By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Happy Friday to everyone! Let’s get ready to end this work week with a bang! Originally, we had a massive 13-game main slate heading our way this evening but unfortunately, some troublesome weather on the east coast is causing some casualties. There have already been some postponements today and there are possibly more to come. We’ll get into it in the weather section below but just make sure you’re keeping an eye on some of these forecasts leading up to lock! Best of luck to everyone today and here’s to a great weekend as well.

Update: Four games in total have been PPD. The remaining games *should* be safe.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

This has to be the ugliest weather slate up to this point in the season.

NYM @ PHI: Postponed!

TEX @ NYY: Postponed!

KC @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): Lighter rain early that progressively gets heavier later into the evening. Good chance this game gets PPD soon as well, and if they do start this game, I wouldn’t trust they’ll finish. Out of caution, no players from this game will be mentioned in this newsletter.

Update: KC/BAL has been postponed!

CWS @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): The same storm system that caused PPDs in PHI and NY will bring some risk to this game but *as of now* it is expected to remain south of Boston. Currently, it seems like this game will play so CWS/BOS players will stay in DFS consideration for now. Do check this forecast closer to lock.

TOR @ CLE (7:10 ET, 6.5 O/U): Lighter rain is scheduled to fall throughout this game, temps in the 50s, and 15+ mph wins will be blowing IN from right. It’s an ugly day for baseball in Cleveland but they may still decide to gut it out and get this game played. If they do play, it’s a great environment for pitchers. The PPD risk is perhaps not as high here as it is in Baltimore, but out of caution, no players from this game will be mentioned in this newsletter either.

Update: TOR/CLE has been postponed!

MIL @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds blowing right to left around 15 mph though they could shift to blowing OUT at times. Some very light rain could make its way over the ballpark for a brief moment but not likely. 71 degrees at first pitch. Might be a nice hitting environment, particularly if those winds ever shift towards the outfield.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.3k | vs. TB

Gilbert has been as steady as it gets to start the season. In all five of his starts (28.0 IP), he has scored at least 20 DKFP/33 FDFP. His best outing of the season came against this Rays team back on 4/26 when he covered 5.2 innings on 104 pitches, allowing two hits, three walks, and zero runs, and he notched seven strikeouts -- good for 27.8 DKFP/44 FDFP. So we know there is some nice upside for him in this match-up and he’s been extremely stingy in the earned runs department with his 0.64 ERA. There is a bit of luck mixed in with that low ERA, however, his 3.47 xFIP and 3.47 SIERA are still very solid. The Rays can be dangerous against RHPs (112 wRC+, ranks 7th), however, they also provide plenty of strikeout potential with their 24.9% kRate (7th highest). Gilbert has posted an above average 24.4% kRate this season, though I would like to see him start to produce a better swinging strike rate (currently he has a 9.4% SwStr%). Regardless, he’s pitching with confidence and consistency in his second MLB season and he’ll get to take the mound at home in the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park tonight. The Mariners are moderate -133 favorites while the Rays possess a low 3.2 implied run total.

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.9k | vs. COL

Those noticeably divergent home/road splits are starting to rear their ugly head for the Rockies. Here are their home/road splits against RHPs this season:

Home: .276 AVG, .354 wOBA, .182 ISO, 104 wRC+, 20.6% kRate

Away: .155 AVG, .261 wOBA, .172 ISO, 68 wRC+, 24.0% kRate

They’re still producing good power both home and away with those higher-end ISOs, but everywhere else shows a massive difference. We can pretty much view the Rockies on the road as a slightly better version of the Cincinnati Reds… I know that’s harsh, but the numbers don’t lie, people! Merrill Kelly takes the mound for the D-Backs today and he’s been sharp this season outside a lackluster outing against the Dodgers -- can’t hate on him too hard for that given the match-up and he still only gave up three runs across six innings, so it was far from a disastrous start. He’s posted a 1.27 ERA this season with a 3.34 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, and 22.8% kRate. His HardHit% and HardContact% are both down noticeably from previous seasons, and getting hit hard was always one of Kelly’s major flaws so that could be a key to his success to start his 2022 campaign. The Rockies do still have some guys who can get big hits no matter what park they’re in but I’ll lean towards trusting their poor overall away splits and look for Kelly to continue to build upon his success this season.

DraftKings Preferred:

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. MIL

To state the obvious, this is a fairly risky play but one that may pay off if you’re looking to jam in all the big bats tonight. After demoting former starters Bryce Elder and Kyle Muller, the Braves look to go with a bullpen game this evening. Jesse Chavez is penciled in as the starter and will likely cover the first one or two frames. Strider is the expected long reliever and could end up handling three or four innings of work. If that’s the case, he could pay off this $4,000 price tag on DraftKings with ease. Strider is basically a two-pitch guy (fastball & slider) but he brings some serious heat with that fastball and will regularly hit 100 mph on the gun. In his 12.2 IP this season, he has come away with a 32% kRate, 15.9% SwStr%, and 30.3% CSW% (called + swinging strike %). The Brewers bats have been pretty hot as of late and their 112 wRC+ vs. RHPs ranks them 8th in the MLB. However, they’re also a good team to target for strikeouts given their 24.8% kRate (9th highest). There’s no need to go to Strider on FanDuel, even though he is only $5,500 there. But utilizing him as your SP2 for $4k on DraftKings (where there are dozens of hitters more expensive than him) could return some nice value especially if he picks up the win bonus -- somewhere in the range of 15-20 DKFP is a realistic possibility given his strikeout potential.

Also Consider:

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS | DK: $9k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CWS

Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9k | @ SD

Josh Winder (RHP), MIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.5k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Boston Red Sox vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), CWS

Vinny V always has some potential to get blown up whenever he takes the mound and, while it hasn’t quite happened yet this season, he hasn’t been particularly good outside of his most recent start against the Angels. On the season he’s posting a 4.58 ERA, 3.97 xFIP, and .340 wOBA. Traditionally he hasn’t been a poor reverse splits guy in his career, but he has been particularly awful against RHBs this season: 7.71 ERA, 5.37 xFIP, .520 wOBA, 2.29 WHIP. I believe you have to keep a lefty like Rafael Devers well within consideration for any Boston stack, but just be aware that right-handed hitters have been the ones doing to most damage against Velasquez. Behind him will be a White Sox bullpen that is severely under-performing this season and is pitching like a borderline bottom 10 relief unit (3.48 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 3.55 SIERA, 1.32 WHIP). Stacking the Red Sox has not been a very fruitful endeavor for much of the season but let’s look for them to get some bats going tonight.

Favorite BOS Bats: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, JD Martinez | Sneaky Bat: Jarren Duran (hitting lead-off today)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

The Angels lead the MLB with a .192 ISO against RHPs this season which is bad news for Joan Adon, who has already given up a ton of power and barreled hits this season. Adon has allowed a high 17.6% Barrel% and 40.5% HardHit% on the season which has led to a lofty .388 wOBA and .444 xwOBA. He has accumulated a slate-worst 7.33 ERA to go with a 4.97 xFIP and 1.67 WHIP. If things get messy or Adon hits his pitch limit, a bottom 10 ranked Nationals bullpen will come in to take things over the rest of the way. The Angels offense has been a bit feast or famine lately but they are coming into this game off of 10-run and 8-run performances in their last two games (@ BOS).

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Jared Walsh, Shohei Ohtani | Sneaky Bat: Max Stassi

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Washington Nationals vs. TBD (LAA)

So Los Angeles is taking their sweet time and there is no official starter named for the Angels at the time of this writing. It could be RHP Michael Lorenzen, it could be RHP Jaime Barria, or perhaps they just surprise us with someone who just walked in off the street! Regardless of who the Angels eventually announce as their starter, the Nationals bats may be worth a look tonight. A three-game series in Coors Field, which Washington just played, can certainly do wonders for a struggling offense’s confidence but before that series, the Nationals also put up 28 combined runs in their three-game set against the Giants in San Francisco. So it has been a successful road trip for Washington’s offense, to say the least. Over the last week, they’re hitting .364 with a .411 wOBA, .158 ISO, and 167 wRC+. The mythical “Coors hangover” could hit the Washington bats as well but, for now, the bats have been hot so riding that wave may continue to pay off.

Favorite WAS Bats: Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Yadiel Hernandez | Sneaky Bat: Keibert Ruiz

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Zach Logue (LHP), OAK

OF Yordan Alavarez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), CWS

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. TBD, LAA

2B Ozzie Albies | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Jesse Chavez (RHP) & ATL Bullpen

1B Jared Walsh | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Yadiel Hernandez | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. TBD, LAA

1B/OF Pavin Smith | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

OF Austin Slater | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), STL

OF Manuel Margot | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Jarren Duran | DK: $2.1k, FD: N/A | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), CWS

2B/OF Chad Pinder | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Josh Winder (RHP), MIN

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Yordan Alavarez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

There is not much to go off of with Briekse as he makes only his third career MLB start tonight. But, in 10.0 IP in the big leagues, he has already given up three home runs along with a 60% Fly Ball Rate and 12.5% Barrel Rate. Yordan Alvarez should be licking his chops as he steps into the batter’s box against this greenhorn righty. In 44 at-bats vs. RHPs this season, Alvarez has already launched seven home runs to go with a monstrous .474 wOBA, .500 ISO, and 53.8% HR/FB Rate. Yes… 53.8% of Yordan’s fly balls hit against RHPs have left the park. That doesn’t bode well for Brieske and his current 60% FB%.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Yordan Alvarez OVER 0.5 RBI | +115 | 2.0 Units

Yordan is just in such a good spot tonight against Brieske and all the reasons why I like him to go yard tonight are covered in that section above. But let’s also look for him to bat at least one run in tonight. Alvarez has recorded an RBI in six of his last eight games and with strong hitters like Altuve, Brantley, and Bregman ahead of him in the lineup, you feel good about those guys getting on base against an inexperienced RHP like Beau Brieske. Or, Yordan could just cash this prop all by himself by hitting that home run I’m calling for tonight. Either way, getting this at plus-money when it has hit so often in recent games represents some nice value.

Xander Bogaerts to Record a Hit | -230 | 3.0 Units

Clearly, these are not amazing odds and I thought about rolling with “Bogaerts OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+105)” to juice things up, but I’ll play it a bit safer here and just go with XB to secure a hit today. Bogaerts is hitting a whopping .393 in his last 20 games against RHPs and Vince Velasquez has shown some poor reverse splits on the season, allowing a .394 AVG and .504 wOBA to RHBs. Bogaerts should smack at least one ball safely into the field of play today.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!