Top MLB DFS Plays 5/27 | A Tricky Thursday Slate

May 27, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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It’s another somewhat offbeat Thursday across the MLB DFS landscape. Hopefully, anyone dabbling on the early slate is cashing in by the time you read this. Depending on your preferred site, you’re looking at either a five or six-game main slate this evening. DraftKings has included the second game of a split doubleheader between the Reds & Nationals onto their main slate ticket, which will begin at 7:05 ET and only play seven innings. FanDuel chose to exclude that game so the main slate will begin at 8:10 ET over there with the BAL @ CWS match-up kicking things off. That O’s/White Sox game does have some weather concerns, so hopefully, we’re not looking at a PPD situation there. The pricing on pitchers is also all over the place between the two sites, which makes this a tricky one to write about 100% objectively but we’ll get it done!

Main slate match-ups with implied team totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

As mentioned in the intro, there are several at-risk games to monitor on this main slate!

BAL @ CWS: It would seem that rain will pretty much be unavoidable in Chicago this evening. The expectation here is that it will mostly be light to moderate rain and they’ll be able to play through off-and-on showers, as long as the field holds up. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s with 15-20 mph winds blowing OUT to right field. This feels like an outright coin flip in terms of whether or not they’ll play, so keep a lookout on the forecast here (and reports from the White Sox organization) closer to lock. For now, I will keep players in consideration for this newsletter.

STL @ ARI: The roof at Chase Field will be OPEN. Temperatures in the Phoenix area will be close to the mid-90s at the time of the first pitch and around 90 for the mid/later innings. That makes this likely the best hitting environment on the slate.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

DraftKings Only: For DK players, Sonny Gray ($9.7k) and Stephen Strasburg ($8.5k) should both draw consideration. If either guy can manage to pitch all seven innings of this game, they’ll be awarded the “complete game bonus” with potential for the “complete game shutout bonus” if they manage to allow zero runs along the way. If I had to pick one over the other, I slightly favor Strasburg as long as there is no hard pitch restriction announced for him.

Chris Bassitt (RHP) | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.1k | vs. LAA

I never love when a pitcher faces the same offense in back-to-back starts within the span of a week, but Bassitt did nearly make a bid for a complete game shutout against the Angels this past Saturday. He’s having a really solid season while posting a 3.67 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, 25.7% kRate, while allowing a .288 wOBA. Even without Mike Trout available, the Angels have been strong against RHPs (113 wRC+ since May 17th, Trout’s last game). And, again, they did just see Bassitt’s stuff five days ago. It’s a fairly lackluster slate for pitchers but I see plenty of potential for Bassitt to push for around 25 DKFP/40FDFP against a very righty-heavy Angels lineup.

Shoehei Ohtani (RHP) | DK: $7.7k, FD: $10.3k | @ OAK

I’m not sure if DraftKings and FanDuel will ever put similar price tags on Ohtani and he’s obviously more of a potential value on DK. Due to the fact that the Angels will be very cautious with their MVP candidate, he probably won’t throw over 90 pitches in many games this season, so that limits the upside. But Ohtani’s 34.9% kRate tops all pitchers on the slate by a considerable margin and strikeouts are, of course, the most coveted DFS scoring category when it comes to a pitcher. His plate control is still a huge concern and his slate-worst 17.1% Walk Rate is far from ideal and is something to keep in mind if you’re adding him to your player pool today. Oakland hits for power (.180 ISO vs. RHPs, ranks 4th) more so than average (.221 AVG ranks 26th) and Ohtani possesses a low 2.3% Barrel%. If he can keep the ball inside the park, I imagine he has a great chance to handle the A’s across five or six innings while tossing 8-to-10 strikeouts.

Alex Wood (LHP) | DK: $6.9k, FD: $9.8k | @ LAD

Wood is yet another pitcher who is priced very differently between DK and FD today. I still believe he should be in play on both sites but, again, he obviously makes more sense on DK. Despite the tough opponent, there is just no reason for him to be $6,900 over on DraftKings. The Dodgers are one of the most dangerous offenses against righties, but against lefties (like Wood), they’ve struggled this season. Against southpaws, they have just a .219 AVG (ranks 25th), .294 wOBA (25th), and 89 wRC+ (24th). Their 25.2% kRate against LHPs is also the 9th highest in baseball. With the exception of a tough start at Coors Field, Wood has scored at least 17.5 DKFP/33 FDFP in every other start this year. He is taking on the Dodgers for the second time in the last week and did get knocked around a bit on 5/21 when he gave up eight hits and two walks. But that translated to just two earned runs across six innings and he tossed seven strikeouts along the way.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ Assuming the weather doesn’t cause this game to be postponed, the White Sox are almost always going to be a top option when they’re going up against a lackluster lefty starter (like Bruce Zimmerman).

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Carlos Martinez (RHP), STL

I mentioned in the weather outlook section that, with the roof open and very warm temps in Phoenix, this game has what would seem to be the best hitting conditions on this small slate. As a result, both offenses in this match-up are in play -- especially since the Cardinals tend to score more on the road (4.46 runs/gm, ranks 11th) while the D-Backs score more at home (5.00 runs/gm, ranks 10th). If I was just taking one side of this game, it’s going to be Arizona. Carlos Martinez has a slate-worst 5.27 xFIP/5.21 SIERA this season and he’ll be supported by a bullpen that has an MLB-worst 4.96 xFIP/4.66 SIERA. Those are very poor underlying numbers for Martinez and the Cardinal relievers.

Texas Rangers vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

The Rangers have been putting up some solid offense lately, averaging 6.2 runs/gm over their last five. Flexen is one of the lower quality starters on the day. He’s posted a poor 4.76 xFIP and a slate-worst 1.57 WHIP on the year. Opponents have produced a .366 wOBA against him. Flexen also has a poor 70.7% Left on Base% while Texas is a top 10 team in terms of batting average vs. RHPs with runners in scoring position. Behind Flexen will be an average bullpen that ranks 14th with a 4.17 xFIP. The Rangers guys I would target here are Adolis Garcia, Brock Holt, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nate Lowe, and Willie Calhoun. All of those hitters have between a 123 and 172 wRC+ vs. RHPs.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Bullpen Game)

No traditional starter is currently scheduled to take the mound for the Dodgers today, so they’ll look to deploy a number of bullpen arms. I believe the Giants go under-owned tonight since people generally respect this Dodgers pitching staff. They certainly have one of the best, perhaps THE best, starting rotation in the league but truthfully their relievers have not been that great. The Dodger bullpen’s 23.7% kRate, 4.21 xFIP, and 1.35 WHIP are all below average figures. Their 66.2% Left on Base% is also the fourth lowest (worst) among all MLB bullpens. When they have runners in scoring position, the Giants have a .341 wOBA (ranks 4th) and 118 wRC+ (7th) on the season. It’s a sneaky spot for them to put up some solid run production here.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

1B/2B Max Muncy | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

Alex Wood has been awesome for the Giants this season but he has shown some poor reverse splits. Against LHBs, he’s allowing a .333 AVG, .365 wOBA, and .152 ISO. Muncy has traditional splits, but he doesn’t struggle all that much against southpaws. Against LHPs this year, he batting .273 with an excellent .435 wOBA and .235 ISO. If there’s one hitter who could give Wood major issues tonight, I think it’s big Max Muncy.

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Bruce Zimmerman (LHP), BAL

Abreu is only batting .257 against LHPs this season but his power is the main focal point here. He’s producing a .400 ISO and 44.4% Hard Contact against lefties this season which has helped lead to an excellent 176 wRC+. Bruce Zimmerman has simply not been a quality starter this year and is posting a 1.55 WHIP, 17.6% kRate, 2.09 HR/9, and a 42.6% HardHit% while allowing a .382 wOBA. Big upside out of the White Sox clean-up man this evening.

OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Matt Peacock (RHP), ARI

Carlson began the season red hot with three homers over his first six games. He hasn’t hit a dinger since April 7th, but he does at least usually provide a decent fantasy floor as a versatile switch hitter who bats second in the order. I also assume he’s going to start knocking ‘em out of the park again sooner or later and Chase Field could be a good place to start the home run hitting back up again. Matt Peacock has only faced 40 lefty hitters in this [his rookie] season, so “small sample size” and all that… but he’s allowing a .289 AVG, .359 wOBA, and a 2.89 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate. Liking Carlson today and if you want to run a super affordable two-man mini-stack alongside him, look to SS/2B Edmund Sosa (DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.1k) who has been an OBP machine for the Cards (.500 OBP on the year).

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

I mean… at this point Adolis Garcia doesn’t need much introduction, right? The man, the myth, the legend has smacked five homers out of the park over his last five games. He’s shown more power against righties (.340 ISO) this season and nine of his 16 HRs have come against righty pitching. I just don’t think Chris Flexen is the guy who shuts him down tonight.

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