Top MLB DFS Plays 5/5 | Options Galore So Pick Your Poison!

May 05, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Another fairly loaded 10-game main slate makes its way to us tonight. This slate brings a considerable amount of flexibility along with it. You’ve got a few aces taking the mound, some at least decent value pitching options, several offenses that are in obvious strong spots, and some hitter stack options which have great potential to succeed at low ownership. Also, while it doesn’t seem like the most risk-free weather slate, the skies do look a bit clearer than they have the past couple of days, so let’s hope for no PPD situations. Now, let’s lace up and make a run at this thing!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

HOU @ NYY: Light rain in the area that should hopefully be out of the way by first pitch. Can’t rule out a late start if it lingers a bit longer than anticipated, but PPD risk seems pretty minimal.

MIL @ PHI: Winds mostly blowing IN from left at 10-15 mph. Slight bump to pitchers.

TEX @ MIN: Similar situation as in New York. Light rain should be moving out of the area around the time of the scheduled first pitch (7:40 ET). Could see a late start and play, but it’s possible they can just get things going on time as well.

🚨DET @ BOS:🚨 Primary game to track today weather-wise. Rain is falling in Boston throughout the day but the worst of it should be clearing about an hour or so after the scheduled first pitch (7:10 ET). Storms are pretty scattered so they could manage to avoid most of the rain, or they could just opt to play through it. We will have a better idea of how this one will play out closer to lock.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yu Darvish (RHP) | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.8k | vs. PIT

You really can’t go wrong rolling with either Darvish or Shane Bieber (DK: $10.4k, FD: $12.2k). And I would view Walker Buehler (DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k) as the contrarian high-end GPP pivot off the top two guys. Darvish draws what is clearly the best match-up of the three as Pittsburgh ranks out as a bottom 10 offense versus RHPs. On the season their 86 wRC+ against righties ranks 23rd and they’ve been even more awful over the last two weeks with a 68 wRC+ (ranks 28th) and a .268 wOBA (26th). Darvish provides plenty of K upside and is coming off of a 12 strikeout performance which has boosted him up to a 32.9% kRate on the season. He also has a slate-best 0.89 WHIP and held this same Pirates team to one run on three hits across seven full innings back on April 12th. He should be a high floor option to spend up on and, given their discounted salaries (by ace standards) I imagine rolling with both Darvish and Bieber will be a popular approach on DK today, especially in cash.

Martin Perez (LHP) | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.7k | vs. DET

If you can find two or three quality cheap bats or a solid mid-range stack that you like, then it’s of course going to be much safer paying up for guys like Darvish/Bieber/Buehler/Peralta. But for a value arm, I don’t hate the idea of continuing to attack a struggling Detroit team once again. He didn’t light it up, but Nick Pivetta worked out as a solid mid-range pitcher for us yesterday, accruing 20.45 DKFP and 36 FDFP. Perez could easily hit a similar fantasy point total today and also comes in at a cheaper price than Pivetta was. Perez may only be providing a 20.8% kRate on the season and has a lackluster 1.48 WHIP and 4.88 xFIP. But Detroit has a massive (and league-high) 37.0% kRate against lefties and ranks dead last with a .168 AVG, .215 wOBA, and 35 wRC+. Just terrible. That 35 wRC+ essentially tells us that they’ve been 65% worse than the *average* MLB offense against LHPs. It’s not without some risk, but Perez is in about as good of a spot as a pitcher could hope for and Boston has the second best odds to win on the slate (-175). Remember to keep an eye out on the weather for this game though.

Brady Singer (RHP) | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CLE

More of a contrarian DraftKings SP2 play here. Singer’s last appearance was a two inning bullpen session since he was previously dealing with a minor heel injury. I suppose that kerfuffled up the DK pricing algorithm and knocked Singer all the way down to $5,500. Singer should take on his usual starter’s workload today and throw around 90 pitches. He’s posted a few pretty strong outings already this season and has thrown for a 26.3% kRate, 1.20 WHIP, 3.09 ERA, 3.59 xFIP, and allowed a .219 batting average. Elite numbers? No. But, for a $5,500 pitcher? Excellent. Cleveland isn’t an offense to be taken too lightly but all of their primary metrics against RHPs are either average or below average and they do offer up a fairly high 25.7% kRate to opposing righties. Singer is simply a highly viable SP2 punt (probably best used for GPPs) that would easily allow you to snag an ace and still have room for quality high-end bats.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Top Stacks: I’d view the Red Sox, Yankees, and Twins as the best/safest offenses to deploy today. The core pieces to all three teams will eat up plenty of salary though.

Washington Nationals vs. Max Fried (LHP), ATL

It does pain to me suggest any team facing my Braves, but if I push bias aside, I don’t see how anyone could be afraid of stacking against Max Fried up to this point. He’s making his first start in about three weeks following a stint on the IL due to a hamstring injury and will likely be set to throw around 75-80 pitches. In his 11.0 IP this season, he has been dismantled and has accrued an 11.45 ERA, 2.55 WHIP, 45.2% HardHit%, and is allowing a .501 wOBA. He does have a 4.21 xFIP, so we can not put 100% of the blame for that awful ERA completely on Fried and he is definitely a better pitcher than what he has shown this year. But if he still comes out struggling, Atlanta will be forced to deploy their bullpen which has been a bottom 10 unit in 2021. The Nationals have also been very efficient against lefties, posting a 132 wRC+ (ranks 3rd) and .373 team wOBA (ranks 2nd).

Oakland Athletics vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR

Robbie Ray, you’re not fooling me. He’s rocking a 2.78 ERA on the season but that is held up by a not-so-spectacular 4.35 xFIP and 4.50 SIERA. He has been getting quite fortunate with just a .237 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) against him -- stack that up against a career .311 BABIP and we have to assume he is in for some serious regression at some point. Maybe that happens today? He is also permitting a 47.6% HardHit% and the 91.7 mph average exit velocity against him is the highest among all starting pitchers today. The A’s have been great against LHPs this season as well while posting a .335 wOBA (ranks 8th), .208 ISO (3rd), and 123 wRC+ (5th).

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Detroit Tigers vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

It’s a pretty low chance that this works out (and the game may not even play due to weather) but, hey, they did put up seven runs yesterday at Fenway which has been the 7th best park for producing runs this season. Also, it isn’t as if Martin Perez has been a lock down pitcher. Vegas is at least giving Detroit a 4.1 implied run total which is high, by the Tigers standards. The current Detroit roster is also hitting .333 with a .400 wOBA in 75 plate appearances against Perez.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams mentioned above in the stack section:

SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

I led yesterday’s one-off section with Xander and after going 2-for-5 with a HR, I don’t see any reason to not mention him again! He’s a pricey bat, but not quite in the same tier as someone like Acuna Jr. or Mike Trout. Yet, as of late, he’s outperforming both of those guys. I really hope the weather allows this game to play because Boston is in a juicy spot once again as they face Mize and a terrible Detroit bullpen.

2B Kolten Wong | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), PHI

Wong has been a super solid lead-off man and one of the few bright spots of the Brew Crew offense. Wong is hitting over .300 on the year and possesses a solid .405 wOBA and .224 ISO against RHPs. Chase Anderson has supplied lefty bats with a .346 wOBA and a .224 ISO. Anderson is striking out LHBs just 17.3% of the time and has given up a 2.08 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate in 2021.

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Lewis Thorpe (LHP), MIN

Gallo has recorded some sort of stat in the fantasy score column in every game this season but one. So, you have to feel good about the fact that he almost certainly won’t leave you high and dry with a goose egg. Gallo has also shown positive reverse splits throughout his career so the lefty on lefty match-up isn’t a negative against him. Over his last 20 games versus LHPs (43 PAs) he is hitting .333 with a .433 wOBA and .222 ISO. In his 49.0 IP in the MLB, Thorpe has also shown some negative reverse splits and lefties are hitting .361 against him with a .415 wOBA.

OF Andrew Benintendi | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE

Super contrarian one-off hitter here as he runs into the sawmill that is the right arm of Shane Bieber. But Benintendi is showing some power lately with five barreled balls in the last 14 days (95th percentile), he’s hitting .319 vs. RHPs in the last 20 games, he’s 6-for-11 (.545) with a homer against Bieber in his career, and he very well could be hitting second in the order behind White Merrifield. Hardly anyone is going to touch hitters facing Bieber, but Benintendi has several things going for him in this match-up today and will be something like 2-4% owned.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

I had MLB Network on last night and they put up a stat showing that Stanton has 17 batted balls this season with an exit velocity of 115+ mph. The next closest TEAM has five 115+ mph batted balls (Angels). That’s wild in itself. He gets to step into the box against Luis Garcia who doesn’t get hit hard an absurd amount (34.6% HardHit%), but he does allow a high 51.9% Fly Ball Rate. With as much power that Stanton is producing, he can easily send one of those fly balls over the fence without much effort (for him).

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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