Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 5/27 "On Deck" Podcast feat. Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

I hope everyone is enjoying their long Memorial Day weekend! Get ready to fire up the grill, grab a cold one, and kick your feet up for an all day baseball affair. For this edition of the “Daily Ledger” we’ll be looking to focus on the 13-game “all day” slate with game two of the Pirates/Reds doubleheader being the only excluded match-up. The action begins at 1:05 pm ET so be sure to get your research and entries in early! Let’s slide right into the nitty-gritty!

Monday’s match-ups with totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

MIL @ MIN: For our first evening game, we have a pretty decent shot at seeing a delayed start. Rain should be in the area all day and for about two hours after the scheduled first pitch but there shouldn’t be much precipitation behind the initial stretch of storms. If the field is deemed “unplayable” or the rain hangs around longer than expected, there’s a real possibility of postponement. Keep your eye on this one!

With June quickly approaching, keep an eye out for several games that will feature game time temperatures in the 80+ degree range which can provide batters with a little extra pop!

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Clayton Kershaw (DK: $10.2k, FD: $10k) | LHP | LAD vs. NYM

There are a handful of aces on the mound today and you could make a case for rostering any of ‘em. I’m really liking this spot for Kershaw in terms of floor plus ceiling upside. While he may not be posting the same sort of numbers from years past, he is still off to a 4-0 start with a 3.33 ERA, 3.41 SIERA, .219 AVG, 0.98 WHIP, and 24.9% kRate. From a DFS perspective, really all you could complain about with him is the lower strikeout rate. However, he’s got a great shot at potentially hitting double-digit strikeouts versus the Mets, who have struggled heavily on the road versus lefties this season with a 30.3% kRate. If we take a more recent sample size, in the last month the Mets have a massive 38.7% kRate against lefties on the road, paired with a .195 AVG, .225 wOBA, and 36 wRC+. That is only a 119 plate appearance sample size but those are still truly awful numbers. New York may deploy upwards of eight righties in their starting lineup but that shouldn’t be too concerning considering Kershaw has actually had far better splits to that side of the plate this season. His counterpart, Jacob deGrom, could likely turn this match into a pitcher’s dual with a current total of just 6.5 runs but the books are giving Kershaw a solid edge, as he and the Dodgers are -160 favorites.

Zack Greinke (DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.5k) | RHP | ARI @ COL

Going after a discounted stud pitcher taking the hill in Coors Field, like Greinke will this afternoon, is always an intriguing approach for GPPs. If you can stomach the additional risk, there’s certainly an opportunity for Greinke to pay off his reduced DFS salaries. He’s currently sporting a 2.89 ERA, 3.54 SIERA, 24.8% kRate, 1.13 WHIP and holding opponents to a .203 AVG. He’s not a pitcher that allows a very high amount of hard contact (34%) or fly balls (33.7%) so some risk of surrendering home runs is mitigated. The Rockies have a 95 wRC+ rating at home versus righties this season. So, given the park factors taken into account, we know that Colorado is a pretty average team offensively. Greinke has carved up several offenses this year who are much more dangerous than Colorado. It’s a risk/reward situation here but the current total for this game, which is essentially a pick ‘em, sits at 10 runs. That’s an implied run total that will typically be on the lower end of the spectrum for a Coors Field game.

Rick Porcello (DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k) | RHP | BOS vs. CLE

Porcello had a rough opening to the season but he has pulled things together lately while averaging 21 DKFP over his last five starts. In that stretch, across 33.2 innings pitched, he has a 2.41 ERA and 0.74 WHIP while allowing a .171 AVG and .221 wOBA. He’s taking the mound at Fenway Park today where he has been considerably better this season. His home ERA (3.41) is over two runs lower than his road ERA (5.76) and he’s allowed just a .208 AVG and 1.14 WHIP at home as well. The Indians have been the fifth worst team against righties on the road over the last month with an 81 wRC+, so indications are that Porcello can find some success here. Porcello has never really been a high strikeout pitcher and he has just a 19.3% kRate this year, but he should be able to cover six or seven innings with a handful of strikeouts while (hopefully) keeping the Indians’ scoring damage to a minimum. The Red Sox are currently one of the strongest favorites of the day with their moneyline sitting at -180.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Boston Red Sox vs. Jefry Rodriguez (RHP | CLE)

Expected Ownership: Medium

Despite not allowing more than four runs across his six starts, Rodriguez has some potential to get blown up against this Boston lineup. His 5.14 SIERA is the worst mark among starters on the slate and he only has a 12.8% kRate on the road this season. Boston has been a bit “feast or famine” lately but their average of 5.47 runs/game at home ranks fourth in baseball. Second, really, if you exclude the Rockies and Rangers. Rodriguez can be tagged up by both sides of the plate, though he gives up more power and home runs to lefties. But when looking for Boston bats that are running hot against righties over the last month, they have a trio of guys with a .300+ AVG, .400+ wOBA, and .200+ ISO. That includes Mookie Betts (.454 wOBA, .229 ISO), Rafael Devers (.444 wOBA, .256 ISO), and Michael Chavis (.400 wOBA, .205 ISO). I’m picking Devers to be my Memorial Day home run call.

Oakland Athletics vs. Trevor Cahill (RHP | LAA)

Expected Ownership: Medium/Low

Cahill has been a DFS blessing in several games this season. He leads the slate with a 2.57 HR/9 Rate while allowing 45.2% Hard Contact and a 37.8% FB% resulting in 23.7% HR/FB Rate. It’s a shame that Oakland doesn’t have many quality lefties they can throw at Cahill because he has pretty extreme splits. But some hitters in the A’s order that have been producing against RHPs include Mark Canha (.422 wOBA, .436 ISO), Matt Chapman (.351 wOBA, .204 ISO), and Matt Olson (.337 wOBA, .190 ISO). Olson should also make for a great one-off hitter to roll out as the A’s best lefty.

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Opener & Bullpen

Expected Ownership: Low

This game actually features two terrible pitching staffs, so with a current total of 9.5 runs, it may not be a bad idea to get a full game stack going in this one (even though the thought of loading up on Tigers and Orioles is kinda unsettling). The Orioles will elect to start RHP Gabriel Ynoa who has 70.2 professional innings to his name. In that span, he has allowed a .303 AVG, .338 wOBA, 1.53 WHIP with a 5.09 ERA and 4.54 xFIP. The majority of his innings have come in relief and, thus, in advantageous situations. With that in mind, expectations should be pretty low for him, even against a pretty bad Detroit offense. Ynoa should be on some sort of pitch restriction in which case the Orioles will need to deploy their bullpen earlier than usual. This is a bullpen that is allowing 1.99 HR/9 with a 1.54 WHIP, 6.09 ERA, and 4.39 SIERA. As you’re probably aware, this Tiger offense doesn’t have many great options but here are a few guys who have been their stronger hitters over the last month: Miguel Cabrera (.368 wOBA, .865 OPS), Nicholas Castellanos (.319 wOBA, .185 ISO), and Ronny Rodriguez (.314 wOBA, .274 ISO).

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Hunter Pence (DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k) | OF | vs. LHP Tommy Milone

Potential late night hammer? Pence has been crushing southpaws lately with a 1.095 wOBA+ISO and four home runs over his last 25 plate appearances versus LHPs. Milone will be getting just his second start of the season but over his last 20 career starts, against RHBs he allows a .313 AVG and a robust .712 wOBA+ISO. Pence has a nice shot at hitting his fourth home run in the last week and 12th of the season.

Christian Walker (DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.7k) | 1B | vs. RHP Jon Gray

Walker has been pretty awful lately, no doubt about it. He has just a .180 AVG over the last month in 90 at-bats. But he is a reverse splits hitter who will match up with fellow righty Jon Gray tonight and a few trips to the plate at Coors Field has been the cure for many hitters going through slumps in the past. Despite the abysmal recent numbers, against righties Walker still has a .366 wOBA and .266 ISO on the season. Seven of his eight homers on the year have come at the expense of righties. Gray allows more power to LHBs but his .205 ISO given to RHBs is plenty enough for someone like Walker to send one deep in Denver.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k) | 3B | vs. RHP Yonny Chirinos

Vlad Jr. is probably still too cheap on both sites considering the type of upside he has. He’s shown signs of reverse splits this season, as all five of his home runs have come off of righties and he has a .683 wOBA+ISO across his last 20 games (63 plate appearances) against RHPs. Yonny Chirinos is a reverse splits pitcher who struggles more with righty bats, so Guerrero Jr. is certainly in a reasonable spot to produce in this “reverse splits hitter vs. reverse splits pitcher” scenario.

LineStar MLB Freeroll

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to give the "On Deck" Podcast a listen! You can find it linked at the top of this newsletter.

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