By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

A six-game main slate will meander its way onto the scene on this Cinco de Mayo Thursday! And do keep in mind that DFS contests for this slate will lock a touch earlier than usual with the first pitch for the lead-off game between the Mets and Phillies set for 6:45 ET/3:45 PT.

The dichotomy between pitching and offense on this slate is intriguing. Aside from the rapidly emerging Shane McClanahan, there are not many starting pitchers who you could look at and comfortably say “yeah, this dude should cruise today.” However, top to bottom, the arm talent taking the mound is quite solid and devoid of any certified gas cans, so no particular offenses seem to be in smash spots either. Unless one of the bullpens completely crumbles today, it would just seem unlikely that we’ll see any particular offense explode such as the Brewers on last night’s slate. Currently, only three of the twelve teams on the slate have an implied team total over four runs -- the highest being 4.6 implied runs belonging to the Minnesota Twins. Perhaps we’re looking at a slate where running out full four or five-man stacks may be a less optimal approach and instead, we may want to look into piecing together some smaller two/three-man stacks to go along with several one-off platoon hitters. We’ll see how things ultimately shake out but let’s have some fun and dig into these games!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

No weather-related issues to make note of on this slate!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.1k | @ SEA

McClanahan is setting up to be the chalk pitcher of the day but this emerging ace easily has the best 2022 resume on the slate. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his five starts and, most importantly (for DFS purposes), he has recorded at least seven strikeouts in all five starts as well. He’s rocking a basement-level 1.59 xFIP and 1.77 SIERA. He’s showing excellent command of all four of his pitches while posting an elite 18.3% Swinging Strike Rate, 39.3% kRate, and forcing a 56.1% Ground Ball Rate.

After a hot start, the Mariners offense has been skidding as of late and, over the past week, they have accounted for just a .260 wOBA and 75 wRC+ which places them in the bottom five offense during that time frame. They have been good against lefties on the season (119 wRC+, ranks 8th) and they’re not striking out incredibly often (21.5% kRate, 9th lowest) but McClanahan’s pitches are simply fooling everyone right now so I don’t believe the match-up should be the reason anyone is gets swayed off of rostering him in lineups tonight. The only downside with McClanahan is his lack of owning a truly fully extended leash, which is a common theme among Rays starting pitchers. He did hit a 90 pitch count in his last outing, which was enough of a workload to record 11 Ks, but just know that it is very unlikely he’ll handle 100+ pitches like many other traditional starters are capable of reaching. Of course, that is less of an issue given his filthy strikeout stuff. The Rays are not incredibly heavy favorites with -128 moneyline odds, but the Mariners do own the lowest implied team total on the slate of only 2.9 runs.

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.1k | @ SD

Strikeouts are the name of the game when it comes to selecting pitchers in MLB DFS, so Luzardo has to draw some consideration today. He has an excellent 34.1% kRate across four starts (20.1 IP) and he opened the season striking out a dozen Angels hitters on just 76 pitches. The 11.0% Walk Rate is a concern, but he is also commanding the plate very well at times and leads this slate with a 21.3% Called Strike %. The match-up with the Padres maybe isn’t the best as they do sneak inside the top 10 offenses against LHPs with a 119 wRC+ (ranks 9th). But there are only a few hitters Luzardo will need to worry about. Manny Machado (274 wRC+ vs. LHPs) is the main guy -- he simply demolishes lefties, that’s nothing new. Outside of him, I’d say Eric Hosmer (showing great reverse splits this season), Jurickson Profar, and Jake Cronenworth are the other three Padres hitters that Luzardo will need to be cautious with. That will leave Luzardo with plus match-ups against over half of the lineup. Luzardo will also be taking the mound at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park which has the second-lowest adjusted run rating this season. The Padres have averaged 4.00 runs/gm in their home ballpark this season as opposed to 5.27 runs/gm on the road. This game has only a 7 O/U (tied for lowest on the slate) and is essentially a pick ‘em with both teams carrying -110 odds to win. It’s maybe not the best spot for Luzardo but far from the worst as well.

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $9.9k | vs. NYM

I’ll lead off with Nola expressing some concern that he is pitching against the Mets for the second time in the last six days and for the third time in the last three weeks. The good news here is that he is pitching at home where he has played noticeably better throughout his career with the Phillies:

Home Splits: 3.14 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, .216 opp AVG, 30.2% kRate

Away Splits: 4.27 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, .246 opp AVG, 24.3% kRate

Nola has also pitched against the Mets 11 times (62.2 IP) in his career and has been pretty dominant, posting numbers that are on par with his career home splits: 2.87 ERA, 3.19 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, .214 opp AVG, 30.5% kRate. The Mets have been deadly against RHPs (126 wRC+, ranks 2nd) and they’ve been difficult to strike out with only an 18.5% kRate (2nd lowest). However, Nola did just strikeout nine Mets hitters in his most recent start and has a rock-solid 27.6% kRate in his last 185 PA against them. I’d expect Nola to surrender some hits and a couple of runs to New York today but I do also like his chances of getting another 7-to-9 strikeouts while also having a strong chance at earning the win. The Phillies are the heaviest favorites on the slate with -165 odds and the Mets hold a fairly low 3.6 implied run total.

Also Consider:

*Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $6.5k, FD: $9.4k | @ HOU

Chris Archer (RHP), MIN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.3k | @ BAL

*DraftKings Preferred

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Minnesota Twins vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

As I sort of went over in the intro, I’m getting the sense that running full four/five-man stacks may not be ideal today. Instead, rolling out some smaller two/three-man stacks with some one-offs feels like the recipe to success. But if there is an offense in a good enough spot to completely blow open this slate, perhaps it’s the Twins.

You could argue that only the Yankees have been hotter than the Twins recently and some of the numbers pretty much reflect that. Over the last two weeks, the Yankees lead the MLB with a .361 wOBA and 143 wRC+… but the Twins are not too far behind, ranking second with a .343 wOBA and 129 wRC+. Spenser Watkins is also the closest thing we’ll get to a ‘gas can’ on this slate. He has managed to pitch his way to a 2.55 ERA across his four starts (17.1 IP), but he’s been very fortunate to do so thanks to a .211 BABIP, among other things. Watkins’ 5.04 xFIP and 5.25 SIERA are the worst metrics on this slate and indicate some noticeable regression is due. Speaking of regression, the Baltimore bullpen began the season pitching surprisingly well but some leaks in the ship are beginning to show. Over the last two weeks, that bullpen has posted a 5.07 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP, and giving up 1.47 HR/9 -- all bottom 10 figures.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Trevor Larnach | Sneaky Bat: Jose Miranda

Miami Marlins vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

The Marlins have quietly been a very solid offense this season, particularly when facing off against righty pitching. On the year, they’ve been a top five offense against RHPs, hitting .247 (ranks 5th) with a .329 wOBA (4th), and 118 wRC+ (4th). They’ll look to get around five innings against RHP Nick Martinez tonight who has been back pitching in the MLB for the first time since 2017. Martinez has been decent at times but there is certainly nothing special about his 4.12 ERA, 4.63 xFIP, and .412 opp wOBA. He’s allowing quite a few base runners as well with a slate-worst 13.8% Walk Rate and 1.68 WHIP. Following Martinez will be a Padres bullpen that has a 4.27 ERA this season (5th highest) but, realistically, they’re more of a middle-of-the-pack bunch of relievers based on the underlying numbers. It’s not a smash spot for the Marlins bats but a few of these guys should find some success this evening.

Favorite MIA Bats: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jesus Aguilar, Jon Berti | Sneaky Bat: Brian Anderson

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers (RHBs) vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

It’s 2022, are the Tigers still a bad offense? Sorry Detroit, but yes… yes they still are. So we’re not looking to go crazy with this stack, perhaps hit on two or three guys at most. But the reason Detroit may be worth a look, apart from being able to get them at very low ownership, would be to take advantage of Jose Urquidy’s poor reverse splits. Over his career, the Astros righty has held left-handed hitters to a .183 AVG and .233 wOBA. However, RHBs have posted a .270 AVG and .337 wOBA against him. That is a significant difference over a wide sample size that spans over 200 IP for Urquidy. Those reverse splits have been even more extreme for him so far this season. In his four starts in 2022 (19.2 IP), Urquidy is allowing a .346 AVG, .411 wOBA, and 8.25 ERA to RHBs (.241 AVG, .284 wOBA, 2.35 ERA to LHBs). Of course, the Tigers are firmly inside the bottom 10 offenses and that carries over to their splits against RHPs (.216 AVG, .276 wOBA, 82 wRC+). But perhaps there are still a few right-handed hitters we can use here to take advantage of those poor Urquidy reverse splits.

Favorite (RHB) DET Bats: Javy Baez, Spencer Torkelson, Miguel Cabrera | Sneaky Bat: Tucker Barnhart

Update: Of course, the Tigers just see an Astros right-handed pitcher on the mound and choose to put a struggling lefty bat (Akil Baddoo) at the top of the order while bumping Miggy and Torkelson down, tsk tsk.

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/SS Jazz Chisholm Jr. | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

OF/1B Kyle Schwarber | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

SS/2B Javy Baez | DK: $5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

2B/OF Tommy Edman | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Mauricio Llovera (RHP), SF

OF Joc Pederson | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

1B/3B Yandy Diaz | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chris Archer (RHP), MIN

1B Yuli Gurriel | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Max Kepler | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

OF Austin Hays | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chris Archer (RHP), MIN

3B/OF Brian Anderson | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

1B Spenser Torkelson | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

OF Austin Slater | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Odubel Herrera | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

OF Manuel Margot | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA

OF Trevor Larnach | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

1B/3B Jose Miranda | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

There’s no official lineup released for the Twins at the time of this writing but, after getting the day off yesterday, Buxton should certainly be back out there on the field today. Watkins is probably the easiest starting pitcher to target today and why not attack him with one of the best five-tool players in the MLB with Buxton? Against RHBs, Watkins has allowed a 2.72 HR/9 Rate and 18.0% HR/FB Rate in his career. Buxton has missed some games this season and given his injury history, the Twins are smart to protect their superstar outfielder by giving him the occasional day off. But even in only 16 games played this season, Buxton has blasted seven home runs. Against RHPs, he’s accounting for a .289 AVG, .421 wOBA, and .343 ISO with three home runs. Unlike previous seasons, Camden Yards has been a difficult park to knock home runs out of this year, largely due to some off-season renovations, but it’s certainly not impossible. Three guys went yard in the Twins/O’s game yesterday (Mullins, Urias, Correa) and Buxton has more slugging power than any of those guys. Let’s see Buxton knock out his eighth dinger of the year!

Update: Buxton is back in the lineup today hitting at his usual lead-off position!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Jazz Chisholm Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases (from hits) | +150 | 2.0 Units

After batting sixth yesterday with lefty Madison Bumgarner on the mound, we should expect Jazz back at the lead-off today against RHP Nick Martinez. Jazz is just a do-it-all guy. He hits, hits with power, earns walks, steals bases, and just makes some all-around exciting plays. Chisholm Jr. is hitting .356 against RHPs this season and 11 of his 21 hits against righties have gone for extra bases (four 2B, four HR, and three 3B!) and he’s officially hit for multiple bases in five consecutive games. I’ll look for Jazz to either knock an extra base hit or record multiple hits for a sixth consecutive game tonight.

Byron Buxton & Kyle Schwarber to BOTH Hit a Home Run | +1200 | 0.5 Units

I’ve got a long shot bet to throw a bit of scratch at here today! Buxton and Schwarber are both in great spots to go yard today, and that is reflected in their home run prop odds. Both Buxton and Schwarber’s HR odds are about +250 to +300, depending on the sportsbook, so instead of betting them separately, let’s see if we can get a much bigger hit by parlaying them together.

Buxton is my home run call today and, as mentioned in that section above, he already has blasted seven HRs in just 16 games played this season. He’s clearly feeling good after dealing with injuries last year and he draws a nice match-up with RHP Spenser Watkins who owns a 2.72 HR/9 Rate vs. RHBs across his career.

Schwarbomb matches up with RHP Taijuan Walker today. In Schwarber’s last 20 games vs. RHPs (52 PA), he has a huge .356 ISO and has hit five home runs. What’s even more intriguing is the BvP Schwarber has going for him. In only 17 plate appearances against Walker, Schwarber has gone yard off of him an incredible FIVE times, earning him an absurd .938 BvP ISO! To say Schwarber has Walker’s number may be an understatement. He’s @LineStarTyler’s home run call today as well so let’s see if both of our guys can manage to cash this +1200 ticket today!

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!