Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 5/6 "On Deck" Podcast feat. Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

“Happy Monday” is perhaps a bit of an oxymoron but life’s not all that bad when you have some quality baseball to look forward to this evening, right? This nine game main slate is absolutely centered around pitching and you could list off six or seven probable starters who are fully capable of throwing 6+ scoreless innings in their given match-ups. Outside of a couple offenses, this will cause us to really do our due diligence when finding what hitters to aim for -- whether it be in stacking situations or expanding out reach towards various "one off" hitters.

Here are tonight’s match-ups and Vegas totals/lines:

I’m writing a solid chunk of this on Sunday night, so there’s plenty of time for things to change -- but with four of these games taking place indoors, the only spot I could see potential weather related trouble is out in Chicago. After checking multiple sources, there’s a decent possibility of pop-up showers and storms before, during, and after the scheduled game time. Winds should also be blowing in at 10+ mph, which definitely matters at a park like Wrigley Field, and would give a slight boost to pitchers so long as they can avoid in-game rain delays. Monitor closely as we near the scheduled start time (8:05 ET)!

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jacob deGrom (DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.1k) | RHP | NYM @ SD

For the best floor on the slate, Gerrit Cole would likely fit the bill if you’re paying up for an ace arm. But deGrom, to me, seems like he should carry the highest upside. After a bit of a three game skid where The deGrominator looked more like The deGrobomination (that nickname is a stretch, I know… sorry), he went for seven scoreless innings in a no decision 0-1 loss against the Reds while striking out six and allowing five total base runners (3 H, 2 BB) -- good for 24.2 DKFP & 43 FDFP. This is still a step or two below from the type of production we expect from deGrom in good match-ups. Tonight he should see seven or eight RHBs when facing the Padres starting lineup, which sets up perfectly for him. Against RHBs, he has allowed a .286 wOBA, .159 ISO, 1.02 WHIP, 2.26 xFIP while posting a massive 39.2% kRate. The Padres have shown some pop in their bats recently, but on the season, they still rank 25th in the MLB scoring 3.89 runs/gm (3.33 runs/game at home) and are more built to tag up southpaw pitchers. Against RHPs, they rank near the bottom of the league in most major categories: .292 wOBA, .175 ISO, .285 OBP, 83 wRC+ while posting the third worst kRate at 26.9%. There’s serious 10 K+ upside for deGrom in this spot. Due to the Padres throwing out their young ace in the making, Chris Paddock, the Mets are only -120 favorites but the Padres have a slate-low 3.0 implied runs.

Cole Hamels (DK: $9k, FD: $9.2k) | LHP | CHC vs. MIA

In today’s game of “Who Is Pitching Against the Miami Marlins?”, we have lefty Cole Hamels taking the hill. As most of you are probably aware, Miami is the worst offense in the league and they are dead last averaging 2.76 runs/game (2.17 runs/game on the road). They’ve eclipsed the four run mark just once in their last 12 games and are routinely about the safest team to target a starting pitcher against. While Miami ranks at the bottom of the league in most stats against LHPs (.259 wOBA, .096 ISO, .271 OBP, 63 wRC+) they actually have the third lowest kRate of 18.1% -- so while Hamels should be a comfortable cash play, I could see reasoning behind going ‘underweight’ on him in GPPs. Still, Hamels is running strong this season with a 3.19 ERA, 3.77 SIERA, 24.3% kRate, .201 AVG, and 1.09 WHIP. His best game of the 2019 season also came against Miami about two and a half weeks ago when he went seven scoreless innings allowing three hits, no walks, and eight strikeouts on 97 pitches in a 6-0 win. Given this was in the pitcher friendly Marlins Park, but with winds blowing in around 10 mph at Wrigley Field along with cooler temps around 50 degrees, Hamels should be throwing in favorable pitching conditions. As mentioned in the intro, keep an eye on potential rains in the area for this game. There is no total out on this game at the time of this writing but Chicago is a massive -250 favorite.

Martin Perez (DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.5k) | LHP | MIN @ TOR

For a guy who is regularly priced this low, Perez has been running relatively hot, having scored at least 16 DKFP and 34 FDFP in three of his last four starts en route to a 4-0 record on the season. While his 3.41 ERA is strong, his 4.68 SIERA indicates that we should still take caution when rostering Perez, and he’s mostly a GPP only play for me. However, the last time I wrote him up, I noted that he has added velocity to his average fastball speed, which now sits at 94.7 mph -- up 2.1 mph over his career average of 92.6 mph. On top of his elevated pitch speed, he has also seemingly been able to gain more control inside the strike zone. His career Z-Contact% (Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone) of 90.2% is down drastically to 83% this season. For reference, Max Scherzer has an 82.2% Z-Contact%, so Perez is hanging comfortably above average in this metric. This has helped lead to a 10.6% Swinging Strike Rate and, while that isn’t an elite number, it is a nice bump up from his career 7.9% SwStr%. The Blue Jays offense has the third highest SwStr% in the MLB at 12.4% and overall versus lefties, they have a .286 wOBA, .113 ISO, .201 OBP, 79 wRC+, and 24.7% kRate. All of these stats and percentages to say: he’s got some valid upside tonight in comparison to his DFS prices. Hell, in his last start against arguably the best offense against southpaw pitchers (the Astros), he just went eight shutout innings allowing only four hits and two walks with seven punch outs resulting in 32 DKFP & 55 FDFP. It’d be a stretch to expect that sort of production again but he is firmly on the SP2 radar if you want to fit in more dominant batters.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Chicago Cubs vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP - Miami Marlins)

Expected Ownership: Medium

I know I mentioned that we may not have the most favorable conditions for hitters in this game but, assuming the Red Sox and Astros are likely the most obvious stacks on this slate, the Cubs still come in as perhaps my third favorite offense to target. Alcantara has only allowed three home runs in 33.1 innings this season (0.81 HR/9) but it should be noted that 24.1 of those innings came at home in the pitcher friendly Marlins Park. His 1.56 WHIP ranks as the worst among starting pitchers on this main slate, so the Cubs should have an opportunity to string together some rallies. Alcantara also has a very low kRate of just 14.7% to go with a 10% Walk Rate and 5.48 SIERA. Once the Marlins bullpen gets involved, they too have a fairly high 1.47 WHIP and 10.8% Walk Rate. The Cubs offense is hitting a major stride and have averaged exactly seven runs over their last seven games and on the season rank second in the MLB, scoring 5.9 runs/game. My top guy to target in this lineup would be Wilson Contreras (.495 wOBA, .409 ISO, .463 OBP vs. RHP) who has been crushing righties this season. After him, I’ll look towards Anthony Rizzo (.401 wOBA, .322 ISO, .385 OBP) and the resurging Kris Bryant (.376 wOBA, .207 ISO, .398 OBP) who is still probably a tad underpriced.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP - St. Louis Cardinals)

Expected Ownership: Low

The Phillies currently have just a 3.9 implied run total, which doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. Mikolas has had a pretty turbulent start to his season, posting a 3-2 record in seven starts to go with a 4.73 ERA, 4.99 SIERA, .340 wOBA, and he is striking out just 13.5% of batters while giving up eight home runs in 40 innings pitched (1.8 HR/9). Meanwhile, the Phillies are the 6th most productive offense scoring 5.2 runs/game this season (6.3 runs/game in last seven). When the Phillies have gotten runners in scoring position this year, they have posted the second best batting average in the league of .288, so they are converting often on their given opportunities. Mikolas does have a slightly above average 1.25 WHIP so he isn’t letting a ton of guys on base, necessarily. But with his 17.4% HR/FB Rate, he has been susceptible to allowing multi-run shots. The major factor going against this Philadelphia stack recommendation, and why I believe their team total sits at under four runs, is due to the effectiveness of the Cardinals bullpen, which has a 3.77 SIERA, 1.14 WHIP, .186 AVG, and 28.7% kRate -- all top tier numbers. Still, I’ll take a shot at some two and three man stacks here. Mikolas has pretty extreme splits against lefties (.377 wOBA, .258 ISO, 2.65 HR/9) so I don’t mind trying to catch Bryce Harper (.328 wOBA, .209 ISO vs. RHP) bust out of his seven game home run drought. Otherwise, Jean Segura (.393 wOBA, .386 OBP) would be a preferred target alongside reverse splits hitter Rhys Hoskins (.440 wOBA, .352 ISO, .415 OBP vs. RHP) who would be one of my top “one off” hitters on the day if I wasn’t looking to stack Philadelphia.

Milwaukee Brewers (LHBs) vs. Max Scherzer (RHP - Washington Nationals)

Expected Ownership: Low

No sort of stack against Scherzer is ever going to be super popular any time soon but he has actually allowed at least seven hits in five of his seven starts this season while also really struggling against lefties. Versus LHBs, he has allowed a .317 AVG, .404 wOBA, .254 ISO, .386 OBP, 1.70 WHIP, and 1.84 HR/9. This is across 14.2 innings and 70 lefty batters faced so, yes it’s still a small sample size but it’s not exactly minuscule. Milwaukee is a team with some quality lefties who are often strung together in the heart of their order. The most obvious, of course, is Christian Yelich (.528 wOBA, .468 ISO, 11 HRs vs. RHP) who probably carries single digit ownership tonight due to the match-up. Alongside him, you could consider Mike Moustakas (.396 wOBA, .312 ISO vs. RHP) and the dirt cheap Travis Shaw (.300 wOBA, .182 ISO vs. RHP) whose numbers are way down this year but he should be due for positive regression soon, as his .222 BABIP this season stands out as a major outlier in comparison to his .283 career BABIP.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Michael Brantley (DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.1k) | OF | HOU vs. KC

Few batters across the league have had a hotter month than Brantley. Since April 6th, he is rocking a .379 AVG, .437 wOBA, .252 ISO, and .420 OBP (nice). In this span, he has struck out in just 10.7% of his at-bats and has accounted for 14 combined extra base hits (8 doubles, 6 HRs). Now he’ll face off against RHP Jakob Junis who has bled production to lefty hitters this season: .333 AVG, .403 wOBA, .231 ISO, 1.75 WHIP, 2.04 HR/9. If you’re not stacking the Astros, Brantley is a great “one-off” piece of the offense to target, as he typically gets to bat clean-up and there’s always multi-RBI opportunities to go around in Houston. (Also, on DraftKings, feel free to pair him with birthday boy Jose Altuve who is way too cheap at $4.4k!)

Xander Bogaerts (DK: $4.8k, FD: $4k) | SS | BOS @ BAL

These Boston bats have come alive over the last couple of weeks so you don’t get them at much of a discount anymore, but Bogaerts is still reasonably affordable and has a plus match-up against southpaw John Means. It’s only a 28 plate appearance sample size for this season, but against LHPs Bogaerts has a .500 wOBA, .458 ISO, and .429 OBP. He’s been a pretty consistent force against lefty pitchers, especially in the recent stages of his career, and this is a perfectly fine situation to go after the clean-up batter for Boston in a favorable starting pitching match-up (plus, don’t forget about that awful Baltimore bullpen!).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k) | 3B | TOR vs. MIN

We’ve had time for the Vlad Jr. hype to die down a bit, along with his DFS salaries, and it is safe to say that most of the bandwagoners have hopped off the train. But, after a six game road trip, Toronto returns back to their home field which can always provide a nice mental boost for a young player starting out their professional career. After all, Guerrero Jr. did play his first three career MLB games at home between April 26th - 28th and hit safely in all three games. He’ll face LHP Martin Perez, who I know I mentioned in the pitcher’s section as a potential cheap SP2 to consider, but his SIERA is still over a run higher than his ERA, so there’s no reason to be fully sold on him just yet. In 2018 across 62.1 IP against RHBs, Perez allowed a .347 AVG, .410 wOBA, .201 ISO, 2.05 WHIP, and struck out just 12.3% of batters. If Perez happens to regress back towards those sort of numbers, look for Guerrero Jr. to end up as a prime beneficiary as he looks for his first big breakthrough game as a major leaguer.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to give the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney a listen! You can find it linked at the top of this newsletter.

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