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Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 5/3 "On Deck" Podcast feat. Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Quickly, after a one day hiatus, we are back to a regularly scheduled main slate start time. In the future, we’ll look to get newsletters out for early starting main slates either the night before or early the next morning. Fridays typically bring us a beefy slate and that is once again the case with these 13 games that are set to kick off your weekend! There are several quality arms to choose from, headlined by Kershaw, Paxton, Sale, and Glasnow -- and some teams are in great hitting environments out in Coors Field, Globe Life Park, and Miller Park, to name a few. With so many routes to take, I believe this is an ideal slate to formulate a few unique game plans of your own in order to test out some MME (mass multi-entry) strategy!

Here are today’s match-ups and Vegas totals/lines:

TOR @ TEX: This may be our biggest concern to keep an eye on. There are thunderstorms projected to move through the area this evening and they mostly seem to be of the unpredictable pop-up variety. Really we’ll just have to wait for a more precise forecast but for now, I’ll assume it plays, though there is a strong chance of a delay.

OAK @ PIT: There are showers and thunderstorms throughout the day leading into the scheduled game time but it seems things will clear up right around then. For now, a delay seems pretty possible but looking at the current forecast, it seems they should get this game in.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Clayton Kershaw (DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.3k) | LHP | LAD @ SD

Late night hammer, anyone? When there’s only one late West Coast game on a slate, I know I can’t be the only one who feels better having a piece of it. Not to the point where I would force anyone into a lineup, which absolutely would not be the case here with Kershaw. He’s looked as close to ‘vintage’ Kershaw as I think we should expect at this point and in his most recent start he saw his pitch count climb to triple digits against Pittsburgh (7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 8 K on 101 pitches). There should be no sort of restrictions on him as he makes his fourth start which comes against San Diego in Petco Park, a pitcher’s paradise. The Padres’ lineup is stacked full of righties and as a team against LHP they have a 46.2% Hard Contact Rate (2nd in MLB), as well as a .199 ISO (11th in MLB). But as I mentioned with fellow lefty Max Fried when he faced the Padres a couple of days ago (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 29.4 DKFP), San Diego may get ahold of a pitch or two and send one deep, but otherwise, they boast a paltry .204 AVG and 26.8% kRate. Kershaw is forcing a 59.6% GB Rate, so he’s not letting many guys get under his pitches to begin with and he’s rocking a 0.75 WHIP with a 3.04 SIERA. We could see his first double digit strikeout performance of the season in this spot. The Dodgers are -160 favorites with the Padres having a 3.1 implied run total.

Sonny Gray (DK: $8.2k, FD: $8k) | RHP | CIN vs. SF

In the mid-range, it’s definitely tempting to consider Gausman who faces Miami in Marlins Park, but Gray has been pitching far more consistently and gets about an equally as great match-up against another terrible offense. Gray has strung five consecutive strong starts in a row and his last three starts have all come against top 10 offenses where he held his own: the Cardinals (4th), Dodgers (5th), and Braves (9th). Now he will face the Giants, who are 29th in offense and are scoring just 3.16 runs/game. While they may not strike out a ton versus righties (23% kRate), they just don’t really get many runners on base, as their .275 OBP is the worst in baseball. They also only have a .211 AVG, .273 wOBA, .146 ISO, and 70 wRC+. Wimpy, wimpy, wimpy! Speaking for Gray, he has improved virtually all of his career averages this season. He has a 30.3% kRate, .191 AVG, 3.64 ERA, 3.12 SIERA, 0.98 WHIP, and is forcing a 54.8% GB Rate while giving up just one home run across 29.2 innings. Is he pitching over his head? Perhaps a bit, yes. But his SIERA being over half a run lower than his ERA indicates that he has actually been a bit better of a pitcher than what some of the numbers show. And if he is due for regression, are the Giants really going to be the team that causes it? Doesn’t seem likely. If his slumping offensive teammates can give him some run support, he may find his way to his first win of the season. The Reds are -155 favorites while the Giants hold a 3.9 implied run total.

Yusei Kikuchi (DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.5k) | LHP | SEA @ CLE

Kikuchi is absolutely a contrarian pick but I wouldn’t mention him without reasoning. In Kikuchi’s last start against the Rangers, the Mariners let Kikuchi pitch just one inning (hey, two K's though!) before pulling him by design. Seattle wants to ease their newly acquired Japanese southpaw into a Major League rotation by giving him some incremental rest after every few starts. So, with just one inning of work in the last 13 days, Kikuchi will look to resume a normal workload fully rested in his start against Cleveland tonight. The Indians will likely have four lefties in their lineup, which bodes well for Kikuchi’s chances at success. While it may be a small sample size (6.2 innings, 24 batters faced), in lefty on lefty match-ups, he has allowed just a .208 AVG, .211 wOBA, 0.75 WHIP, 25% kRate, and 2.43 xFIP. Cleveland clearly benefits from getting their best offensive player, Francisco Lindor, back into the order a couple weeks ago. But this is still a team that is hitting lefties at a rate of a .219 AVG, .273 wOBA, .094 ISO, and 65 wRC+ with a 28.1% kRate. If he can limit the damage done by the Cleveland righties, he should be able to work through the lefty bats and tack on perhaps seven strikeouts in six innings of work (as a somewhat bold estimate). Maybe we see his best outing to date. His floor is obviously low but I could see a potential ceiling of around 20 DKFP/30 FDFP and a few more with a win/quality start bonus.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field & Globe Life Park Notice: ARI @ COL (11 O/U) and TOR @ TEX (9.5 O/U) are pretty straightforward spots to attack when stacking hitters so I will skip those teams.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Dan Strally (RHP - Baltimore Orioles)

Ownership Projection: Medium/High

The Rays get to face off against perhaps the worst starting pitcher on the slate as well as possibly the worst bullpen in baseball. Strally is off to a terrible start and has already given up seven home runs in just 18.2 innings (an absurd 3.38 HR/9 rate) to go along with a 6.75 ERA, 6.37 SIERA, 10.3% kRate, 1.66 WHIP and he has a lowly 28.2% Ground Ball Rate. After Strally gets taken off the mound, enter the Orioles bullpen which has a 6.27 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 2.27 HR/9 rate -- worst in the league in all three categories. If Tampa Bay brings the spaghetti and marinara, I’m sure the Orioles will be prepared to serve up a few meatballs. The Rays batting order has been pretty erratic but if Brandon Lowe (.416 wOBA, .304 ISO vs. RHP) is batting lead-off, I’ll start with him. After that, I’d expect Yandy Diaz (.377 wOBA, .264 ISO) and Avisail Garcia (.330 wOBA, .192 ISO) to end up near the top of the order as well.

Boston Red Sox vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP - Chicago White Sox)

Ownership Projection: Low/Medium

So this all depends on which 2019 Reynaldo Lopez you’re buying into.

First three starts: 13.1 IP, 12.15 ERA, .367 AVG, .497 wOBA, 6 HRs, 2.55 WHIP, 16.2% kRate

Last three starts: 18 IP, 1.50 ERA, .215 AVG, .271 wOBA, 1 HR, 1.06 WHIP, 38.6% kRate

Maybe buy into a mix of both? Regardless, this isn’t a Detroit Tigers team that Lopez will get to pick on like he has in his previous two starts. The Red Sox limit their strikeouts to RHPs to a 20.6% kRate (7th lowest) and their offense is looking to gain momentum after posting at least seven runs in four of their last eight games. I like pairing a couple of the lefties at the top: Andrew Benintendi (.358 wOBA, .193 ISO vs RHP) and Rafael Devers (.339 wOBA, .378 OBP) along with the always reliable righty Mookie Betts (.456 wOBA, .292 ISO vs RHP) who has hit all six of his home runs off of right-handed pitchers this season. If you need a really cheap hitter, I do think Jackie Bradley Jr. knocks out his first homer of the season soon. Maybe not today, but soon.

Atlanta Braves vs. Jose Urena (RHP - Miami Marlins)

Ownership Projection: Low

When a good offense is playing in Marlins Park, it’s never a bad idea to consider them in a stack strategy since most people will write off any offense for the sole reason that they’re playing in Miami. While you’re never going to see a ton of home runs here, Marlins Park actually has the 5th highest adjusted hit factor and 9th highest adjusted runs scored factor this season. I’m sure those numbers regress as the season goes on but it’s just worth noting that offenses aren’t exactly allergic to this park. Also, are we really scared of attacking Jose Urena? In 33.1 innings this season, he has allowed a .307 AVG, .366 wOBA, 1.54 WHIP to go with a 16.7% kRate, 5.08 ERA, and 4.50 SIERA. He pretty much relies heavily on ground ball outs with his 49.1% GB Rate. I like the lefty duo of Freddie Freeman (.409 wOBA, .197 ISO, .426 OBP) and Nick Markakis (.383 wOBA, .403 OBP). Josh Donaldson (.401 wOBA, .286 ISO) is expected back in the lineup today and has been hitting righties much better than lefties this year. All five of his home runs have come against RHPs.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Shin-soo Choo (DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k) | OF | TEX vs. TOR

Choo has been turning it on in the last month after batting for a .350 AVG, .455 wOBA, and .264 ISO with a .449 OBP. He’s belted three home runs in his last five games and now sits in a tie for 9th in the MLB with 17 XBH. Trent Thornton may be ill-equipped to handle these Ranger lefties tonight. Against LHBs, Thornton has allowed a .392 wOBA and .345 ISO on 44.7% Hard Contact. Of the five home runs he’s given up, four have been at the hands of lefties. Choo is discounted a bit when compared to these other big hitters in the power parks but he still offers a solid floor and strong ceiling.

Nick Ahmed (DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k) | SS | ARI @ COL

Ahmed isn’t ultra cheap but he’s still pretty affordable for a Coors bat. He draws a righty on lefty match-up tonight, which is how he has gotten most of his production this year. Against LHPs this season, he has extremely strong splits: .424 AVG, .446 wOBA, .242 ISO, 1.078 OPS. Sure, these are early season sample sizes but it’s also a clear trend in his career that he has extreme splits in favor of facing LHP. Tyler Anderson is in danger of getting shellacked tonight but hopefully Ahmed gets at least a couple ABs against him before he’s relieved.

Drew Butera (DK: $3.2k, $2.5k) | C | COL vs. ARI

Another Coors bat? Okay, why not?! Butera is about as cheap of a piece of this game as you would ever find and, considering lefty Robbie Ray is on the hill for Arizona tonight, Butera should get the nod at catcher over lefty teammate Tony Wolters. Butera isn’t some offensive force to be reckoned with. He’s about a .200 career average hitter with 19 HRs to his name in 506 games. He’s just purely an affordable platoon play since Robbie Ray allowed a .344 wOBA, .174 ISO and 1.47 HR/9 on 46.4% Hard Contact to RHBs in 2018. His numbers are far stiffer against his fellow lefties.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to give the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney a listen! You can find it linked at the top of this newsletter.

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