Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 5/31 "On Deck" podcast feat. Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

As usual, we kick our weekend off with an all-encompassing Friday slate with all 30 teams in play for us this evening. The “Year of the Slugger” looks to continue, as 12 of today’s 15 match-ups carry implied totals of nine runs or higher. Almost miraculously, after a pretty weather-impacted week, we have no notable issues in the forecast to worry about. As always, things could change later in the day, but right now it’s looking like pristine conditions across the board with a few areas possessing warmer, hitter-friendly conditions. Be sure to check out the LineStar Daily Dashboard to see all up-to-date game time temps and wind speeds/directions!

Today’s games with moneylines and implied totals:

Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.2k) | LHP | BOS @ NYY

Yes, the Yankees are a pretty scary match-up and hung seven hits and four runs on Sale back on April, 16th, but he’s been quite a bit more effective since his early season woes. In the seven starts (44.1 IP) since that match-up with the Yankees, Sale has posted much more Sale-like numbers with a 2.44 ERA, 2.84 xFIP, and 0.86 WHIP with a colossal 41.8% kRate. In that time, he is also allowing hitters just a .158 AVG and .249 wOBA. The Yankees also haven’t exactly been very stout against LHPs this year: .237 AVG (21st), .295 wOBA (24th), .139 ISO (23rd) with an 81 wRC+ (24th). They also strikeout at the third highest rate against lefties with a team 27.2% kRate. Yankee Stadium can be a worrying factor for a pitcher, considering hits that would typically be doubles in many stadiums can easily turn into home runs there, but that’s just part of the risk/reward factor with Sale this evening. The Red Sox are -150 road favorites with a 4.1 implied run total for New York.

Joey Lucchesi (DK: $8.8k, FD: $7.6k) | LHP | SD vs. MIA

Lucchesi is set up to be a popular arm to spend down on tonight, as he should carry a decent amount of safety and upside. He’s performed much better in his pitcher-friendly home at Petco Park where he has posted a 2.83 ERA/3.34 xFIP while allowing a .221 AVG/.272 wOBA with a 0.77 HR/9 Rate. The Marlins might have seen all of the trash talk people had to say about their offense and have won nine of their last 13 games. They actually may not be as bad as we initially thought to start the year. But regardless, going off of their road splits against lefties, they still rate out as one of the worst offenses in baseball. In 225 plate appearances against LHPs on the road, they have just a .225 AVG, .261 wOBA, .106 ISO, and 58 wRC+. With their (somewhat) newly invigorated bats, Miami may be able to string together a few hits against Lucchesi. However, they only have five home runs off of lefties on the road this year, so the chances of launching any off of Lucchesi seems low. The Padres are one of the heavier favorites of the night at -160 with Miami retaining the lowest implied total of 3.1 runs. Lucchesi’s FanDuel salary is also a bit of a misprice if you ask me.

Tyler Mahle (DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.2k) | RHP | CIN vs. WAS

There are certainly some intriguing options at the bottom of pitcher pricing, such as guys like Mikolas, Jurado, or Chacin -- nobody overly safe, but intriguing for sure. I’d put Mahle in that category, as he’s had strong outings in seven of his ten starts this season and this will be just his third time taking the mound at home. It’s a small sample size, but in 11 home innings this season, which came against the Marlins and Dodgers, he allowed just one run on six hits with 12 strikeouts. Washington is coming off of a 14-run thrashing of the Braves so they don’t seem like a great team to pick on but they’ve actually been one of the worst teams against RHPs, especially recently while on the road. In the last month when they have faced a righty on the road, the Nationals have just a .209 AVG (last), .268 wOBA (last), .127 ISO (29th), and 62 wRC+ (last). They also have been striking out in plenty of at-bats with a 25.1% kRate. It’s not a slam dunk play but there is solid potential for Mahle to hit around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field & Globe Life Park Notice: All four teams here have pretty obvious high stack potential. Colorado and Texas likely being the preferred options.

Cleveland Indians vs. Dylan Covey (RHP | CWS)

Expected Ownership: Medium

You know how to tell when a pitcher is not having a great season? When his walk rate is roughly 40% higher than his strikeout rate. On the season, Covey has just an 11.2% kRate and is walking 15.5% of batters. His 5.47 ERA is bad enough but he’s actually getting lucky to have an ERA that ‘low’ considering his 6.97 SIERA is a run and a half higher. Here are some Cleveland bats that have been hot versus RHPs over the last month: Carlos Santana (.467 wOBA, .462 ISO), Francisco Lindor (.388 wOBA, .195 ISO), and Oscar Mercado (.433 wOBA, .520 OBP). Also, as a reminder, the White Sox bullpen is among the worst in the league.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Mike Leake (RHP | SEA)

Expected Ownership: Medium (Mike Trout: High)

Leake has been a certified gas can in 2019. He’s allowing a .270 ISO to RHBs and a .238 ISO to LHBs while giving up eight home runs to each side of the plate. His kRate sits at a lowly 17.2%, which is in danger of dropping even further as he goes against the Angels who have the lowest strikeout rate in the league against righties at 17%. Mike Trout (.431 wOBA, .281 ISO) may be one of the most popular one-off hitters of the day as many people’s “late night hammer.” Elsewhere, I’d look to target Tommy La Stella (.411 wOBA, .275 ISO), and Kole Calhoun (.376 wOBA, .273 ISO).

Detroit Tigers vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP | ATL)

Expected Ownership: Low

On a 15 game slate, you probably don’t need to deploy super risky contrarian stacks like this but it’s still worth considering for game theory purposes. With temperatures around 85 degrees at first pitch and wind blowing out to left at 10 mph, Atlanta has about the most favorable conditions for hitters on the slate (outside of Colorado and Texas). Mike Foltynewicz has given up a massive .343 ISO to RHBs and .246 ISO to LHBs paired with a slate-high 45.1% Hard Contact Rate and 46.2% Fly Ball Rate. This Detroit lineup is pretty devoid of power, with just 44 home runs on the season, but Brandon Dixon (.399 wOBA, .298 ISO) has shown plenty of strength against righties and makes for the most logical batter to start a Tiger stack with. Nicholas Castellanos (.331 wOBA, .188 ISO) has been pretty consistent lately and JaCoby Jones (.299 wOBA, .165 ISO) doesn’t have great season-long stats but he’s had some stellar games over the last couple of weeks and will never carry much ownership due to being stuck at the back of the order.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

JD Martinez (DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.2k) | OF | vs. JA Happ (LHP)

Martinez has shown tremendous power in his match-ups with southpaws this season with a 1.016 wOBA+ISO. He has six homers off of LHPs in just 40 at-bats. Of Happ’s 14 home runs surrendered this season, 13 have been off of righty bats, resulting in a .288 ISO split. Martinez will be my home run call 💣 on this slate but with a .350 batting average against lefties, he’s definitely not going to be overly dependent on the long ball tonight.

Kyle Schwarber (DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k) | OF | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP)

Mikolas is typically more of a low-strikeout pitcher that relies largely on his command of the plate. Yet left-handed hitters, like Schwarber, have been his undoing on many occasions this season. Against LHBs, Mikolas is allowing a .401 wOBA and .287 ISO with just a 15.8% kRate. For a hitter who tends to strikeout a lot, like Schwarber, going against a lower strikeout pitcher should bode well for his “points per at-bat” potential. Schwarber has a huge 57.7% Hard Contact Rate over the last two weeks with an average exit velocity of 96.4 mph vs. RHP (top 95%). He’ll be in search of his fifth home run in just eight games tonight and likely grabs the lead-off spot once again.

Steve Pearce (DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k) | 1B/OF | vs. JA Happ (LHP)

If Red Sox manager Alex Cora is a BvP believer, he’ll have Pearce somewhere in the middle of the lineup tonight. In Pearce’s last 31 plate appearances against JA Happ, he has throttled him for a .308 AVG, 1.270 wOBA+ISO, with six home runs and 15 RBI. Pearce really hasn’t hit a stride yet this season, but across his lengthy career, he’s routinely been much stronger against southpaws. He’s still showing plenty of power with 57.1% Hard Contact over the last two weeks and, at these salaries, there is very little risk in rolling him out tonight.

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