Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Last night in the bottom of the ninth inning of the Dodgers vs. Mets game, Max Muncy belted the MLB’s 2,213th home run of the 2019 season. With an average of 55 games played for each team across the league, we are right around a third of the way through the regular season. If we extrapolate the current home run count to a full season, we could reasonably expect upwards of 6,600 home runs this year, which would shatter the 2017 record of 6,105 dingers. Considering just as recently as 2014 that league-wide home runs totaled to 4,186, we really need to realize how centralized the game has become on the long ball. In theory, at the current pace, we could see around a 58% increase in home runs this year in comparison to that 2014 season -- and from here on out the weather is only going to get warmer, allowing balls to fly further! I think we can start to understand why so many ace pitchers aren’t often putting up ace-like numbers this year. It may be time to adjust some approaches we take in our MLB DFS ventures. Hard contact rate, fly ball percentages, isolated power, and ground ball rate are a few metrics which I may personally start to weigh more within my decision making. Since surrendering home runs is such a fantasy killer for pitchers, targeting teams with less power top to bottom may need to take more precedent. Adjust and evolve with the game or risk being left behind! We have a seven game Thursday main slate to work through with a couple of weather concerns, so let’s grease up the wheels and get rolling!

Today’s match-ups with game totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

BOS @ NYY: This slate could get cut to six games real quick-like. Rain will impact New York well before first pitch and hang around well after this game is scheduled to start up. There may not be a reasonable window in which this game can get played. A delay is almost a certainty and a postponement is very possible. I am going to skip mentioning anyone from this one for now but I’m looking at forecasts that are about 12 hours away from first pitch so things could always change.

MIL @ PIT: Rain in the Pittsburgh area will likely lead to a late start. The skies should clear up for a while but another line of storms may come through later on which could lead to another delay or possible risk of postponement. The second line of storms isn’t projected to last long but the big concern would be how well the field holds up. Overall though, it looks less risky than conditions in New York, so I’ll keep players from this game in consideration for the purposes of this newsletter.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Mike Minor (DK: $10.3k, FD: $9.2k) | LHP | TEX vs. KC

As I mentioned in the intro, I’m looking to alter my MLB DFS approach slightly, particularly with pitchers. Normally, when targeting a high-end pitcher on this slate, I’d probably be looking to highlight Ryu who has been incredible this year, especially at home. But digging into things, Minor should possibly have even more upside despite pitching in a great hitters environment like Globe Life Park. Minor has been stone cold at home this season. In 34.2 IP at home, he has a 2.08 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, and 27.8% kRate. He’s also allowing just a .213 AVG and .245 wOBA to hitters. Perhaps what is most appealing is the fact that he’s only given up one home run at Globe Life Park and his overall 9.6% HR/FB rate is among the lowest of all pitchers on the slate. What really points to a strong outing today is the match-up. The Royals have been weak versus lefties all season (.122 ISO, 68 wRC+, both rank 29th) but over the last month, they have been even worse, with a league-low .089 ISO against lefties and they pair that with a .268 wOBA and 62 wRC+ -- ranking 28th in both of those categories. They don’t strike out an extremely high amount of the time with a 21.8% kRate but that’s still about middle of the pack compared to the rest of the league. Texas is a -150 favorite while the park factor helps boost the Royals implied total to 4.6 runs. Minor is a bit risky (what pitcher isn't these days?) but is also a nice pivot from Ryu.

Martin Perez (DK: $9k, FD: $9k) | LHP | MIN @ TB

A month ago, paying these sort of salaries for Perez would have been pretty unthinkable. But the 28-year-old southpaw has been very effective in the majority of his outings this season. Similar to Mike Minor, his 9.3% HR/FB Rate is a strong number when compared to the rest of the field and his five home runs allowed through 58 innings this season has resulted in a strong 0.78 HR/9 Rate. He has also posted a 2.95 ERA, 22.9% kRate, 1.33 WHIP, with a reasonably low 34.6% Hard Contact Rate. The Rays, while not the best match-up, have below average power against lefties with a .147 team ISO this season which ranks 22nd. They also have a .307 wOBA (19th), 93 wRC+ (15th), and a league-high 30.2% kRate. So, despite the fact that the Rays have some dangerous hitters and the Twins will be slight underdogs (+128), this is a great spot for some strikeout upside from Perez and he should be able to mitigate the risk of allowing punishing home runs.

Yusei Kikuchi (DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.8k) | LHP | SEA vs. LAA

Wrapping up a trio of highlighted lefty pitchers, Kikuchi will take on an Angels team that has the lowest batting average in baseball versus LHPs at .218 and a subpar .153 team ISO (ranks 20th). The downside with the match-up being they strike out a league-low 15.9% of the time. Kikuchi does a great job at limiting hard contact at home to just 26.1% but has a fly ball rate of 45.6% which has led to six home runs given up in 25 home innings (2.56 HR/9). Still, we can hope that figure is a bit of an outlier as, overall, he has been better when pitching at home with a 3.24 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 23% kRate while allowing a .207 AVG and .287 wOBA. It’d be more encouraging if Mike Trout sits out a second consecutive game but early indications are that he will find himself back in the lineup. But as long as Kikuchi can cut down on the high fly ball rate that he has at home, he should have a better chance than not at eating up some innings and grabbing 18 to 21 outs of work en route to a handful of strikeouts. For his DFS prices, that would represent strong value.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jason Vargas (LHP | NYM)

Expected Ownership: Medium/High

Jason Vargas leads the slate with a 49% Hard Contact Rate and pairs that with a 43.5% Fly Ball Rate. Bad news against a team with the caliber of power hitters that the Dodgers possess. Vargas also gives up production to both sides of the plate and, overall, he is allowing a .352 wOBA this season with a 1.57 WHIP, 17% kRate, and has posted a very poor 5.81 xFIP. As usual, if you have the coin for Cody Bellinger (.471 wOBA, .358 ISO) you know what he is capable of. Elsewhere, Max Muncy (.365 wOBA, .276 ISO) and likely lead-off hitter Kike Hernandez (.387 wOBA, .222 ISO) both make for great high-upside stack candidates atop the order.

Cleveland Indians vs. Manny Banuelos (LHP | CWS)

Expected Ownership: Medium

Banuelos is allowing a .283 ISO to RHBs and .237 ISO to LHBs, so you shouldn’t be worried about attacking him with either side of the plate. Through 35 innings this season, Banuelos has posted a 7.71 ERA, 5.09 SIERA while allowing a .317 AVG and .418 wOBA. He has also surrendered 10 homers resulting in a 2.57 HR/9 Rate. The Indians aren’t loaded with incredible hitters but there are still a few guys that can give Banuelos (and a poor White Sox bullpen) plenty of fits. Jordan Luplow (.480 wOBA, .477 ISO vs. LHP) has been Cleveland’s best hitter against lefties and may find himself in the clean-up spot -- he’s also hit homers off of Banuelos in three of five at-bats against him. The speedy Oscar Mercado (.390 wOBA, .404 OBP) has been excellent lately and Carlos Santana (.403 wOBA, .226 ISO) fell just a single base hit shy of batting for the cycle yesterday. I’ll be rolling with Luplow as my home run call this evening. 💣💥

Chicago White Sox vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP | CLE)

Expected Ownership: Low

As potential leverage in GPPs, you could look to target some of the more powerful White Sox bats against Carlos Carrasco who projects to be fairly popular this evening. One thing Carrasco has struggled with this season is giving up the long ball. He has allowed 13 dingers already in 58.2 innings pitched (1.99 HR/9), including five homers surrendered in his last two games. This has also included a 41.7% Hard Contact Rate on a 40% Fly Ball Rate. Some White Sox batters who have shown the most power against righties this season are Jose Abreu (.286 ISO, 41.9% Hard Contact), Yoan Moncada (.256 ISO, 40.9% Hard Contact), and Tim Anderson (.201 ISO, 19.4% HR/FB).

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Shin-Soo Choo (DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k) | OF | vs. Jakob Junis (RHP)

The Rangers pretty comfortably have the highest implied total of the night at 5.3 runs, but stacking them can be an expensive endeavor. Choo is a Ranger who should provide a nice amount of safety and upside as a one-off bat given the match-up with Junis. Against LHBs, Junis is allowing a .292 AVG, .369 wOBA, .212 ISO and 41.9% Hard Contact. Choo is sporting a very healthy .313 AVG, .421 wOBA, .272 ISO versus RHPs this season and has a huge 52.6% Hard Contact Rate over the last two weeks against righties with an average exit velocity of 95.4 mph (top 90% among hitters). Likely hitting lead-off tonight, anything under a double-digit fantasy day for Choo would be a major surprise.

Avisail Garcia (DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.5k) | OF | vs. Martin Perez (LHP)

Garcia has been ultra consistent recently after scoring double digit DKFP in seven of his last nine games. In those nine games, he has posted a .342 AVG, .424 wOBA, and .263 ISO with a trio of home runs to boot. The match-up with Perez isn’t a great one but of the five home runs surrendered by him this season, they’ve all been at the hands of RHBs. Garcia has a 50% Hard Contact Rate against southpaws, so there’s a window of opportunity for him to launch his fourth home run in the last 10 days. Garcia’s price on FanDuel hasn’t fluctuated much while he’s been on this mini-tear, but his salary on DraftKings is down $800 from just two days ago and he will most definitely land in the top half of the order this evening -- likely in the clean-up position.

Kyle Seager (DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k) | 3B | vs. Felix Pena (RHP)

Seager made his season debut just five days ago, returning from a hand injury that he sustained back in March. His DFS salaries are still in the cellar and he represents some nice value, as he could potentially bat second in the order tonight against RHP Felix Pena. Seager is batting for a .347 AVG in his last 20 games (54 plate appearances) against RHPs and, in 2018, he had a .193 ISO on 41% Hard Contact/49.2% Fly Ball Rate versus righties. Pena is allowing a .198 ISO to LHBs along with a 43.1% Hard Contact Rate and a massive 50.9% Fly Ball Rate. It’s not a great bet but the numbers do line up for some home run potential to be had from the veteran third-baseman tonight. But at the very least, he has some multi-hit upside going.

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