By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

Be sure to subscribe to the LineStar YouTube channel! New video podcast episodes drop Monday-Friday featuring hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick (10-15 min.), informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown

A hefty 11-game 10-game main slate is rolling our way this Tuesday evening! Much like yesterday and, well, most slates thus far this season, the main battle will be landing on the correct spots for offense. This slate contains a massive amount of games with low implied totals -- seven of the eleven games own an implied total of 7.5 runs or fewer! Coors Field is on the docket once again (WAS @ COL, 10.5 O/U) and, as usual, it’s sticking out like a sore thumb when compared to projected offense across all the other games. Deciding on how to approach the Coors Field match-up should be a large part of everyone’s approach to this slate. Will you be loading up on the hitters like many will do today? Fading hitters entirely? Or will you be so bold as to take a shot on one (or both) of the starting pitchers? This feels like it’s gonna be a bit of a tricky one today so let’s hop in the driver’s seat and get rolling!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There will be one game on the slate that carries significant PPD concern out in Detroit. Meanwhile, a couple of other spots could see some rainfall at some point but it likely won’t be enough to force a PPD.

PIT @ DET (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): Rain throughout the day in Detroit and it will bleed into the time frame this game is scheduled to play. It could be mostly lighter stuff by that time so there is some chance they’ll decide to play, though, field conditions will play a factor as well. Should they play, winds will be blowing OUT to right at 10-15 mph. Check on the forecast here closer to lock. With 10 other games on the docket, there is enough PPD risk in this PIT/DET game to where I’ll choose to avoid mentioning any Pirates/Tigers players in this newsletter.

Update: PIT/DET has been postponed!

CWS @ CHC (7:40 ET, 6.5 O/U): Lingering light rain could impact the early portion of this game but tapers off late. They could just play through it or opt for a late start. A postponement seems unlikely at this time. Assuming they play, 20 mph winds are blowing IN from left and it will also be the coldest game of the day with temps in the mid-40s. Significant bump for pitchers -- the slate-low 6.5 run O/U reflects that as well.

WAS @ COL (8:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): Light rain in the Colorado area most of the night with coverage increasing a bit during the late portion of this game. It’s possible nothing ever makes its way over the ballpark but even if it does, they can probably just play through it. 

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), SF | DK: $10k, FD: $11.1k | @ LAD

Four starts and 23.0 IP into his 2022 campaign and Carlos Rodon is already a front-runner for the NL Cy Young alongside Max Scherzer and Corbin Burnes. Rodon has dominated in all four of his starts where he has allowed no more than a single earned run, no more than three hits, and has recorded at least eight strikeouts in each outing.

Naturally, all of his key stats are phenomenal right now -- 1.17 ERA, 2.19 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, 43.2% kRate (!!), 15.9% SwStr%, .139 opp AVG, .202 opp wOBA. If there is one knock you can point out, it would be the slightly high 9.1% Walk Rate, but that’s about it. Rodon draws the match-up with the Dodgers today, so expect the majority of the field to look for pitchers with better match-ups if they’re spending up at the position. But make no mistake, even with arguably the most talented lineup of hitters in baseball at their disposal, the Dodgers have not fully hit their stride just yet, especially when faced against a lefty. In 202 PA against LHPs this season, the Dodgers are a pretty average, perhaps even slightly below average, offense. They have posted a .223 AVG (ranks 18th), .289 wOBA (19th), .125 ISO (18th), and 90 wRC+ (19th) while striking out 24% of the time (12th highest). If we’re looking at their most recent games, they have posted just a 75 wRC+ over the last week, ranking them 26th in the MLB. Sure, they can still start living up to expectations at any point, but this seems like a nice time to get Rodon at lower ownership since folks will automatically go away from rostering any pitcher facing the Dodgers.

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. CIN

A lot of eyeballs will be on a priced-down Brandon Woodruff today, deservedly so. Yes, he has had two poor outings but he pitched very well in his other two starts. Woodruff has historically pitched better at home, which is where he will be today. It’s not a major surprise to see that both of his “good” games this season came when he took the mound at home. In those two games, he pitched 11 scoreless innings and allowed just four hits (.114 AVG) while striking out 11 batters (27.5% kRate). Last season, Woodruff had a remarkable 2.67 xFIP when pitching at home to go along with a 30.8% kRate. He draws a terrific match-up with the Reds today -- a team that managed to score just eight combined runs in their recent three-game Coors Field series. Against RHPs, the Reds are hitting a measly .202 with a .272 wOBA and 71 wRC+ while striking out 23.9% of the time. Woodruff had a rough spring training where he accumulated a 10.80 ERA across his 11.2 IP but perhaps he’s shaken enough rust off and is ready to return to some more consistent form that we have seen out of him in recent seasons. He’s particularly hard to ignore at his sub-$9k price tag on DraftKings. The Brewers are, by far, the heaviest favorites on this slate while the Reds hold only a 3.1 implied team total.

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.6k | vs. SEA

When trawling through the depths of the lower-end pitcher price range, I’m always looking for guys to possess one-of-three qualities: someone with high strikeout potential, someone with 90-100 pitch count potential who can eat up innings, or someone with a terrific match-up. The expensive pitchers are always going to meet two or three of those criteria. In Javier’s case, his primary draw stems from raw strikeout upside. He’s mostly been used out of the bullpen during his fairly young MLB career (appeared in 52 games with 20 starts, 169.0 IP) but the Astros have been stretching Javier out as a starter. He drew his first start of the 2022 season last Wednesday against Texas and covered five frames while throwing 84 pitches. So, if he continues to be stretched out, he could certainly be a guy who can get into that 90-100 pitch count range, which he has done in some of his previous MLB starts. In four appearances and 13.1 IP this season, Javier has racked up a strong 31.4% kRate and 12.3% SwStr%, numbers which are on par with his career 29% kRate and 11.7% SwStr%. He’s also posting a 1.35 ERA, 3.36 xFIP, and 0.90 WHIP. Javier does allow a lot of fly balls -- 55.2% FB% this season, 50.4% FB% for his career. So, that can clearly increase the risk of home runs allowed. But he has been particularly sharp when pitching at home in his career where he has a 2.64 ERA, .174 opp AVG, and 1.07 WHIP. He’ll face a crafty Mariners offense today that has been a top 10 offense vs. RHPs this season with their 116 wRC+ (ranks 7th). The Mariners also don’t strikeout a ton with a 21.7% kRate split. But as long as Javier keeps the ball inside the park, he should still be able to rack up a decent number of Ks and will have a strong chance to qualify for the win as well (HOU -150 favorites). He’s a bit risky, for sure, but he’s also just a tad too cheap now that he’s filling in a traditional starting role.

Also Consider:

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.2k | @ BAL

Julio Urias (LHP), LAD | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.4k | vs. SF

*Bruce Zimmermann (LHP), BAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $9.5k | vs. MIN

*DraftKings Preferred

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks:

Colorado Rockies vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

Washington Nationals vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Other Stacks to Consider:

Los Angeles Angels vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

Even with the dead ball in play, the Angels have been able to produce some actual offense this season which most teams cannot say. They’ve been particularly good on the road where they are averaging 5.09 runs/gm and lead the MLB with a 131 wRC+. Michael Wacha is still maintaining a low 1.77 ERA and .277 opp wOBA through his four starts (20.1 IP) but he is still pitching above his head. His 3.95 xFIP and .313 xwOBA are clear indicators that some regression will hit him sooner or later. Wacha is also getting hit hard regularly with a 38.9% HardHit% and 91.2 mph average exit velocity. Behind Wacha will be an unspectacular Red Sox bullpen whose 3.98 xFIP is the 7th highest in the MLB -- over the last week they have posted a league-worst 5.41 xFIP.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Brandon Marsh | Sneaky Bat: Shohei Ohtani (he’ll go under-owned due to his high price, recent lack of consistent production, and Coors Field bats taking priority -- also he was held out of yesterday’s lineup due to groin tightness but will be DH’ing today)

Houston Astros vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

It may not be completely apparent just based on the recent number of runs they’ve scored, but the Houston offense is trending in the right direction. Jose Altuve is back from his hamstring injury, Kyle Tucker has broken out of his early-season slump, Yordan Alvarez just rakes, rookie Jeremy Pena is showing great power with his 5 HRs and .253 ISO, guys like Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel can always pop off, and Michael Brantley continues to be a solid .300-ish hitter. Chris Flexen has been fairly solid this season but there is nothing special about his 4.20 xFIP and .370 xwOBA. He’s also allowing a high 46.7% HardContact% and 91.6 mph average exit velocity. The Astros just saw Flexen a couple of weeks ago and while they didn’t do a ton of damage, they still put up some hits and runs against him. In 65 PA against the Astros lineup, he’s allowing a .311 AVG and .338 wOBA with only a 12.3% kRate. Seattle’s bullpen has been struggling a bit more as of late as well so, in general, Houston looks to be in one of the better non-Coors Field spots today.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman | Sneaky Bat: Jeremy Pena 

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), CIN

Mahle is pitching better than his 6.45 ERA would indicate (3.98 xFIP, 3.99 SIERA), he’s just getting really unlucky with the .388 BABIP against him. That being said, some Brewers bats may be worth a look today. A big draw for the Brewers bats comes from the innings they’ll see against a Cincinnati bullpen that has to be the worst or one of the worst relief units in the MLB. On the season, they have accumulated a 4.64 xFIP (2nd worst) and 1.42 WHIP (3rd worst), Over the last week, those numbers have climbed to a 5.10 xFIP and 1.55 WHIP. Against Mahle, there is an argument to be made in favor of the Brewers lefty hitters. Against LHBs this season, Mahle holds an 8.18 ERA, 5.48 xFIP, 1.82 WHIP, and .362 wOBA.

Favorite MIL Bats: Rowdy Tellez, Willy Adames, Kolten Wong | Sneaky Bat: Christian Yelich (simply hasn’t been great against RHPs yet this season)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

OF George Springer | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

SS Tim Anderson | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Scott Effross (RHP), CHC

OF Juan Soto | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Tyler Machle (RHP), CIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

2B Cesar Hernandez | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

2B/SS Brendan Rodgers | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

3B/SS Bobby Witt Jr. | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

OF Yadiel Hernandez | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

2B/3B/SS Jack Mayfield | DL: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

OF Edward Olivares | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

OF/2B Chad Pinder | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), TB

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

Even on a monster slate like this one, home runs are going to continue to be difficult to come by. I’ll take the easy route today by going out to Coors Field and CJ Cron is going to be the usual suspect. At home this season, Cron is hitting .340 with a .488 wOBA, .420 ISO, 195 wRC+, 44.7% HardContact%, and six home runs. Just massive numbers. Across his career, Erick Fedde has a 2.23 HR/9 Rate and 24.4% HR/FB Rate when pitching against RHBs on the road. Cron will have a nice opportunity to crush out his ninth home run of the year tonight.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Cristian Javier OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | +106 | 2.0 Units

Javier’s game centers heavily around strikeouts and now that he is being stretched out as a traditional starter and should throw upwards of 90 pitches, I’m loving his chances of recording at least six Ks tonight. In his four appearances this season, he has recorded 3 Ks (@ LAA, 1.2 IP, 28 pitches), 5 Ks (@ ARI, 3.0 IP, 53 pitches), 4 Ks (vs. LAA, 3.2 IP, 55 pitches), and 4 Ks (@ TEX, 5.0 IP, 84 pitches). Worth noting: the Rangers have the fourth-lowest kRate vs. RHPs this season so that could explain his lower K total in that game despite hitting an 84 pitch count. The Mariners are not a heavy strikeout team (21.7% kRate vs. RHPs) but that jumps up to a 23.9% kRate against RHPs on the road. Javier typically pitches better at home and should be able to record six or seven Ks tonight.

CJ Cron OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -118 | 2.0 Units

Cron has hit this prop in five of his last six games. The fact that Cron is hitting .340 with a monstrous .488 wOBA and .420 ISO at home this season should lead to him earning multiple bases once again tonight. Erick Fedde has shown some struggles against RHBs on the road throughout his career. Cron is my home run call of the day as well so if I have confidence in him to go yard, I’ll double down and take a wager on him to hit for multiple bases as well.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!