Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 5/29 "On Deck" Podcast feat. Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

A nice, mid-sized nine game slate awaits us this Wednesday evening. For those of you who dabbled in the four game early slate, I hope you had good fortune! Snellzilla headlines the pitching landscape tonight and he finds himself in a very positive match-up against a sputtering Blue Jays team. He’s definitely a tough fade given the state of pitchers so far in the 2019 season but paying up for bats is a major temptation today as well. Not only is it another ‘Coors slate’ but there are three additional games that feature double digit totals. It’s gonna be a tricky one and weather will once again keep us scrambling today, so let’s get right to it.

Today’s match-ups with game totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

STL @ PHI: Rain moves in through Philly for a second consecutive day -- primarily around the 2-3 hour window when this game is scheduled to be played. Storms should taper off late, so a lengthy “delay and play” would seem to be the most likely scenario. Pitchers would seem riskier if they try to start the game on time. We absolutely need to watch this one as the day progresses, but for now, I’m not fading.

DET @ BAL: Some sort of delay, whether it be pre-game or in-game, seems fairly likely here. It’s expected they can get the game in. Pitchers carry more risk here at the moment but bats should be fine. It’ll be warm in Baltimore as well.

ARI @ COL: Rain chances could increase late but they played through some late-inning rain last night and Colorado usually does whatever they can to get the games in barring brutal conditions.

WAS @ ATL: Hot, hot, hot! Around 90 degrees throughout. In similar conditions last night we “only” saw a pair of home runs (and nine total runs) but the quality of starting pitchers is significantly lower this evening.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Walker Buehler (DK: $9.6k, FD: $11k) | RHP | LAD vs. NYM

As I stated in the intro, you probably don’t want to full-on fade Blake Snell tonight. But Buehler *should* have a comparable floor in this home match-up with the Mets -- perhaps just not quite as much upside. Dropping down from Snell to Buehler as a high-dollar pitcher will give you $1,700 in savings on DraftKings but only $800 on FanDuel, so I’d see no issues if you just want to rock the top option of the night over there. Buehler got off to a bit of a shaky start to the season but in his last five games (31.1 IP) he has steadied the ship with a 2.30 ERA, 2.88 xFIP, 27.6% kRate, 0.96 WHIP, and has walked just three batters in this span. The Mets, and their righty-heavy lineup, have been awful on the road against RHPs lately. In the last month when traveling and facing a right-hander (366 plate appearances) they have a .212 AVG, .277 wOBA, and 69 wRC+ with a 23.8% kRate. Those offensive numbers trail only Washington for dead last in the league over that time. The Dodgers are big -190 home favorites and the Mets have only a 3.3 implied run total. Around 25 DKFP/45 FDFP is a very reasonable expectation from Buehler this evening.

Pablo Lopez (DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.6k) | RHP | MIA vs. SF

Dropping down quite a bit here because many of the mid-range options are either in tricky spots or seem a bit overpriced. Meanwhile, Pablo Lopez has exhibited incredibly strong numbers at home this season and he quite possibly has the most extreme home/road splits of any starting pitcher in the league thus far. I will list his home/road numbers below:

Home: 23.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, .200 wOBA, 0.77 WHIP, 29.9% kRate

Away: 28.1 IP, 8.26 ERA, 4.48 xFIP, .381 wOBA, 1.62 WHIP, 18.2% kRate

These extreme splits are unsustainably distant but in a match-up with the Giants, who have been a bottom three offense against RHPs all season, you wouldn’t expect Lopez to struggle very much when he takes the hill in Marlins Park. Lopez will likely be the most popular salary saving pitching option tonight, so I can understand the approach of going underweight on him in GPPs in case the Giants find some batting prowess. But I’ve watched more Giants games lately than I’d like to admit and I just don’t really see Lopez getting into too much trouble.

Glenn Sparkman (DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.6k) | RHP | KC @ CWS

No offense to Mr. Sparkman if he sees this, but have you ever heard of the expression “throw crap at the wall and hope something sticks”? This suggested play is the embodiment of that phrase. Sparkman will grab the spot start tonight for the Royals and has pitched fairly well thru 24.2 innings this season, though mostly out of the bullpen. He has a 2.92 ERA, 4.67 SIERA, .265 AVG, 1.34 WHIP, and 16% kRate. No one is writing down Sparkman’s name on their early season Cy Young watchlists but he has… adequate numbers. His only other start this season came against the Rays when he tossed seven three-hit shutout innings with six strikeouts across 86 pitches while garnering a win. Good enough for 29.4 DKFP/49 FDFP. Obviously that is insane value to expect him to reproduce but, on paper, the White Sox are a much easier match-up than the Rays. Over the last month against RHPs they have posted bottom five numbers with a team .279 wOBA, .124 ISO, and 74 wRC+ while leading the league with a 28.5% kRate. Sparkman just threw 68 pitches out of the bullpen on Saturday, so there’s no telling what sort of pitch restriction he may be on but, if he can work through around five innings, the potential value to be had is very strong. No complaining if he gets throttled, though. This is a guy named Glenn Sparkman we’re talking about after all.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field Notice: Arizona (5.8 implied runs) and Colorado (5.2 implied runs) are, by default, two top candidates to stack.

Atlanta Braves vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP | WAS)

Expected Ownership: Medium

With 90 degree temperatures providing a nice hitters environment down in Atlanta, it makes plenty of sense to attack Anibal Sanchez who will be pitching fresh off of the 10-day IL. Sanchez is 0-6 this season and is sporting an ugly 5.29 SIERA and 26.9% LD%. On the road, he has a 1.84 WHIP while allowing a .364 wOBA to hitters. Once Sanchez is retired on the mound, the Nationals bullpen comes into play. Over the last month, they have a league-worst 1.72 WHIP, 7.65 ERA, and 1.91 HR/9 Rate while allowing a .294 opponent batting average. Atlanta has a trio of guys who have produced nicely over the last month: the quickly emerging star Austin Riley (.469 wOBA, .385 ISO), established powerhouse Freddie Freeman (.411 wOBA, .310 ISO), and the fairly steady Josh Donaldson (.359 wOBA, .154 ISO).

Houston Astros vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP | CHC)

Expected Ownership: Medium/Low

You would rarely expect the Astros bats to go overlooked but they have been flying under the radar recently, especially with guys like Springer, Altuve, and Correa on the mend. Kyle Hendricks is a talented enough pitcher to make people stay away from them once again but we know the Astros are capable of scoring against anyone, even with a more rag-tag lineup that they’ll roll out tonight. If you dig into Hendricks’ home/road splits, you’ll notice that he’s been flat-out bad away from Wrigley Field. In 27 IP on the road this season he has a 6.00 ERA, 4.85 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, with a 16.7% kRate. He’s also allowing home field batters a .319 AVG, .367 wOBA, and 42.1% Hard Contact. Strong consideration should be given to Alex Bregman (.424 wOBA, .321 ISO vs. RHP), Michael Brantley (.399 wOBA, .243 ISO vs. RHP), and Robinson Chirinos (.367 wOBA, .239 ISO vs. RHP) among others.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP | NYM)

Expected Ownership: Low

It makes sense to label this as a major “prove it” game for Noah Syndergaard, as his ace status is in danger of getting revoked… or maybe it already has. I think anyone who has played MLB DFS fairly consistently this season has been burned by Thor on at least one or two occasions. Rostering some Dodgers, who have been the third most prolific MLB offense, could be a way to get a little personal revenge against him. Syndergaard’s numbers are obviously way down this season but he’s been really mediocre on the road with a 5.11 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP, and 22.3% kRate. He’s also allowing opponents to hit for a .292 AVG and .340 wOBA. Guys who are fourth or fifth in their respective team rotations put up better statistics than those. If you’ve got the coin, you obviously have to consider Cody Bellinger (.516 wOBA, .403 ISO). Aside from him, I’d look to the righty crusher Joc Pederson (.441 wOBA, .417 ISO) and the often productive Justin Turner (.384 wOBA, .435 OBP).

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Renato Nunez 💣💥 (DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k) | 1B | vs. Ryan Carpenter (LHP)

Joe and Chris aced their Paul Goldschmidt and Eddie Rosario home run calls yesterday while Anthony Rendon left me in the dust (he got walked three times, what can ya do). Today, I’ll look for Nunez to go yard, as he has posted a ludicrous .714 ISO (and .535 wOBA) versus southpaws over the last two weeks and has mashed five home runs against those lefties in just 24 plate appearances. His 97.4 mph average exit velocity vs. LHP in that time ranks third among all hitters today. Ryan Carpenter has allowed a career .413 wOBA and .306 ISO to RHBs. He’s a gas can waiting to be lit. Hopefully the weather holds up for this match-up! Also, Nunez’s FanDuel price is a steal.

Nicky Lopez (DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k) | 2B | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP)

Nicky Lopez has cooled off considerably after a strong start to his MLB career but he’s getting plenty of opportunities to hit from the lead-off spot and he’ll face off against the enigmatic Reynaldo Lopez. Reynaldo Lopez has pitched a couple strong games this season at home, where he will be tonight, but I’m certain that the consensus is that he isn’t all that good. Against LHBs (such as Nicky Lopez) he is allowing a .319 AVG, .425 wOBA, and .269 ISO along with a .404 OBP. I’d look for Nicky Lopez to start back up his production, considering he had a .353 AVG, .422 wOBA, and .457 OBP stat line in Triple-A this season.

Starlin Castro (DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k) | 2B | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP)

Apologies for all the infielders here, but if you really want to dig into the bottom of the barrel at second base, Castro is not far off from the absolute minimum price and he will most certainly slide in at fourth or fifth in the Marlins order. Castro has a very strong .340 AVG against LHPs this season and for career BvP numbers he is 14 of 33 against Bumgarner with three XBH -- good for a .424 AVG. Honestly, for a player this cheap, a hit or two along with perhaps a run or RBI is the sort of production that I would happily take. That’s a very doable stat line tonight for a reliable hitter (against lefties) like Castro.

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