Top MLB DFS Plays 5/3 | A Month of Baseball in the Books!

May 03, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

Invest in LineStar! We quickly blew past $500K raised from fans that want to share in the future growth of Sports Gambling Tech at Fantasy Sports Co. Learn More @ SeedInvest.com/Fantasy.Sports

The 2021 MLB season officially hit the one month mark over the weekend. Now that we have a smidge over four week’s worth of data in the books, I do believe we can begin to put a bit more faith in the current numbers. By now, most routine starting hitters have around 100 or so plate appearances recorded on the season, and the majority of starting pitchers have a handful of starts and roughly 30.0 innings pitched.

It’s generally around this point where I feel a bit more comfortable upping my personal daily spend on MLB DFS due to the current sample sizes being a bit more reliable and trustworthy. Of course, not everyone has to follow suit and for me, it’s not a drastic nor immediate leap. But I am inching more towards a 7-10% daily bankroll allocation as opposed to the 4-6% that I’ve been running for most slates up to this point. To each their own! If you like how things are working for ya right now, by all means, stick to your process -- especially if you could not care less about the statistical side of baseball and how it pertains to MLB DFS and instead focus more on game theory. Anyhow, we have a busy 10-game slate on tap for this Monday evening so let’s get down to business!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

There are some games that we’ll absolutely need to keep an eye on leading up to first pitch.

MIL @ PHI: Fairly significant chance of rain throughout this game. Some sort of delay seems possible, almost likely, and with the worst of the rain coming later in the evening, a late start would up the risk of a total PPD big time. It’s possible they get this game in, but as of now, it carries some definite risk. Fortunately, it is the first game of the slate (first pitch @ 7:05 ET), so we should know their intentions well ahead of time.

LAD @ CHC: Another risky spot with a line of storms rolling in around the time of the scheduled first pitch (7:40 ET). If there is a delay here, it could be a lengthy one. Long enough to where they may just cut their losses and postpone to tomorrow or another day. This one and the aforementioned MIL @ PHI game will be the two primary weather issues to track closer to lock.

TEX @ MIN: Winds blowing OUT to right at 15 mph. Temps are still relatively cool -- around 55 to 60 degrees -- but this game still gives a bit of a boost to the bats.

NYM @ STL: Scattered storms in the area. It’s possible they see a delay, which makes the SPs a bit riskier, but they should get nine innings in here so the bats should be fine.

CLE @ KC: Winds blowing IN at 10-15 mph. Slight bump to pitchers.

SF @ COL: Wet all day in the Denver area and the cold/wet conditions may bleed over into this evening. I wouldn’t expect a PPD right now, but it’s definitely not off the table. This won’t be ideal baseball weather.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Aaron Civale (RHP) | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.5k | @ KC

If you’re spending up at pitcher and want more strikeout upside, you probably roll with Glasnow or Buehler. Civale’s 20.5% kRate this season isn’t astounding by any means but he has definitely been more of an “innings eater”. Across his five starts on the year, he has pitched between 6.0 and 7.2 innings in four of them while throwing no less than 90 pitches. He’s also producing a 52.8% Ground Ball Rate & 16.9% Line Drive Rate which is helping him go further into games. The Royals are a sneaky good offense and land just inside the top 10 of many offensive metrics when facing an RHP. But if Civale keeps forcing a ton of ground balls he should find some success tonight. Those 10-15 mph winds blowing in will also help knock down any fly balls he does let up.

Kenta Maeda (RHP) | DK: $7.8k, FD: $6.9k | vs. TEX

Maeda’s momentum from the 2020 season hasn’t exactly translated over to this year but his DFS salaries are really starting to take a dip and he still profiles as a very capable pitcher. The Rangers have not been slouches by any means and their 109 wRC+ vs. RHPs ranks 8th in the league, their .319 wOBA ranks 7th. The upside here for Maeda is the strikeout potential as the Rangers strike out the most out of any team in baseball against righties (30.1% kRate). Maeda’s kRate is down to a paltry 17.9% this season, a far cry from his career 26.6% kRate. But he hasn’t lost any significant velocity on his fastball and he is still producing a strong 13.6% Swinging Strike Rate. Normally, a pitcher’s SwStr% can typically be doubled to roughly reflect their overall kRate so I do believe we’ll start to see Maeda’s strikeouts climb. He has also been getting really unlucky with a .372 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) against him (compared to a career .278 BABIP). I don’t love those 15 mph winds blowing out in Minnesota today, but for these salaries, it’s hard not to want to take a chance on Maeda.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP) | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.9k | vs. TB

Ohtani is more appealing on DK where he is listed as the 9th most expensive arm on the slate (5th most expensive on FD). He brings some risk to the table as he is dealing with elbow soreness after getting hit by a 93 mph fastball on his right throwing arm yesterday. If he is good to go and won’t have any (or at least minimal) pitch limitations, then he is squarely in play today despite facing off with an above average Rays offense. Shohei is averaging a blistering 97.1 mph on his fastball this season while producing an elite 37.1% kRate and .128 opponent batting average. He hasn’t thrown more than 80 pitches in either of his previous two starts, but with the K upside, he doesn’t need to throw a ton of pitches to hit value here. Considering his counterpart is an ace-level pitcher in Tyler Glasnow, Vegas is giving plenty of respect to Ohtani (and the Angels offense) by essentially setting the odds on this game as a near pick ‘em.

UPDATE: Ohtani has been scratched. I'll throw out RHP Adam Wainwright (DK: $8k, FD: $7.2k) as being an additional pitcher to consider today facing off against the Mets.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Top Stacks: It’s not without some weather concerns but ya gotta assume that the Coors Field match-up between the Rockies and Giants will draw its usual attention. Behind those teams, the Dodgers may draw some attraction as well after plating 16 runs yesterday and will now get to face off with Kyle Hendricks, who has been highly erratic at times this season.

Minnesota Twins vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins turn out to be a bit chalky as well but I’m loving this spot for ‘em. Dunning has pitched well at times this season but he is allowing a lofty 47.8% Hard Contact Rate and will have to try to get past a load of power hitters who reside in the heart of the Twins order. As a reminder, this game also features some pretty stiff 15 mph winds blowing out to right field. Behind Dunning will be a Rangers bullpen that has been quite solid this season but their 1.34 HR/9 Rate is the 9th highest in the MLB and they’re giving up a decent amount of hard contact as well. Also, how about the Kirilloff fella? Look for him to be a popular one-off punt today.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK

If we’re chasing an offense that swinging some hot bats, then we should probably look at some Blue Jays. Over the last two weeks, Toronto has a league-leading 120 wRC+ along with a stout .339 wOBA and .204 ISO. They’ll face off with Frankie Montas who definitely hasn’t brought his best stuff to the mound this season. He’s rocking a 6.20 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, and is allowing a .372 wOBA. Hitters have also posted a 10.5% Barrel Rate against him, which is the highest figure on the slate behind Kyle Hendricks (11.1%). Montas has shown some poor reverse splits this season so I wouldn’t necessarily count Toronto’s righty-heavy lineup as a negative against them.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miguel Diaz (RHP), SD

With the Padres starting pitcher rotation a bit banged up, they’ll be giving a spot start to Miguel Diaz who hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch since 2019. Across his career 66.2 IP, Diaz holds a very poor 5.24 xFIP and 1.61 WHIP while allowing 1.89 HR/9. I doubt we see Diaz pitch more than three or four innings, so the Padres will be deploying mostly bullpen arms tonight. San Diego boasts one of the best bullpens in baseball and they’re a primary reason why Pittsburgh is only carrying a 3.5 implied run total today. The Pirates are also obviously not a good offense (which is why they’re in this section) but they have managed to score at least five runs in four of their last seven games, If they accomplish that again tonight and you land on the correct three or four pieces, you will certainly have them at extremely low ownership.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams mentioned above in the stack section:

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), PIT

You know the deal. It’s Tatis, so he’s always in play, but especially on days when he gets to square up against a lefty. Tatis has a career .333 AVG against LHPs along with a .440 wOBA, .294 ISO, 178 wRC+, and 46.9% HardHit%. He has also produced a massive 75% HardHit% over the last two weeks.

C/1B Buster Posey | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Unless he gets another day off to rest up, we should expect to see Posey in the lineup tonight. He’s been absolutely raking lately and over the last two weeks, he leads the league with a 290 wRC+ and boasts a 1.114 wOBA+ISO in that span. That 290 wRC+ basically signifies that he has been providing as much offensive value as three average MLB hitters COMBINED. He has solid BvP history against Marquez and gets the obvious Coors Field bump.

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

Haniger is often one of my favorite one-off targets to roster as he has been perpetually underpriced all season while being one of the most productive lead-off hitters in the league. He possesses a strong .369 wOBA, .278 ISO, and 141 wRC+ and has smashed seven homers already this year behind a great 44.0% HardHit%. Kremer is one of the more appealing pitchers to attack today as well and has been prone to giving up the long ball this season (2.40 HR/9).

OF AJ Pollock | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

Maybe this feels a bit ‘point chase-y’ following his double dinger eight RBI day, but so be it. Pollock has been coming through plenty over the last couple of weeks before that insane game and possesses some super affordable DFS salaries. He will get to face off with Kyle Hendricks, who has been giving up homers left and right this season. Pollock’s 95.1 mph average exit velocity over the last two weeks puts him in the 95th percentile as well.

OF Mike Tauchman | DK: $2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

I try not to mentioned multiple hitters on the same team in this section but Tauchman can’t be ignored. He’s basically free on both sites, brings power to the plate, should be batting near the top of the order, and gets the Coors Field boost. I know he hasn’t played much this season but no way he should be this cheap.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

Ya can’t say enough about how much Buxton has dominated through the first month of the season. He leads all of baseball with a .539 wOBA, .434 ISO, and 261 wRC+ while producing nearly a 50% HardHit%. As mentioned above, Dunning gives up a ton of hard contact himself and will have to deal with hitters getting 15 mph winds blowing out to right field. He will eat up a good chunk of salary, but his upside is off the charts and I'm gonna say the Bux DOESN'T stop here -- he goes yard in this game… maybe a couple of times? A man can dream.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

Let us know if you enjoyed this issue of the Daily Ledger by leaving a 👍 or 👎 at the bottom of the page!

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.