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- Top MLB DFS Plays 5/28 | Rain, Rain, Go Away! š§ļø
Top MLB DFS Plays 5/28 | Rain, Rain, Go Away! š§ļø
By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat
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Happy Friday! I hope everyoneās gearing up to enjoy the long Memorial Day Weekend! Weāll have a dozen games on the docket for this eveningās main slate. Unfortunately, Iāll be surprised if all of these games actually play (edit: two PPDs have already come in while writing this article). There are plenty of weather situations to monitor with at least one or two washouts seeming like a strong possibilityā¦ and there is the potential for more PPDs than that. Iāll keep this intro short since there is quite a bit to cover. Good luck and be sure to stay vigilant with these pesky forecasts as we get closer to lock!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
Weather Outlook āļøš§ļøāļø
Forecasts can always change and improve in the upcoming hours but, as mentioned right above in the intro, there are several games carrying serious PPD risk, so stay on top of things! I wouldnāt be surprised if one or two PPD announcements come down the line while Iām writing this article. Further weather info will likely be shared in chat as we near lock.
MIL @ WAS: Major red flag on this game and I feel like weāll probably see a PPD announcement here well before to lock. There will be heavy rain in the D.C. area today and the only way I imagine this game plays is if they only receive coverage over the ballpark from the lighter side of the storm system. The odds of that happening arenāt great. For the sake of this newsletter, I wonāt be mentioning any players from this match-up.
UPDATE: The MIL@WAS game has been POSTPONED
ATL @ NYM: Light/moderate rain comes in right around the time of first pitch with heavier stuff in the mid/late innings. Even if they decide to start to play in the less serious stuff, I donāt believe they get nine innings in. Probably looking at another washout here so I wonāt mention any players in this game.
UPDATE: The ATL@NYM game has been POSTPONED
MIA @ BOS: The game starts off either dry or in light, playable rain. But itāll get heavier as the game progresses and theyād have to get lucky to get a complete game in here. Could see an early PPD decision here as well.
NYY @ DET: Possibility of a bit of precipitation, but not anything too worrisome. Itāll be cold, around 50 degrees, with winds blowing OUT to RF at 15-20 mph.
TOR @ CLE: There will be rain in the Cleveland area but it isnāt supposed to be too heavy. Brisk temps in the 50s with high 20-25 mph winds blowing IN from right/center. Pitchers get a nice bump if they decide to play, but only the diehard fans will show up to endure this crumby weather.
BAL @ CWS: Chilly and windy (20 mph OUT to RF) with lingering rain moving out of the area an hour or two after the scheduled first pitch. If they implement a late start, they can probably get this game in tonight. But this is another one where conditions will just be unpleasant in general for both players and fans.
SD @ HOU: Roof will reportedly be closed.
STL @ ARI: Roof will reportedly be open. 90+ degrees in Phoenix throughout most of this game.
Pitchers to Consider ā¾
Gerrit Cole (RHP) | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12.2k | @ DET
Not going to spend much time here. Everyone knows Cole is the slateās top ace so get him in if you can fit him in (particularly in cash lineups). His slate-best 35.5% kRate is likely going to inch up a bit by the time his day is over. The Tigers are one of the most strikeout prone teams in the league and have a 27.5% kRate vs. RHPs on the year. The Yanks are the heaviest favorites on the slate (-270) and Detroit has just a 2.8 implied run total. Remember: while this game seems like it *should* play, it still isnāt completely risk-free.
Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP) | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.6k | @ CLE
This is another spot that isnāt completely devoid of postponement concerns, but as long as the rain stays on the lighter side, these are exceptional pitching conditions with temps in the 50s and wind blowing in at 20-25 mph. Ryu has an excellent 2.53 ERA, 3.04 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and basement level 2.8% Walk Rate this season. The strikeout rate, while not elite, is still solid at 24.6% and he has plenty of potential to get about seven innings of work in on 100+ pitches. Cleveland is hitting just .215 vs. LHPs this year (ranks 28th) and their 87 wRC+ checks in at 25th. Vegas is giving the Indians just a 3.3 implied run total today and solid -164 moneyline odds for Toronto.
DK Only: Shoehei Ohtani (RHP), $7,800 @ OAK | Eli Morgan (RHP), $4,600 vs. TOR
Ohtani was scratched yesterday following some apparent transportation issues that didnāt allow him to get to the ballpark in time to go through his normal pre-game pitching routine, so heāll get his start in today. Heās only available as a hitter on FanDuel and wonāt accrue pitching fantasy scores (and, conversely, wonāt accrue hitting scores on DK). His 34.9% kRate is second on the slate only to Gerrit Cole so, while the opponent isnāt a cakewalk and Ohtaniās 17.1% Walk Rate is still a problem, he still has 8-10 K upside even if he only throws around 90 pitches.
Eli Morgan will be making his MLB debut and itās of course always risky rolling out an inexperienced rookie pitcher with an unknown pitch restriction. However, heāll draw those same advantageous pitching conditions mentioned above with Ryu. In three starts at the Triple-A level this year (13.2 IP), his numbers donāt look all that great: 3.95 ERA, 5.15 xFIP, 23.2% kRate, 14.3% BB%, 1.54 WHIP. But itās a small sample size and he posted considerably better numbers in more extensive work at lower minor league levels. Again, itās a significant risk, but Toronto has a fairly low 4.2 implied run total today and if Morgan can provide five innings of decent work on the mound, it wouldnāt be incredibly hard for him to return value as a cheap $4,600 SP2 option on DK. He is actually in the player pool on FanDuel ($5,500) if you really want to roll the dice on Morgan over there as well, but I doubt itās a super optimal route to take.
Team Stacks to Target šÆ
Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. Itās just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.
ā¬ļøš„ Top Stacks: š„ā¬ļø With all of the weather concerns factored in, I honestly donāt see a stand out āsafeā stack today, so I wonāt force anything here. Ownership could be pretty spread out.
Minnesota Twins vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC
If there is one team that ends up being a bit chalky, it may very well be the Twins. Theyāre in a strong spot against a lefty and there are no weather issues to fret over in Minnesota. The Twins are a top 10 offense against LHPs with a 108 wRC+ (ranks 9th) and they provide plenty of power upside as their team .191 ISO ranks 2nd in the MLB. Bubic has luck-boxed his way to a 1.52 ERA thru 23.2 IP this season, but heās due for massive regression-based on his poor 4.81 xFIP and 5.00 SIERA. Heāll be supported by a below-average Royals bullpen and there is some legitimate double-digit run upside for Minnesota today, but theyāre a really solid bet to produce around 5-to-7 runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), SF
LA is still not at full strength with Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, and AJ Pollock sidelined (though Bellinger may be back in the lineup tomorrow). However, DeSclafani will be facing this same Dodgers squad for the second time in the span of five days, which is often a less-than-ideal task for pitchers to deal with. His start against LA this past Sunday was one Iām sure DeSclafani would like to forget. He gave up nine hits, including a homer, and walked three which resulted in 10 earned runs across just 2.2 innings of work. The Dodgers lead all of baseball with a 122 wRC+ vs. RHPs and when they have runners in scoring position, theyāre hitting .277 (ranks 3rd) with a .356 wOBA (2nd), and 130 wRC+ (3rd). This is another worry-free game as far as weather goes, so I believe we can look towards this Dodger lineup for some solid production. In 52 plate appearances against DeSclafani, the current Dodgers roster has hit .370 with a .407 wOBA and have struck out just 11.5% of the time.
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out
Seattle Mariners vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX
The Mariner stack is probably not all that sneaky since theyāre being given a 4.6 implied run total today and it is pretty well-known that Jordan Lyles has a tendency to get knocked around on a routine basis. I still donāt believe a ton of DFS players trust this Seattle offense to come through and they havenāt scored more than five runs since May 15th, so their stack ownership may still be quite low. This season, Lyles has a 5.94 ERA, 4.79 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, while allowing a 47.6% HardHit% and .366 wOBA -- all some of the worst figures among todayās starters. The Mariners are still one of the worst offenses against RHPs but perhaps they can take advantage of this specific match-up tonight. Feel free to focus only on around three or four of these hitters (my preference would unsurprisingly be the guys towards the top of the order: Haniger, Kelenic, Lewisā¦ maybe a bit of Seager).
One-Off Hitters āļø
One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.
2B/OF Ketel Marte | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), STL
Few hitters got off to a hotter start to the 2021 season than Marte. He when 12-for-23 (.522) with four doubles and two homers over his first five games. Marte was sidelined for nearly a month-and-a-half after those first few games with a hamstring injury and has only recently returned to action eight days ago. In the six games since his return, he has slowly been shaking the rust off and got his first multi-hit game yesterday since his injury. Itās only a matter of time before he starts raking again and Iād like to get exposure to him while he is still probably a player most will look to avoid.
OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Justus Scheffield (LHP), SEA
Apologies for putting the jinx on Garcia by taking him as my HR Call yesterday. Hopefully, Iām not mushing him two days in a row by highlighting him as a one-off option, but he is a decent bet to go yard today. In his last 22 plate appearances versus lefties, heās launched four homers and recorded a 193 wRC+. Still way too cheap on DK.
OF Tommy Pham | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU
Pham has been a super consistent and affordable DFS asset over the last week. In his last seven games, Pham is hitting .308 with a double, two triples, and a home run. Heās rocking a .471 OBP in that span alongside a 196 wRC+ and has scored double-digit fantasy points in every one of those games. With Trent Grisham still sidelined, Pham will be a very worthy target batting at the lead-off position. Also, the Pham + Tatis mini-stack is always an appealing option.
Value Bats to Consider
Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.
OF Kyle Garlick | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC
1B/OF Pavin Smith | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), STL
OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI
2B/SS Adalberto Mondesi | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Randy Dobnak (RHP), MIN
OF Khris Davis | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Justus Sheffield (LHP), SEA
Home Run Call of the Day š£š„
OF Jarred Kelenic | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX
Welp, after going 3-for-5 on the HR Calls last week, itās been a rough 0-for-4 week thus far. Iām pretty much going with a gut pick here with Kelenic and not relying too much on what the stats say. Kelenic has been experiencing a steep learning curve at the MLB level and is only batting .150 through his first 55 professional at-bats. But the Mariners should continue to stick with him as their lead-off man and I believe the big games will start happening on a more routine basis soon. Both of Kelenicās homers have been against righty pitchers and Lyles isnāt particularly great against LHBs himself, so letās see if the young buck can notch his third career homer tonight.
ā¬ļøš RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH šā¬ļø
Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubbaās (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogmanās (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.
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