By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Saw some nice wins from the LineStar fam on yesterday’s slate so let’s run it back tonight, shall we? It’s a double-slate Wednesday and I hope anyone who dabbled in the early six-gamer is well on their way to some nice profit by the time you’re reading this!

A seven-game main slate will head our way this evening. As usual, when it comes to the DFS side of things, offense is more difficult to come by than finding quality starting pitchers but, in general, this feels like a fairly balanced slate on the surface. Of course, Coors Field remains on the docket, and yesterday’s Coors game produced quite a few high-scoring MLB DFS plays, particularly on the Nationals side of the plate. I believe you start the slate by deciding on what sort of exposure you’d like to give that game then go from there. But whatever process you put into action today, let’s make it a winning one!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

MIN @ BAL (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Some afternoon rain could linger into the evening and possibly force a late start, but not overly likely.

LAA @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Moderate rain coverage in Boston which may lead to some sort of delay. They probably play this one alright but starting pitchers may carry some added risk. Check the outlook here closer to lock.

CWS @ CHC (7:40 ET, 7 O/U): Chilly temps in the 40s with light winds blowing IN from left. Slight bump to pitchers.

WAS @ COL (8:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): Rain is expected around the Denver area but should avoid running over the ballpark. Some level of delay risk exists, however.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.8k | vs. CIN

Until further notice, the Reds just need to be one of those “flowchart teams” that we look out for when deciding on our starting pitchers. So let’s check the flowchart: Are the Reds playing? If the answer is “yes,” is the opposing pitcher’s arm stronger than a noodle? If the answer is “yes,” consider that pitcher for your DFS lineups today.

Yes, the hitters for the Reds are still MLB caliber players but they’re just not… uhhh, the best of the best. Against RHPs this season, they’re hitting a flat .200 (ranks 29th) to go along with a 71 wRC+ (tied for last), and a 25.3% kRate (4th highest). Peralta had a couple of lackluster starts to begin his season but he’s coming off of an excellent performance in his last outing where he pitched six shutout innings where he allowed only three hits and struck out seven. He’s posting a strong 3.32 xFIP and 29.5% kRate on the season. As he continues to shake the rust off, that kRate figure will likely climb considering he has ended each of his other four full MLB seasons with a kRate somewhere between 29.9% and 37.6%. Given the match-up and his proven ability to surpass that 30 DKFP/50 FDFP threshold, it’s a bit of a surprise to see Peralta as the fourth-most expensive option on both sites when he could have easily been priced as the first or second. His sub-$9k price tag likely makes him the highest-owned pitcher on the slate today but, much like his teammate Brandon Woodruff who K’s up 12 Cincy hitters on yesterday’s slate, Peralta will be a tough guy to fade. The Brewers are by far the heaviest favorites on the slate (-270) and the Reds have a low 3.1 implied run total.

Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.9k | @ BAL

If it wasn’t for a disastrous first inning in his last start against the Rays where he allowed four runs on five hits and a walk, Bundy would have gone on to post his fourth solid game in as many starts this season. After that inning, Bundy covered five more frames where he allowed only two more hits, a walk, and two runs while ending his day with seven strikeouts. Overall in 2022, he has a sharp 2.95 ERA and 3.02 xFIP to go with a 29.9% CSW% (called + swinging strike %). He’ll face off against his former team in his old ballpark at Camden Yards. However, that ballpark is no longer the hitter’s paradise that it once was most likely due to the off-season renovations. Among all 30 ballparks, Camden Yards currently accounts for the second-lowest run factor and by far the lowest home run factor this season. The Orioles are not a horrible offense this season but they’re still well below average. Against RHPs, they’re hitting .219 (ranks 23rd) with a .284 wOBA (22nd) and 24.4% kRate (9th highest). If we continue to see the “good version of Bundy” today, he may be worth a pivot off of Peralta given his similar DFS prices (though, Peralta is certainly the safer option).

Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.7k | vs. MIN

There is not much to like about any of the cheap pitchers today so take this play with an abundance of caution. Bradish got the call up and made his MLB debut last Friday against the Red Sox. If you’re just looking at his 9.9 DKFP/22 FDFP that he scored in that game, you might assume that he struggled. In reality, he pitched a solid game. He threw 81 pitches which were enough to cover six full innings. In that time, he permitted six total base runners (1.00 WHIP) and allowed two runs -- good enough to earn a ‘quality start.’ The glaring downside came from Bradish only earning two strikeouts (8.7% kRate). Even though it’s much more difficult to strikeout MLB hitters as opposed to minor leaguers, Bradish posted an excellent 29.8% kRate in three Triple-A starts this year and a 27.8% kRate in 21 Triple-A games (19 starts) last year, so he certainly has better strikeout stuff than what he showed against Boston. The Red Sox are also a tough team to strikeout with their 20.4% kRate vs. RHPs (4th lowest).

Minnesota is an above-average offense vs. RHPs (106 wRC+, ranks 13th) but they offer up more strikeout potential (24.4% kRate, 7th highest). If Bradish can manage to pitch another five or six innings, it would seem highly unlikely he throws only two strikeouts again. He’s worth more of a look in DraftKings GPPs as an SP2, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets closer to 15-20 DKFP (or around 30-35 FDFP) today… so long as he continues to limit those base runners.

Also Consider:

Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10k | @ CHC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks:

Colorado Rockies vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Washington Nationals vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Other Stacks to Consider:

New York Yankees vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

At this point, the Yankees stack has every right to carry higher ownership than either Coors stack. Across their current 11-game win streak dating back to 4/22, they’ve scored 79 total runs (7.2 runs/gm) and they’ve hit for a .284 AVG, .382 wOBA, .241 ISO, and 157 wRC+. I probably don’t need to say it, but those figures are all tops in the Majors during that span. They’ve been even more lethal when facing lefty pitching in that time: 139 plate appearances, .281 AVG, .410 wOBA, .320 ISO (!!!), with a 177 wRC+. Poor Yusei Kikuchi is heading directly towards a buzzsaw that there’s nothing he can do about it. Kikuchi has not been good this season and his 5.52 ERA, 5.29 xFIP, 1.91 WHIP, and massive 18.1% Walk Rate are just about the worst figures among today’s starters. Also, in 66 PA against this Yankees team, he is allowing a .357 AVG, .461 wOBA, and .268 ISO with only a 12.1% kRate. He hasn’t pitched more than 3.2 innings in three of his four starts this season so it is likely that the Yankees will face the Toronto bullpen for the majority of the innings today. It’s a bullpen that has underperformed -- they rank around the middle to the bottom half in most meaningful bullpen metrics. Surely this Yankees run will end soon… surely… but perhaps not today.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton | Sneaky Bat: Aaron Hicks

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

If Gutierrez was playing for just about any other MLB team, he’d probably already be back down in the minor leagues until he finds some form because the guy has been really, really bad. In his four starts (17.0 IP), he has accumulated a 7.41 ERA, 7.04 xFIP, 6.43 SIERA, 1.94 WHIP, 18.1% Walk Rate, and he’s forcing just a 6.7% Swinging Strike Rate and 13.3% kRate. The Brewers have struggled with strikeouts this season (25.1% kRate vs. RHPs, 6th highest) so getting some at-bats against a low strikeout pitcher should do them some good. It’s a terrible sign when any pitcher has a 5.00+ ERA and their xFIP and SIERA metrics also come close to matching their ERA -- it shows that they’re not just getting poor luck with BABIP or only getting rocked due to things like pitching in hitter’s ballparks or poor defense. In Gutierrez’s case, his ERA is considerably worse as it is into the 7.00+ range and his xFIP/SIERA numbers are not too far behind. No matter how ugly things got, the Reds have allowed Gutierrez to pitch at least four full innings in each of his starts so all of the Brewers hitters will probably see Gutierrez at least twice before a poor Cincinnati bullpen comes in to try to finish things out.

Favorite MIL Bats: Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Kolten Wong | Sneaky Bat: THE GREAT Hunter Renfroe (he’s pretty much “home run or bust,” but he might get one today)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

I’ll go ahead and state that I’m not cooling off on Cortes just because he had a ho-hum outing in his last start against Kansas City. The Royals may not be a vaunted offense but one thing they rarely do is strikeout against lefties (17.7% kRate) and they have just a 12.3% kRate against the cutter this season. The cutter has been the secret ingredient to Cortes’ success this year and it’s a big reason why he currently has a 1.31 ERA, 2.06 xFIP, and 35.9% kRate despite only forcing a 9.6% kRate. Cortes has thrown that cutter on 38.7% of his pitches. While the Blue Jays do have a 27.1% kRate against the cutter, they’re also demolishing that pitch when they get the bat on the ball. Versus 257 cutters thrown at them this season, they’re posting a .415 wOBA with a monstrous .438 ISO. They’ve been fairly mediocre against LHPs this season (.236 AVG, .297 wOBA, 93 wRC+) but they could do a bit of damage today. Maybe don’t run out four or five-man Blue Jay stacks but two-man or three-man mini stacks will carry some low ownership today.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer | Sneaky Bat: Matt Chapman

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

SS Willy Adames | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

1B Josh Bell | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

SS Carlos Correa | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

OF JD Martinez | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

2B/OF Chris Taylor | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

Had a lot of these value picks hit yesterday but I have a feeling it will be tougher sledding for the cheap bats today. Let’s see if we can get some find some gold in the bargain bin anyway.

2B/3B Josh Harrison | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Austin Slater | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

OF Yadiel Hernandez | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Austin Hayes | DK: $3k, FD: $3k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN

3B Jason Vosler | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

OF Trevor Larnach | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

3B Jose Miranda | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

Hear me out, I know Cortes is pitching like a possessed mustached man this season and has also only allowed one HR in 20.2 IP. I’m also aware Vlad Jr. is in a bit of a slump (by his standards) right now, particularly in the home run department. I’m almost certainly digging far too deep into the analytics here but let’s just have some fun. Guerrero Jr. has been excellent against that cutter pitch which, as mentioned above, it’s the pitch type that Cortes has thrown 38.7% of the time this season. It’s a small 32 pitch sample size but Vlad Jr. has posted a .500 AVG against cutters along with a .746 wOBA, 1.000 ISO (!), and two of his six home runs have come on cutters (quick math, that’s 33.3%) despite those 32 pitches accounting for only 8.8% of the total pitches thrown at him this season. If Cortes goes out there and throws a bunch of cutters at Vlad Jr. and he DOES manage to go yard, well… Yankees, feel free to hit me up for a job upstairs or something. My final point: Vlad Jr. has just one homer in his last 16 games so HE’S DUE to get hot soon.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Dylan Bundy OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | +120 | 2.0 Units

I went with this same prop in Bundy’s last start and, despite a disastrous first inning against the Rays, Bundy hung in there and had a strong game after that opening inning while finishing with seven Ks. The Orioles have a 24.4% kRate this season and, albeit a small sample size, in 26 PA against these O’s hitters, he has come away with a 30.8% kRate. Bundy has covered at least five innings in all four of his starts in 2022 and the 94 pitches he threw last week were a season high. Look for him to record at least another five Ks today.

Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (from hits) | +130 | 2.0 Units

This is a prop bet that has made multiple appearances in this section throughout the season and, at this point, I’m dumbfounded that the odds for this are still at plus money. It’s a prop that has cashed in eight of Judge’s last ten games, for cryin’ out loud! AND another poor lefty gets the undesirable task of trying to shut down Judge and this white-hot Yankee offense. In his last 20 games against LHPs (27 PA), Judge has posted a gigantic .467 wOBA and .583 ISO. I will never call any bet a “lock” but this feels like a pretty damned solid prop to place a wager on again today.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!