- LineStar MLB DFS & Prop Bets
- Posts
- Top MLB DFS Plays 5/4 | May the 4th Be With You š
Top MLB DFS Plays 5/4 | May the 4th Be With You š
By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat
Subscribe Now š Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher
Try a new DFS platform, make some $$$
Happy Star Wars Day! Sorry for the generic overused title but I couldn't resist. Weāre in line for another busy, jam-packed evening of MLB action. Tonightās main slate will feature 11 normal nine-inning games. The DraftKings main slate will also include the second game of the doubleheader between the Cubs and Dodgers. Remember that all DH games only play seven innings (barring the game going into extras). For that reason, I usually steer clear of the offenses but pitchers can still definitely be in play. There is a lot to get to, especially with a bevy of weather concerns, so weāll get right into it!
Match-ups with implied run totals and Moneyline odds:
Weather Outlook āļøāļø
Quite a few games to keep an eye on today. Fortunately, all the delay/PPD threats belong to games that are on the earlier side of the main slate so we should have a pretty good idea of everyoneās intentions once we near the start of the slate (7:05 ET).
ATL @ WAS: Scattered storms in the area but not heavy enough coverage to pose a major PPD threat. Some sort of delay may not be off the table though.
MIL @ PHI: Another area where low coverage storms could bring a late start/delay into play.
HOU @ NYY: Rain moving in but looks like the worst of it could come later, but still possibly during the game. Again, a delay at some point is a pretty legitimate possibility while a PPD canāt be totally ruled out either.
LAD @ CHC: [DK Only, Game 2 of DH] Temps around 50 degrees all game with near 10 mph winds blowing IN from left field. Bit of a bump to pitchers.
NYM @ STL: Plenty of rain in St. Louis today but it starts to fade a little later in the evening. If the worst of the storms are past the stadium in time, it looks like a late start is in order and theyāll just play a bit further into the night. Postponement comes into play if the field conditions are too swamped and/or the rain lingers longer than anticipated. Keep an eye on this one for sure, especially since it involves the slateās top arm in Jacob deGrom.
Pitchers to Consider ā¾
Aaron Nola (RHP) | DK: $10.4k, FD: $9.2k | vs. MIL
The obvious āspend upā option is, of course, Jacob deGrom (DK: $11.1k, FD: $12.5k) facing off against a slightly below average St. Louis offense. Get him in if you can fit him in, but remember to keep an eye on the forecast in that game. Aaron Nola represents a high-end pivot off of deGOAT. Nolaās DFS ceiling is in the vicinity of deGromās, he just doesnāt hit that ceiling nearly as often as deGrom does. The strikeouts are down a bit this season for the Phillies ace (25.8% kRate) but Nola is still posting strong overall numbers elsewhere: 3.11 ERA, 3.38 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, and heās allowing just a 27.6% HardHit%. Milwaukeeās 27.0% kRate against RHPs this season is the 4th highest in the league and they possess just a 78 wRC+ which ranks as the 4th lowest. They did get a couple of key offensive contributors back into the mix yesterday with Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain returning from multi-week absences but itās not like the Brew Crew was lighting up the scoreboard even when they were closer to 100% health.
Huascar Ynoa (RHP) | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8k | @ WAS
Ynoa brings some risk to the table purely because of the power he is prone to giving up. Heās allowing a 51.5% HardHit% and 9.4% Barrel Rate which has led to a relatively high 1.65 HR/9 Rate. But he has been excellent this season in every other facet of the pitching game. He holds a low 2.96 ERA which is backed up by an even better 2.61 xFIP. Ynoaās strong 14.6% SwStr% has also led to a lofty 32.1% kRate. Heās bringing some major heat with an average fastball velocity of 96.7 mph and he has stranded 88.9% of base runners. The Nationals have a fairly intimidating list of names on offense and they are riding a four game win streak. But on the season they still hold a league worst 76 wRC+ vs. RHPs and the absence of Juan Soto makes this a much less deadly batch of hitters.
Nick Pivetta (RHP) | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.3k | vs. DET
Welp, I suppose itās time to get back to the script where we just plug and play pitchers against Detroit. The Tigers have been shut out in three of their last four games and have scored two runs or fewer in 12 of their last 16. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, they hold a miserable .172 AVG, .236 wOBA, 50 wRC+, and 31.6% kRate -- all figures which rank dead last in the MLB in that span. Pivetta is having a decent year himself, though his 2.81 ERA through five starts (25.2 IP) is flimsily held up by a less-than-stellar 4.99 xFIP, so it would seem he has gotten fairly lucky this season to earn that low of an ERA. Still, he has put up a respectable 24.0% kRate and 1.25 WHIP while opponents are hitting just .174 against him. It wonāt take a Herculean effort to keep these Detroit bats in check and the Red Sox will also come in as the second-heaviest favorites on the slate with -185 moneyline odds.
DraftKings Only:
I would definitely look to get some exposure to Trevor Bauer ($10,700) when he takes the mound in the second leg of their doubleheader against Chicago. Not only is he just clearly one of the more elite arms in the league, he has a great chance to pitch the gameās full seven innings and earn a bit of a ācheapā complete game bonus, which DK does still reward in seven inning games. If he manages to hold the Cubbies scoreless through seven innings, heāll also snag the CGSO bonus as well. That is five extra DKFP that Bauer has a much better chance of getting over any other pitcher on the DK main slate today.
Team Stacks to Target šÆ
Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. Itās just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.
Top Stacks: Iām not feeling like anyone or two teams are easy standout targets today. I suppose many may look towards some Red Sox bats but if youāre buying the core pieces to that lineup, youāre paying a pretty penny and likely losing out on paying for one of the pricier pitchers. But they do find themselves in a good spot at home facing against Michael Fulmer and a bad Tigers bullpen.
Kansas City Royals vs. Sam Hentges (LHP), CLE
Cleveland will be throwing Sam Hentges to the wolves as he is set to make his first Major League start after dealing only 5.2 innings in relief this season. With COVID shutting down the minor league circuit over the last year plus, Hentges is being forced to take that huge leap from Double-A ball and is thrust directly into the MLB spotlight. Heāll probably be in line for about 60 or so pitches and 3-4 innings of work and could easily find himself in early trouble against a fairly strong Royals offense. A respectable Cleveland bullpen will be backing him up for the remainder of the game, but Kansas City could still manage to get some production going against a set of above average relief pitchers.
San Diego Padres vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT
Keller is struggling with his control this season which has led to a high 14.1% Walk Rate and a slate-worst 1.98 WHIP and 8.20 ERA (5.05 xFIP). Offensively, the Padres have not necessarily met expectations but when they get a match-up against a below average starting pitcher, they are about as likely to score 10+ runs as any offense in baseball. Aside from Fernando Tatis Jr., who will almost always be a popular one-off option, I donāt see a massive amount of ownership falling on a Padres stack this evening so it feels like a good time to grab some shares.
The āKinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Outā
Texas Rangers vs. J.A. Happ (LHP), MIN
The truly crazy stacks today would be something like the Cardinals going against deGrom or the Cubs against Bauer in a seven inning game, but Iām not going that far deep into the realm of insanity today. Instead, letās look at some Texas bats as they face off with J.A. Happ. Texas has averaged six runs/gm over their last three and their offense certainly has some guys with some great āpop offā potential. Really, their big issue this season has been the high rate in which they strikeout. Fortunately for them, Happ is only striking out 14.9% of hitters and he also holds a poor 5.43 xFIP -- second worst among SPs on the slate. Plenty of cheap bats to choose from here and I doubt any will be too highly owned.
One-Off Hitters āļø
SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Michael Fulmer (RHP), DET
Xander has been providing some excellent production as of late so I have no issues paying up for him and hoping he stays hot in this plus match-up against Fulmer & Detroitās struggling bullpen. In the last two weeks (12 games, 49 at-bats), Bogaerts is hitting .306 with a .426 wOBA, .388 ISO, and 178 wRC+ while striking out just 14% of the time. Heās racked up four doubles and five home runs in that span and does have a HR against Fulmer among his six career plate appearances against him.
3B Austin Riley | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Joe Ross (RHP), WAS
Even though heās been crushing the last couple weeks, people still stay away from Riley due to his low spot in the batting order. With the Braves being on the road today (and thus, guaranteed to bat in the 9th inning), Rileyās likely 7th position in the batting order is a bit less of a detriment. In a way, you can also view that seven hole spot as āsecond clean-upā and Riley has definitely been producing in that role. Over the last two weeks, Rileyās 252 wRC+ ranks third in the MLB (min. 30 PA) behind only Mike Trout and Buster Posey. He is hitting .474 in that span with a .559 wOBA and .289 ISO. Riley is still very affordable on both sites and is usually someone you want to roster when theyāre on a hot streak like this.
OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL
Iām fairly certain that Haniger has been mentioned in this section more than any other player this season. FanDuel is starting to price him more appropriately but DraftKings is still throwing out the disrespectful sub-$4k salary. After knocking out his third home run in his last four games, I think we can go back to him here as a power lead-off hitter in a decent (but not great) match-up.
1B/OF Alex Kirilloff | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), TEX
Probably the easiest one-off pick to make. Kirilloff remains dirt cheap and showed yesterday that he isnāt necessarily home run dependent after going 2-for-4 with two doubles, an RBI, and three runs scored. Heās still hitting just .210 on the season, but it would obviously seem that things are clicking for him lately.
Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams mentioned above in the stack section:
Home Run Call of the Day š£š„
1B Carlos Santana | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Sam Hentges (LHP), CLE
Santana should get at least two cracks at the lefty Hentges today. This season he has hit lefties to the tune of a .367 AVG with a .427 wOBA, .200 ISO, and has only struck out only 3% of the time. Despite only facing 20 RHBs in limited action this season, Hentges has already given up three homers to that side of the plate along with a 50% Hard Contact Rate. Santana has knocked out four HRs in the last two weeks, and Iāll look for him to smack a fifth one tonight.
Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubbaās (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogmanās (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.
Invest in LineStar! We quickly blew past $600K raised from fans that want to share in the future growth of Sports Gambling Tech at Fantasy Sports Co. Learn More @ SeedInvest.com/Fantasy.Sports
LineStar MLB Freeroll
We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!
Check back here tomorrow for the Wednesday freeroll!
1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirtļ»æ
Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!
Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!
šØ Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium šØ
Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!
Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.