Top MLB DFS Plays 5/7 | Can Giancarlo Stanton Be Stopped?!

May 07, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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TGIF! We’re launching into the weekend with an enormous 14-game slate heading our way this evening. On the surface, this one sets up as a fairly balanced slate with very few bonafide ‘can’t miss’ stud pitchers to roll out. Yet there aren’t many offenses you can look at and think “yeah, they’re going to wreak havoc today” either. It just looks like we’re going to get plenty of closely contested games today and only three of the 28 teams in play will have better than -150 odds to win. That is a bit of a rarity when you have nearly every MLB team in action. We also have a few games that may carry some weather risk, so let’s hop to it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

A few weather concerns, especially in Baltimore. Fortunately, the three games mentioned below all come towards the start of the slate so we should have a fairly decent idea of how things will play out closer to lock.

🚨BOS @ BAL:🚨 Seems like a late start is almost a guarantee here with a lingering line of storms moving through Baltimore right around the scheduled first pitch (7:05 ET). If there is a late start, it will be a lengthy one and they could very easily just decide to postpone. For the purposes of this newsletter, I will avoid mentioning players from this game. But if we get closer to lock and it does look like they’ll be able to get the game in, then there are plenty of viable players in this game, especially on the Boston side.

MIN @ DET: The bulk of the rain should be out of the way close to, or shortly after, first pitch (7:10 ET). I would imagine they’re able to get this one in but it’s fairly possible they’ll need to deploy a late start.

CIN @ CLE: Decent chance for rain shortly after first pitch (7:10 ET). We could see a mid-game delay which would make the SPs a bit riskier to roster in DFS. It’s also not certain just how long those showers could hang around. Can’t totally rule out a PPD if they look at the forecast before game time and have concerns about how long a delay could be.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jack Flaherty (RHP) | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.2k | vs. COL

After an erratic year in the shortened 2020 campaign and a rough 2021 season opener, Flaherty has finally begun to show us that borderline ace-level consistency and upside that he flashed towards the back half of the 2019 season. In his previous five starts (30.0 IP) going back to April 7th, Flaherty is 5-0 with a 2.10 ERA (3.56 xFIP), 27.4% kRate, 0.90 WHIP, and he’s allowing just a .181 AVG, .229 wOBA, and 28.0% HardHit%. He’s also thrown no less than 94 pitches in any start this season and has hit 100+ pitches thrice. Historically, Flaherty has also performed MUCH better when pitching at home. The Rockies have begun to show some improvements offensively, but outside of Coors Field, they’re still posting a paltry .283 wOBA vs. RHPs (ranks 24th), 78 wRC+ (23rd), and 3.38 runs/gm (26th). The Cards will be the heaviest favorites on the slate (-210) and Flaherty sets up as the go-to pitcher today, especially in cash games.

Trevor Rogers (LHP) | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.4k | vs. MIL

Rogers is clearly a better value on DK than FD. I imagine many will roll out Flaherty + Rogers as their SP1/SP2 plays in cash games on DraftKings (that should be the most popular combo in GPPs as well). If you’re choosing one or the other, I’d still probably lean Flaherty. But Rogers has been great this season. His 33.8% kRate on the year trails only Carlos Rodon (37.9% kRate) on this slate and he brings a 1.91 ERA (3.30 xFIP) to the table along with a .191 opp. AVG, .269 opp. wOBA, and 1.06 WHIP. He has picked up some velocity on his fastball and that seems to be working wonders. On April 26th, he held this Brewers team scoreless across six frames while allowing six hits and striking out seven. My only concerns here for Rogers is that he has thrown more than 85 pitches just once in six starts and, on the season, the Brewers have a .350 wOBA and 122 wRC+ vs. LHPs -- both figures rank them inside the top five in the MLB. I do think it is more likely that Rogers holds his own here, but I will probably be a bit underweight on him compared to the field.

Jameson Taillon (RHP) | DK: $8.3k, FD: $7.1k | vs. WAS

Taillon will step in as a strong mid-range option on DK today and a great value pivot on FD. I would love to see his pitch count increase a bit (hasn’t thrown more than 84 pitches in any start this season) but he does provide a strong 30.5% kRate (4th highest on the slate) and faces a Washington team that ranks as a bottom five offense versus RHPs with a 78 wRC+. Taillon will be backed up by a Yankees offense that has really started to heat up, so they’ll carry the second best odds to win on the slate (-172).

A couple of GPP SP2 punts to consider on DraftKings: Mike Foltynewicz ($6,800) & Matt Shoemaker ($6,400)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Top Stacks: The Twins and Yankees would be my top two teams to target today. I assume both will be fairly popular stack options.

If the weather cooperates and the game doesn’t get PPD, the core Red Sox players have been great as well and get to take on the ghost of Matt Harvey.

Houston Astros vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

The ‘stros are currently tied with the Twins for the highest implied run total of the day (4.9 runs), so they could be pretty popular as well. Now that they’re fully healthy, they’ve been raking on offense lately, especially against RHPs. Over the last two weeks, Houston’s 141 wRC+ against RHPs leads the league by a wide margin (ironically, Toronto is 2nd with a 122 wRC). They’re batting .286 as a team in that span (vs. Righties) along with a .361 wOBA, .221 ISO, and 34.1% HardHit%. Stripling (6.39 ERA, 4.36 xFIP) has struggled this season and probably only pitches four or five innings max. But I could see Houston plating several runs against him before the bullpen steps in.

Chicago White Sox vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

The White Sox have been a top 10 offense versus RHPs this season and will step into the batter’s box against Brad Keller who is rocking a near slate-worst 8.06 ERA and 5.51 xFIP. Keller is also throwing for a putrid 13.6% kRate and will be backed up by a Royals bullpen that ranks inside the bottom 10 in several key statistical categories. Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City has also ranked 3rd among MLB parks in terms of overall run factor. Nice offensive potential here for the White Sox and I think they'll somewhat fly under the radar.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

This is mostly a leverage play since Rogers will be a popular SP target today (especially on DK), but it makes some sense on paper as well. Milwaukee hasn’t been a great offense by any means but they’ve performed well when they’ve gone against lefties. Their 122 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 5th, .350 wOBA ranks 4th, .186 ISO ranks 7th and their 31.8% HardHit% ranks 10th. They do strike out a ton (29.2% kRate) and struggled against Rogers a couple of weeks ago. But I wouldn’t completely write this offense off tonight.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams mentioned above in the stack section:

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

How can ya fade this man right now? Across his 12-game hitting streak going back to 4/23, Stanton is hitting .481 with a .596 wOBA, .423 ISO, and 297 wRC+. In that span, he has hit six homers, four doubles, and created 54.8% HardHit%. Good luck Patrick Corbin (who Stanton has a pair of HRs against in his career in just 18 ABs).

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

I’m not going to force the “revenge narrative” here in a situation where there really shouldn’t be any bad blood. BUT, you can’t rule out the possibility of some extra motivation for Arenado as he faces his old buddies from Colorado for the first time. He gets to go up against a lefty in Gomber and up to this point, ‘Nado is hitting .350 with a .440 wOBA, .300 ISO, and 181 wRC+ against southpaws this season. He makes for a strong play regardless of any kind of narrative-driven angle.

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Urquidy

Teoscar returned to the lineup seven games ago and is hitting a solid .296 in that span with a .355 wOBA while producing an average exit velocity of 95.6 mph (top 95th percentile). Urquidy is a solid pitcher but he allows plenty of fly balls (50.5% FB%) and with Teoscar’s power, he’s got some legitimate HR upside here out of the clean-up spot. I also like Randall Grichuk (DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k) here as well. Grichuk and Hernandez would make for a pretty affordable two-man mini-stack with plenty of upside.

OF Harold Ramirez | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), CIN

Decent cheap bat to punt here if Ramirez gets a quality spot in the order. He’s hitting over .300 in his last 20 MLB games and has slapped a double in three of his four games on the season.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Mitch Garver | DK: $5.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

Skubal is just too easy to pick on right now. In 22.0 IP, he’s already allowed eight homers (3.27 HR/9). After getting a day off for rest, Mitch Garver should be back in the lineup and has smacked out four homers in his last five games. Four of his six home runs have come at the expense of LHPs and he’s creating a 60% HardHit% and .389 ISO against southpaws this season. I believe there is a great possibility we see him get another one today.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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