By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

I hope everyone had a nice, long Memorial Day weekend! Time to get back on the attack with a huge Tuesday MLB slate! There are a dozen mutually shared games between the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates tonight -- DK has 13 total games with the inclusion of game two of the MIN @ DET doubleheader. As usual, the mutually shared games will be the focus of today’s newsletter.

As these sort of big slates typically go, there’s a little bit of everything sprinkled throughout the slate -- solid high-end pitching, plenty of viable SPs in the value and mid-range tiers, several offenses in high-upside spots, and game totals ranging anywhere from 6.5 runs to 10 runs. Coors Field is also on the docket but some bad weather may bring forth the possibility of a postponement -- more on that in the weather section below. Alright, let’s lock it in and get into this monster slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Coors Field will be the main PPD threat to watch out for today. As the vast majority of you are aware, Coors is always a popular DFS target when it comes to hitting options so whatever happens with that game, weather-wise, could have a notable impact on the slate overall.

The east coast will also feature multiple games with temperatures in the 80s/90s which could provide a boost to the hitters. Instead of taking up a ton of space below, here are the games that will feature those elevated temperatures: SEA @ BAL, LAA @ NYY, MIN @ DET (DK main slate only), WAS @ NYM, and SD @ STL.

CIN @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): The most notable thing to mention here are the temperatures, which will be in the 50s throughout the game. That’s a major difference when compared to some of those other east coast games listed above. Light winds blowing IN from right/center as well.

SD @ STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): One of those warmer games but winds will also be blowing OUT to left at around 10 mph.

MIL @ CHC (8:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Not incredibly warm but temps still around 80 degrees here. Most notably, winds will be blowing OUT to left/center at 10-15 mph at Wrigley. Nearby t-storms could pop up over the park but, currently, it’s unlikely.

🚨 MIA @ COL (8:40 ET, 10 O/U): 🚨 Temps right around 50 degrees for much of this game. There is a fairly high chance that a line of cold, persistent rain will fall over the ballpark throughout this evening. Winds also blowing IN from center at 10 mph. Unless a later forecast shows the rain shifting away from the ballpark, this will be a legitimate PPD threat to watch out for. And, if they do end up playing, it’s far from ideal hitting conditions even with the “Coors Field effect” factored in.

Note: For the purposes of this newsletter, I will avoid mentioning any players from this game due to the chance of PPD being too high.

ATL @ ARI (9:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): The roof at Chase Field is scheduled to be open. Temps in Phoenix will be in the upper-90s at first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.2k | vs. CWS

Gausman is stringing together another excellent season that continues to make him deserving of “ace status.” He’s rocking a 2.25 ERA, 2.40 xFIP, 2.55 SIERA, 1.04 WHIP, and he’s striking out 29.3% of batters while posting only a 2.3% Walk Rate. He leads all pitchers on this slate with an elite 17.4% Swinging Strike Rate as well. Gausman faces a White Sox team that was already struggling offensively (82 wRC+ vs. RHPs, third-lowest), but now they’ll be without their best hitter in Tim Anderson (groin, 10-day IL). Anderson joins other top White Sox hitters who are either on the IL or listed as day-to-day: Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, and Eloy Jimenez -- though, Robert (illness) could be making his return today after getting reinstated from the COVID-related IL this afternoon. Regardless, Gausman sets up as a great spend-up option on this slate. He’ll be a heavy -180 favorite at home and Vegas is pinning the White Sox with only a 3.3 implied run total.

Update: Luis Robert is not in the CWS lineup today. The White Sox will continue to roll out a heavily depleted lineup.

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.6k, FD: $8.7k | @ OAK

It’s just too easy to pick on the A’s offense, even though their bats have been improving lately (106 wRC+ over the last two weeks, ranks 15th). A big concern with Javier has been his limited workload, but he enters this game off of back-to-back starts throwing at least 91 pitches. Thanks to his strong strikeout upside (33.1% kRate), the extended leash allowed him to rack up 9 Ks in both of those starts and fantasy scoring results of 27 DKFP/46 FDFP & 32 DKFP/50 FDFP. Javier also leads all pitchers on this slate with a low 0.97 WHIP. Javier’s numbers improve noticeably when you look at his splits vs. RHBs: 2.52 xFIP, 0.80 WHIP, .143 opp AVG, 42.6% kRate (!!!). Oakland doesn’t have a ton of lefty bats to throw out there so Javier could be facing as many as seven or eight RHBs in the lineup today.

The Houston righty does possess a lofty 53.8% Flyball Rate and typically pitches better when he’s at home, but I don’t think a flyball pitcher could ask for a better pitching environment than the Oakland Coliseum, which features by far the most foul territory out of any big league park. Throughout the entire season, Oakland has posted just a 75 wRC+ vs. RHPs (second-worst) while hitting only .207 with a 24.1% kRate. It’s a great spot for Javier to post his third consecutive performance of >25 DKFP/40 FDFP. Javier will have a talented counterpart with Frankie Montas taking the hill for Oakland, but Houston remains as moderate -134 road favorites while Oakland holds a slate-low 2.9 implied run total. This game features what is easily the lowest total of the day with just a 6.5 O/U.

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7k | @ STL

If you’re searching for a “safe” pitcher outside of the high-end price range… well, this ain’t the play for you! Much of the risk with Snell stems from his opponent. The Cardinals have gone berserk against LHPs this season, leading the league with a 137 wRC+ and .362 wOBA while striking out only 17.9% of the time. The recent splits against lefties are quite consistent with those numbers as well, so there is not anything ‘fluky’ about their success against southpaws. They also have arguably the hottest hitter in baseball in their lineup with Paul Goldschmidt.

But when we place Blake Snell on an island, he’s a pitcher who can accumulate a load of strikeouts and has the potential to pitch at an ace-caliber level at any time. In each of the last four full seasons, Snell has not posted a kRate below 30.9%. Snell has worked his way back from a groin injury and will be making only his third start of the season today. However, it appears as if he is already fully stretched out after throwing 104 pitches against the Brewers last Tuesday. He is already posting a 31.6% kRate and 14.4% SwStr% this season, so the K upside is still there. He’ll need to get the walk rate down, however, as he has already issued five walks against 38 total batters faced (13.2% BB%). Snell has also shown some highly noticeable negative splits when pitching on the road, dating back to last season. In 2021, Snell had a 6.12 ERA on the road, compared to a 2.50 ERA at home and his strikeouts went from a 36.5% kRate at home down to a much less-impressive 25.4% kRate on the road. So, there are several things to be nervous about here, but this is a major leverage spot given Snell’s pOwn% of only 8%. Don’t roll him out in cash, but he’s certainly worth a look in GPPs.

Also Consider:

Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.6k | @ CHC

Julio Urias (LHP), LAD | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.8k | vs. PIT

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7k | @ BAL

*Cole Sands (RHP), MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.5k | @ DET

*DraftKings Main Slate Only

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

The Mets enter this slate as one of the hottest offenses in the league after posting a 150 wRC+ over the last week. Patrick Corbin’s 6.60 ERA is a bit inflated when you stack it next to his 4.40 xFIP and 4.48 SIERA, but he is clearly no longer a premium talent at the MLB level. Corbin is also getting hit hard quite often -- his 46.1% HardHit% stands out as one of the highest marks among today’s starters and he has allowed 10 barreled balls over the last month (bottom 5% among pitchers). As a team, the Mets have not been overly effective against LHPs as they possess an extremely average 101 wRC+ against southpaws. But they do have certain hitters who have been anywhere from good to great vs. LHPs this year. And we also can’t forget about the fact that a bottom 10 ranked Nationals bullpen will be following Corbin once his day is done. Also, remember that this will be one of those hitting environments that will feature temperatures at or around 90 degrees this evening.

Favorite NYM Bats: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte | Sneaky Bat: Mark Canha

Atlanta Braves vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

This is a Braves fan writing this but there is no bias here. The Braves have not hit for a great average (.232 AVG) and they strikeout far too much (26.6% kRate), but despite Atlanta’s very unreliable offensive outputs, they do one thing well -- they hit the ball hard. Atlanta leads the MLB with a 34.9% HardContact% vs. RHPs, their 10.4% Barrel% ranks second, and their 41% HardHit% ranks fifth. Fortunately for Atlanta's strikeout-prone offense, Humberto Castellanos is not a high strikeout pitcher (15.7% kRate) and he is susceptible to having “blow up” outings as we saw in his last start against the Dodgers and against the Cardinals back on 4/28. Overall, he has posted an unimpressive 5.22 ERA and 4.72 xFIP this season while allowing a .342 wOBA. A big incentive to stacking against the D-Backs is the hopes of getting to their terrible bullpen (4.57 xFIP, ranks last in MLB) as early as possible. Considering that Castellanos has not pitched more than 5.2 innings in any game this season, the Braves should expect to see at least three full innings worth of at-bats against the D-Backs ‘pen. The roof at Chase Field is also scheduled to be open tonight which is never a bad thing for offenses since temperatures in Phoenix will be in the upper-90s at first pitch. It’s not going to feel like that on the field but those high temps could certainly percolate into the air and help fly balls carry just a bit further.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson | Sneaky Bat: Michael Harris II

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SD

Blake Snell was highlighted above in the pitcher section, but the list of risks were mentioned in-depth as well. If he doesn’t have his best stuff going tonight, the Cardinals could easily come out and run up the score on him. As previously noted, St. Louis has statistically been the best offense in baseball against LHPs (137 wRC+, .362 wOBA this season) and they’re extremely tough to strikeout (17.9% kRate). Since joining the Padres in 2021, Blake Snell has also exhibited very poor road splits (6.12 ERA on the road last year). His high walk rate from last season seems to be bleeding into the start of his 2022 season as well. Outside of folks using the white hot Paul Goldschmidt as a one-off hitter, I don’t envision many people will be rolling out actual 3-to-5 man Cardinals stacks on such a big slate where there are other more enticing stack options. My personal prediction is that this “Cardinals vs. Snell” match-up will have two true outcomes; either Snell puts his high strikeout prowess on display and keeps St. Louis in check for 5-to-7 innings OR the Cardinals come out and just dismantle him from the get go. St. Louis will be rolling out eight RHBs against Snell today, which will make things that much more difficult for the Padres lefty.

Favorite STL Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman | Sneaky Bat: Albert Pujols

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), CIN

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SD

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Taylor Ward | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

C/OF Daulton Varsho | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Austin Hays | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), NYM

2B Cesar Hernandez | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), NYM

OF Kole Calhoun | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), TB

2B/OF Christopher Morel | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

2B/3B/SS Luis Guillorme | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Pavin Smith | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

OF Mark Canha | DK: $3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

Riley has the big bat going once again and has now blasted out four homers within his last six games. Chase Field seems to be a ballpark that Riley loves as well. In five career games at Chase Field, Riley is hitting .384 with a .606 wOBA, .714 ISO, 284 wRC+, with four home runs -- the most recent one coming last night in the Braves series opener against the D-Backs. Against RHBs, Humberto Castellanos has allowed a moderately high .354 wOBA, .159 ISO, 36.8% HardContact%, and 1.33 HR/9 this season. Although they don’t give up a ton of HRs, there’s nothing special about the D-Backs bullpen either. And, as mentioned a couple of times already in this article, the roof will be open at Chase Field tonight, temps in Phoenix will be in the upper-90s at first pitch, and that’s never a bad thing when it comes to home run potential at this ballpark.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Cristian Javier OVER 6.5 Strikeouts | +110 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

Javier enters with a prolific 33.1% kRate on the season and some previous concerns about his workload have been quieted following outings of 91 pitches and 96 pitches thrown in his last two starts (recorded 9 Ks in both starts). The A’s have not yet released their lineup at the time of this writing, but the current projected lineup is righty-heavy and features five hitters who have at least a 26.7% kRate vs. RHPs. If Oakland does end up rolling out a righty-heavy lineup, that will only play into Javier’s favor even more as he has an incredible 42.6% kRate vs. RHBs this season. He’ll have a great chance to put at least seven Ks on the board tonight. And eight or nine Ks seem to be well within his range of possible outcomes as well, so I’d be tempted to look at alternate strikeout lines for Javier in this game.

Austin Hays OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Hays has been swinging a pretty hot bat as of late and he’s hit the over on this particular prop in four of his last six games. He’s displayed some strong reverse splits on the season, hitting .357 with a .415 wOBA vs. RHPs. He’ll go up against a young right-hander in George Kirby, who will be making his fifth career MLB start -- and his third start on the road. Kirby has plenty of potential in the big leagues and he is considered to be the Mariners top pitching prospect. However, he skipped the Triple-A level entirely and entered the show coming straight from Double-A ball. He’s already flashed some upside, but he did struggle in his two previous road starts. He’s also allowing a .333 AVG, .423 wOBA, and.306 ISO to RHBs. Hitters may have the upper hand in this game as temperatures will be around 90 degrees with a light breeze blowing out to right. Hays is a sneaky bet to hit a home run in this game (+600 odds), but the safer bet would be for him to earn at least two bases. I believe he gets there -- if not by an extra base hit, then by smacking multiple hits in this game.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!