL: Coors Field will require most of our attention when it comes to the weather outlook today. Forecasts show about a 40-50% chance of precipitation nearing game time and temperatures will be pretty brisk. This likely shouldn't be a washout but don't be surprised by a delayed start.

MIA @ CHC: Minor chance of some showers during this game but nothing too threatening as of now. Rain chances do increase later in the evening which may cause issues if the game happens to go into extra innings. Temps in the 40s and winds blowing in at 10-15 mph should give a bump to pitchers.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Hyun-Jin Ryu (DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.6k) | LHP | LAD vs. ATL

In the top couple tiers of pitching, if you want perhaps some added safety you could pay up a bit for Noah Syndergaard coming off the very rare “True Win” or drop down to Jon Lester in the typically favorable Marlins match-up. Ryu’s draw against Atlanta isn’t an easy one on paper. The Braves are one of the best offenses against lefties in all of baseball: .284 AVG (2nd), .358 wOBA (4th), .207 ISO (9th), 124 wRC+ (5th) and 19.4% kRate (4th lowest). However, Ryu is a complete stud, particularly when pitching at home. Since the start of 2018, in his 74.2 innings pitched at home, he has a 1.45 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, 29.1% kRate, 2.1% Walk Rate, .240 wOBA, and 0.90 WHIP. Absolute ace numbers. Typically with Dodger starting pitchers, you worry about manager Dave Roberts putting a short leash on their pitch count. But Ryu has gone seven and eight innings in his last two starts on 105 and 107 pitches, respectively. The Dodgers offense is also strong at providing run support for their starting pitchers, especially at home, where they rank second in the MLB averaging six runs/game. The Dodgers will be -145 favorites with the Braves implied for 3.4 runs.

Collin McHugh (DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.6k) | RHP | HOU vs. KC

Like most Astros pitchers, McHugh gets a nice bump when playing at home in Minute Maid Park. In his seven starts this season, McHugh has had two bad performances -- both of which came on the road. In his 17.2 innings pitched at home, he has allowed a .175 AVG, .277 wOBA, 3.06 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, and 0.96 WHIP to go with a 31% kRate. This isn’t any sort of outlier due to a small sample size -- his career stats back up his favorable home/away splits as well. The Royals are an above average offense versus RHP with a .331 wOBA, .198 ISO, 106 wRC+, and 22.1% kRate but there’s plenty of room for McHugh to post a nice fantasy outing, as several guys in this lineup strikeout quite a bit against righties. Notably, Jorge Soler (31.5% kRate), Kelvin Gutierrez (30.3%), Chris Owings (28.2%), and Adalberto Mondesi (26.4%). The Astros are another team that gives their pitchers some strong run support at home, as they are averaging 5.43 runs/game (6th in MLB). This helps lead to McHugh easily being the largest favorite on the slate today at -240 while the Royals have a 3.9 implied run total.

Jalen Beeks (DK: $7.1k, FD: $5.5k) | LHP | TB vs. ARI

The Rays are likely set to deploy their “opener + innings eater” pitching strategy today with Ryne Stanek serving as the starter and Jalen Beeks as the long reliever. Beeks has certainly had success in his last two appearances in this role where he has went 11.1 scoreless innings while racking up 13 strikeouts and allowing only three hits -- good for 25.5 and 24.6 DKFP, 41 and 38 FDFP. Both of those appearances came against the Royals. The match-up with the Diamondbacks may present a tougher challenge, as their offense has been very strong against LHP: .360 wOBA (3rd), .232 ISO (3rd), 124 wRC+ (3rd), with a 20.7% kRate (6th lowest). Still, barring a complete blow up, Beeks is priced low enough to where he could pay off his DFS salaries -- especially on FanDuel where he is the minimum salary for a pitcher as it seems they have yet to factor in Beeks as more than just a typical relief pitcher. So, while the match-up could be better, Beeks still falls on the SP2 radar or in the ‘tournament punt’ category for today.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field Notice: Per usual, when Coors Field is in play, the teams there should always carry some sort of strong stack potential.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Daniel Norris (LHP - Detroit Tigers)

Expected Ownership: Medium

The Angels aren’t typically a team that I’ll target against southpaw pitchers but when they’re going to get about five innings against Daniel Norris and then see the rest of their innings against a lackluster Tigers bullpen, I’ll take a shot. In 23.1 innings this season, Norris has allowed a .311 AVG, .367 wOBA, 1.50 WHIP to go with a 3.47 ERA, which isn’t too shabby, but his 4.54 SIERA is over a run higher than his ERA. He’s also forcing only a 36.6% Ground Ball Rate to go with a 7.8% SwStr%. For a team that isn’t elite versus LHP like the Angels, one thing they are efficient at is limiting strikeouts, as their 15.4% team kRate is the lowest in baseball. Ultimately, this should translate to a nice match-up for the Angels. Most any LAA stack must begin with Mike Trout (.375 wOBA, .303 ISO vs. LHP). Then I’d look to pair Andrelton Simmons (.373 wOBA, .263 ISO vs. LHP) and Albert Pujols (.350 wOBA, .286 ISO vs. LHP) with Trout as two very affordable stack pieces.

Boston Red Sox vs. David Hess (RHP - Baltimore Orioles)

Expected Ownership: Medium

The Red Sox were very popular in yesterday’s slate and got shut down by John Means in somewhat surprise fashion. It’s a perfect time to go right back to them and expect a much better result with lowered ownership. There’s just no reason to shy away from a match-up with David Hess who, across 30.1 innings this season, has a 5.34 ERA, 5.30 SIERA, 17.2% kRate, 27.1% GB Rate, and has already given up eight home runs this season for a 2.37 HR/9 rating. Boston should see a longer look at the Orioles bullpen today as well, which has been pretty terrible: 6.03 ERA, 4.40 SIERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 2.13 HR/9. Your usual suspects (Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi) are strong targets. For a couple of cheaper pieces of this lineup, Rafael Devers (.365 wOBA, .413 OBP vs. RHP) and Mitch Moreland (.364 wOBA, .357 ISO vs. RHP) are two lefty hitters with strong RHP splits that I would look to target.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Mike Fiers (RHP - Oakland Athletics)

Expected Ownership: Low/Medium

The Reds offense has struggled for a large portion of the season thus far but they are heading into tonight coming off of a four game series with San Francisco where they averaged 9.25 runs per game! Whether they can keep their bats hot remains to be seen, but facing off against the fantasy scoring factory that is Mike Fiers tonight is definitely a favorable draw. Fiers has allowed at least five earned runs in half of his eight starts on his way to a 6.81 ERA, 4.90 SIERA, 16.9% kRate, .362 wOBA, 1.49 WHIP, and 1.95 HR/9 Rating on 42.7% Hard Contact. The Reds are all pretty affordable and building a lefty stack with Jesse Winker (.381 wOBA, .327 ISO vs. RHP), Derek Dietrich (.443 wOBA, .469 ISO vs. RHP), and Joey Votto (.327 wOBA, .358 OBP vs. RHP) seems like a strong approach. Eugenio Suarez (.355 wOBA, .289 ISO) would also be looking to extend his home run streak to four games tonight.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Brandon Lowe (DK: $5k, FD: $3.8k) | 2B | TB vs. ARI

I still feel like Lowe is flying under the radar and he has been fantastic versus right-handed pitching this season. Against RHP he has a .319 AVG, .407 wOBA, .275 ISO, and 161 wRC+. I’d expect him to keep things rolling as he faces off against RHP Taylor Clarke who will be making his debut MLB start after posting a mediocre 4.40 ERA across 38 career triple-A starts.

Bryan Reynolds (DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.6k) | OF | PIT vs. TEX

Reynolds has been a nice switch-hitting addition to this Pirates lineup and he has recently started climbing up the lineup, starting fifth in the order in his last two starts. Albeit in limited action, Reynolds has posted a .405 AVG, .456 wOBA, .243 ISO, and .436 OBP in his 39 plate appearances and he’s already accounted for seven XBH (six doubles, one home run). He’s affordable and is seeing the ball really well. Hopefully he nabs a solid spot in the order once again.

Kendrys Morales (DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k) | 1B | OAK vs. CIN

I’ve been waiting for Morales to get going all season and he’s finally starting to churn out some hits. He’s got a three game multi-hit streak going where he has gone 7 for 13 while scoring four runs and three RBI. Morales will bat lefty tonight when he faces RHP Tyler Mahle who has shown pretty extreme splits this season. Against LHBs, Mahle has allowed a .327 AVG, .387 wOBA, .365 OBP and 51.3% Hard Contact on a 38.5% FB Rate. It’s a long shot to call for the 35-year-old Morales to hit his second home run of the season tonight, but the odds are pretty solid for him to keep up his production via routine hits, runs, and RBI. Best of all is the fact that he is dirt cheap and likely hits from the five hole.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to give the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney a listen! You can find it linked at the top of this newsletter.

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