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Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 5/4 & 5/5: Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

The weekend is here and we have a great tournament slate tonight. There are a ton of directions you could go in. We have one elite pitcher on the hill but he’s in a difficult match up. After him, we have several potential options but you could really make an argument for and against almost any one of them. There are a lot of spots for offense, which makes it increasingly interesting with games in both Texas and Coors tonight that have double-digit totals. Those spots will likely get the most attention but there a lot of teams that may go overlooked which have the pieces to match those games from an offensive standpoint. This will be a fun, high-scoring slate tonight. Here’s a look at all the games and Vegas lines:

As far as the weather goes, we have some games with risk, so make sure you leave yourself enough time to check the forecast prior to lock. Weather can change quickly. In Pittsburgh, there’s a threat of rain throughout the game but it doesn’t look heavy. Baltimore is similar, with the rain expecting to get heavier closer to the end of the game. Philadelphia is in that same situation with a light threat of rain throughout the game but nothing suggesting a PPD risk at this time. Cincinnati looks to be the biggest threat with heavy rain at first pitch but then tapering off, so that may be a delayed start with a possible PPD. Everything else looks in the clear. No winds or temperatures to be overly concerned with.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Patrick Corbin (DK: $10.4K, FD: $9.1K) | LHP | WAS @ PHI

Corbin is the best pitcher on this slate, despite a difficult match up, so on nights like this I’m taking the high ceiling and moving on. I think the field is going to be drawn to Rich Hill (more on this in a moment) which gives Corbin additional appeal with lower ownership. It’s obviously not an ideal match up against the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park, so the risk here is higher than usual. But again, this is all about chasing the upside. Corbin is picking up right where he left off. In 2018, he had a 2.91 SIERA, 1.13 WHIP, 31.8% strikeouts, and just 6.9% walks. This season, in 37.2 innings so far, he has a 3.46 SIERA, 1.02 WHIP, 30.4% strikeouts, and 6% walks. Biggest difference between this season and last, at least in the early going, is his fly ball rate is way up to 44.8% this season compared to just 26.8% last season. Typically regarded as a ground ball pitcher, this is a bit strange, but there’s nothing else in the numbers that suggests this could lead to a larger problem. The hard contact is actually down this year from 41.7% to a more comfortable 33.5%. The Phillies obviously have some big names in their lineup so there’s no question about a lower floor here, but I love Corbin’s upside and I feel better about his ability to put up a big game more than anyone else available to us tonight.

Chris Bassitt (DK: $8K, FD: $9.5K) | RHP | OAK @ PIT

In the mid-tier today, Bassitt is standing out as a potential option on DraftKings. I'm not touching him at his price on FanDuel. The downside is we don’t have a ton to work with here when it comes to data. In 2018, he pitched only 47.2 innings, with a 4.45 SIERA, 1.24 WHIP, 20.3% strikeouts, and 9.3% walks. He has average GB/FB rates and hard contact allowed. Opposing left-handed hitters had only a .263 wOBA while opposing right-handed hitters had a .300 wOBA against him last season. Based on this sample, nothing truly jumps off the page. He’s not a very high upside pitcher with a lot of average numbers but he’s not getting lit up either. In 2019, again using a small sample of only 12 innings pitched, he’s off to a very encouraging start including a 3.09 SIERA, 0.75 WHIP, 34% strikeouts, and forcing 50% ground balls. Regression should set in given the unsustainable .160 BABIP against him, but even still, the higher strikeout rate and lower walks are impressive in the early going. The good news, however, is the match up against a non-scary Pittsburgh lineup. First, this game is in Pittsburgh, which means no DH. So right off the bat we can give a boost to Bassitt’s floor/ceiling getting to throw against a pitcher. The Pirates have just a .297 wOBA, .146 ISO, and 84 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. They don’t strikeout a lot, 20.8% of the time, and I’m not ready to buy Bassitt’s 34% strikeout rate this season yet, so this could limit some of the upside here. The floor, however, is strong given the match up, pitcher’s park and very low 7.5 O/U Vegas has set for this game.

Yonny Chirinos (DK: $6.8K, FD: $7.6K) | RHP | TBR @ BAL

Ryne Stanek will take the hill as the opener today and we are expecting Yonny Chirinos to get the bulk of the innings. I will preface this by saying that Tampa Bay has NOT confirmed who the follow pitcher will be. I’m drawing a reasonable assumption here based on the Rays' depth chart and when the last time is that people pitched. Chirinos last worked five days ago, on April 29th, and went 5.2 innings. Today is in line with this typical schedule, but if you decide to use him, just know the Rays can always change their mind during the game of who they bring out. That’s the risk you take when you use Tampa pitchers not named Snell, Morton, or Glasnow. Assuming Chirinos does pitch, this is a good spot against a weak Baltimore offense for him to get in five to six innings at this cheap price tag (especially on DraftKings). He’s off to a solid start this season with his 2019 numbers pretty lined up with what we saw in 2018. Last season, in 89.2 innings pitched he had a 3.96 SIERA compared to a 3.95 SIERA in 31 innings so far this year. Strikeouts are up to 23.1% from 20.3%, and walks are down to 5.5% from 6.9%. A potential red flag I’m seeing is in his batted ball profile. His ground ball rate is down to just 33.7% and his fly ball rate is up to 43.4% (compared to 43.2% ground balls and 32.5% fly balls last season). The hard contact allowed is nearly identical to last season at 41.7% (42% in 2018). We never like pitchers who allow a high hard contact and high fly ball rate, as it can spell disaster, but with so many of his other metrics so positive and his price tag today, it’s definitely a risk I’m willing to take. Baltimore, like the Pirates who we just discussed, are a non-scary match up with just a .300 wOBA, .156 ISO, and 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They surprisingly don’t strikeout as much as I thought they would at 21.6% but that should be enough for Chirinos to do some damage. It’s not a great pitcher’s park, which increases the risk, but I’m confident in Chirinos and he makes a lot of sense as an SP2 option on two pitcher sites today. 

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

I'm going to avoid the games in Colorado and Texas, as they are super obvious and will likely get most of the attention from the field. There are three other, less obvious (mostly) spots, that I have a lot of interest in tonight. I'll highlight those teams instead.

Boston Red Sox vs Manny Banuelos (LHP – Chicago White Sox)

I love slates like today for tournaments. We have a few games with huge totals that will likely get a ton of attention (rightfully so). One of my favorite strategies on nights like tonight is to find those offenses that normally carry high ownership, but could be forgotten about, and make sure to give myself exposure. Boston has been less than exciting so far this season. I fully admit that, but we know this is a lineup capable of going off at any point. While the rest of the field is figuring out how to smash in bats at Coors and in Texas, we’ve got a Red Sox lineup that is really reasonably priced (Mookie is the only bat over $4.5K on DraftKings) taking on the lefty Manny Banuelos, a former top prospect of the Yankees. He’s a nice story so far this season, trying to get his career going again as a member of the White Sox and now getting an extended look in the rotation after the Ervin Santana epic failure (who didn’t see that coming?) His two starts, however, have both been against Baltimore, and four of his six appearances this season have been against either Baltimore or Kansas City. Not exactly a murderer’s row of offenses. This will be his first true test against a Boston lineup and I want to put myself in position to take advantage if the pressure gets to him. Small samples here but Martinez (.655 wOBA, .619 ISO), Bogaerts (.502 wOBA, .400 ISO), and Vazquez (.438 wOBA, .423 ISO) are jumping off the page against left-handed pitching this season. Mookie’s numbers are actually horrendous against lefties so far but this is Mookie Betts we're talking about, you’re not fading him over a 34 PA sample. Same with Steve Pearce who has made a career out of smashing left-handed pitching and I expect to be in the lineup tonight. I’ll be heavy on the BoSox tonight.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Dylan Bundy (RHP – Baltimore Orioles)

Another team I’m loving that is away from all the noise at Coors Field and in Texas is the Tampa Bay Rays going up against our favorite DFS punching bag, Dylan Bundy. This is a massive positive park shift for the Rays going to Camden Yards and Bundy keeps doing Bundy things, as we are up to nine home runs allowed in just six starts after giving up two more bombs in his last start against the Twins. He has an awful 2.86 HR/9 while allowing 51.9% fly balls and a 22% HR/FB. He’s worse against lefties, with a 6.18 xFIP and only 16.7% strikeouts in 28.1 innings pitched this season. But truth be told, he’s really bad against both sides of the plate, so I don’t see a need to prioritize one over the other. Give me all of the Tampa Bay bats tonight including Lowe (.420 wOBA, .301 ISO), Pham (.395 wOBA, .187 ISO), Garcia (.367 wOBA, .218 ISO), Choi (.365 wOBA, .200 ISO), and Kiermaier (.339 wOBA, .235 ISO).

San Diego Padres vs Rich Hill (LHP – Los Angeles Dodgers)

Hill is shaping up to be chalk tonight. I understand the logic. Even with their improved roster, San Diego is mediocre at best against left-handed pitching. They have just a .296 wOBA and 89 wRC+ and their 26.8% strikeout rate against southpaws this season is seventh most in the majors. But Rich Hill is a 39 year old injury-prone pitcher that I have zero interest in rostering if he’s going to be possibly the highest owned pitcher on the slate. The strategy here is to take the leverage and roll out some Padres stacks hoping that Hill will crash and burn (which is absolutely in his range of outcomes). While San Diego’s numbers this season don’t look great, there is reason to be optimistic. Machado is heating up with double-digit fantasy points in three straight games. He has a ridiculous 1.350 wOBA+ISO over his last 20 games against left-handed pitching. Machado, Renfroe (.604 wOBA+ISO vs LHP), Reyes (.625 wOBA+ISO vs LHP), and Myers (.594 wOBA+ISO vs LHP) could be a very dangerous combo. Ian Kinsler is also taking full advantage of his opportunities at the top of the order with 30 and 14 fantasy points in his last two games. He has a .690 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching in his last 20 games. These guys are dirt cheap with plenty of upside and could allow you to fit in some of the bats in Coors and Texas while providing leverage on all the Rich Hill lineups that will be out there. The chances of this working are lower than I’d like but the possible upside is enormous. 

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

JD Martinez (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.1K) | OF | BOS @ CWS

This was highlighted in the “On Deck” podcast yesterday with Joe and Chris but I will reiterate it here. Martinez is WAY too cheap right now. He was $4.4K yesterday and he’s only $4.5K today. That’s basically a free square for someone with his kind of production. I mentioned it in the stack section but it’s worth saying again. Although it’s a small sample, he has a .655 wOBA and .619 ISO against left-handed pitching so far this season. He has a .790 wOBA+ISO in his last 150 games against left-handed pitching as well, so it’s not like this season’s production is random. He’s listed as the second best value for an offensive player on LineStar’s projection page today (DraftKings).  

Christian Vasquez (DK: $3.8K, FD: $2.6K) | C | BOS @ CWS

You guys getting the hint yet how much I like Boston? Vasquez makes for an excellent, not quite “punt” but below $4K option at catcher tonight and he is destroying left-handed pitching so far this season. In his last 20 games against a lefty, he has a .845 wOBA+ISO and a 3.05 FP/PA. He also has a 66.7% hard-hit rate over the past two weeks. Low floor but tons of upside at a cheap price tag makes him the perfect candidate to fill that difficult catcher position on DraftKings. He’ll be super sneaky tonight on FanDuel as well, where the catcher spot isn’t required.

Pete Alonso (DK: $4.9K, FD: $4K) | 1B | NYM @ MIL

Alright, let me move away from some teams I’ve already discussed tonight. Alonso is arguably my favorite one-off hitter of the slate. I admit, he’s cold right now and expensive (though his price did drop $400 on DraftKings overnight) but this is a great spot for him to get back on track. First, the park shift. He goes from very pitcher friendly Citi Field to very hitter friendly Miller Park in Milwaukee. He’s taking on Gio Gonzalez who was released by the Yankees and signed by a very desperate Brewers team (ironically enough the Mets were going after him too). Gonzalez is simply not a strong pitcher. The one thing he has going for him tonight is the Mets are a lefty heavy lineup with McNeil, Cano, Conforto, and Nimmo, which is why I’m more interested in Alonso as a one-off instead of a full Mets stack. In 2018, Gonzalez had a 4.75 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, 19% strikeouts, and 11.9% walks against right-handed batters. Alonso, meanwhile, has a career 1.207 wOBA+ISO and 3.41 FP/PA against left-handed pitching (small sample).  

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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