By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

I hope everyone’s ready to lock it in as we enter into the long Memorial Day weekend because we have a huge Friday night ahead of us! There’s a 13-game main slate waiting on deck and there will be no shortage of ways to attack this one. There are several premium pitchers on the mound tonight as well as some talented arms priced down in the mid and low salary ranges. On the offensive side, four teams currently have at least a 5.0 implied run total which I’m almost certain we haven’t seen yet this season, especially on a non-Coors slate. Nine teams possess at least a 4.6 implied run total, so Vegas is certainly expecting a high-scoring evening. Let’s have fun with this one and here’s to the LineStar fam grabbing some big bags by night’s end!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There will be two or three games that could be impacted by rain. Currently, any kind of postponement doesn’t seem incredibly likely, but be sure to see how the forecasts are looking closer to lock! Fortunately, all three games that could see rain are frontloaded towards the beginning of the slate so we’ll have a good idea of how things should play out before the slate gets underway.

COL @ WAS (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Storms in the area with coverage picking up later in the evening. They could see a large enough dry window to get this game in, or perhaps they play a bit wet at times, but a delay/PPD is a possibility.

CLE @ DET (7:10 ET, 7 O/U): They could see some afternoon rain hang around and spill over into the start of the game. Rain chances decrease as the evening goes on so there’s potential for a late start but a PPD doesn’t seem overly likely.

PHI @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Scattered storms around but they’re expected to be light enough to play through, if they even impact the game at all. Still, a chance for a delay is on the table. Winds blowing OUT to left/center at 10-15 mph.

BAL @ BOS (7:10 ET, 10 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to left towards the green monster at around 15 mph. Bats get a bump.

LAD @ ARI (9:40 ET, 10 O/U): The roof is scheduled to be open at Chase Field tonight. Temps in the Phoenix area will be just over 100 degrees (!) at first pitch. 

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.8k | @ SEA

Verlander checks in as the top pitcher on the board today and he has clearly earned the high-end DFS salaries. Out of eight starts this season, he has yet to have a truly poor outing, and his best start of the season came against this Mariners squad back on 4/16 when JV went eight innings allowing zero runs on three hits, no walks, and recorded eight strikeouts. Verlander has posted a 1.22 ERA this season with a 3.28 xFIP and an incredibly low 0.72 WHIP. His xFIP being over two runs higher than his ERA is a little concerning -- potentially hinting at some regression being due. But, otherwise, he has a solid 26.3% kRate and is averaging just under a strikeout per inning. The Seattle bats have been solid lately, with a 113 wRC+ over the last week, but they have a high 26.2% kRate in that time as well. But the Astros check in as huge -210 road favorites today and Verlander should continue to roll tonight.

Garrett Whitlock (RHP), BOS | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7k | vs. BAL

With today’s second highlighted pitcher, I’m dropping down quite a bit in salary from the aforementioned Justin Verlander. Sure, I could have talked in-depth about Shane Bieber (DK: $9k, FD: $8.6k) who gets a great match-up with the strikeout-happy Detroit Tigers, but that’s a pretty obvious play that I believe everyone should be able to recognize.

So we arrive here at Whitlock. While he hasn’t posted consistent results this season, the Red Sox righty does lead all pitchers on the slate with his 29.0% kRate and he backs that up with a strong 13.7% Swinging Strike Rate. Also, when you compare Whitlock’s 3.58 ERA to his 3.15 xFIP and 2.99 SIERA, it can be deduced that he’s been a bit unlucky this season. One negative to bring up about Whitlock is the short leash that Boston has kept him on this season. Perhaps that leash gets extended soon, maybe even today, but up to this point he has yet to throw for more than 82 pitches in any single game. But the match-up with Baltimore (87 wRC+, 24.2% kRate) is a good one and Boston is a heavy -170 favorite today. Those 15 mph winds blowing out to left at Fenway do also add some risk, but if you’re searching for a low-owned GPP pitcher with notable upside, Whitlock may fit the bill.

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.2k | vs. NYY

The cheap pitcher that most will gravitate towards today (primarily at SP2 on DraftKings) will be Jon Gray (DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.1k) who draws the match-up with Oakland’s so-called offense. Given the match-up, there’s nothing necessarily wrong with the Jon Gray play, particularly in cash. But the current DK pOwn% for Gray is 42% and he has yet to score over 20 DKFP in any of his six starts this season. That’s a lot of chalk to eat for a guy who hasn’t shown notable upside.

But that brings me to Jeffrey Springs who has a DK pOwn% of only 9%. Many will see the Yankees match-up that Springs has lined up and they’ll just continue to scroll right past him just for that reason. But the Yankees are dealing with some notable injuries and will continue to roll out a watered-down lineup today. Giancarlo Stanton is on the IL while DJ LeMahieu, Josh Donaldson, and Aaron Hicks are all listed as day-to-day with various ailments and won’t play today. Over the last week, the Yankees have posted a not-so-threatening .279 wOBA, .128 ISO, and 85 wRC+.

After starting the season in a reliever role, Springs has been getting stretched out as a rotational starter for a few weeks now. He’s coming off of his lengthiest and, coincidentally, his best start of the season from six days ago. In that game, he faced the Orioles and threw 80 pitches across 5.2 innings, allowed one hit (but four walks), zero runs, and struck out seven while recording the win -- a performance that was good enough to earn him 27.8 DKFP/44 FDFP. Through 27.1 IP this season, Springs has a sharp 1.32 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 3.13 SIERA, 0.80 WHIP, .208 opp wOBA, and an excellent 27.0% kRate. The high kRate is legit too because Springs owns a slate-leading 15.2% Swinging Strike Rate. I don’t mean to go overkill on the stats here but I’d just like to drive home the point that Springs has legitimate stuff and should not be avoided JUST because he’s facing the Yankees today. To give you an idea of what the sportsbooks are thinking about their offensive potential today, the Yankees are being pinned with only a 3.4 implied run total in this game. So consider Springs to be another intriguing GPP play, especially at his bottom-of-the-barrel DFS salaries.

Also Consider:

Sean Manaea (LHP), SD | DK: $10k, FD: $9.7k | vs. PIT

Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE | DK: $9k, FD: $8.6k | @ DET

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.1k | @ OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory: Boston Red Sox vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

At this point, everyone knows that Boston’s offense is white hot (162 wRC+ L14 days, 179 wRC+ L7 days) and you don’t need me to convince you that they’re a worthy team to stack up today. So, much like the Yankees from a couple of weeks back, feel free to stack ‘em up until they eventually cool off.

Atlanta Braves vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

The Braves will see Trevor Rogers (5.20 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP) for the third time this season, and for the second time within the last week. They lit him up pretty good last Friday when they racked up eight hits (three HRs) and five runs against Rogers across his four innings pitched. Despite striking out way too much (27% kRate) the Braves have been strong against lefties this season: .336 wOBA (ranks 3rd), .190 ISO (4th), 113 wRC+ (8th), 34.2% HardContact% (3rd), 16.5% HR/FB (2nd). The downside here is the absence of Ronald Acuna Jr. (quadriceps) from the lineup. Even without Ronnie out there, the Braves have several guys that can do damage against Rogers and a mediocre Marlins bullpen tonight.

Favorite ATL Bats: Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley | Sneaky Bat: William Contreras

Houston Astros vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

The Astros continue to be a fairly expensive stack and when people pay up for bats tonight, I’d expect most to gravitate towards the big Boston hitters or the usual suspects over on the Dodgers squad. Houston is also out on the west coast tonight where offenses (not named the Dodgers) often go overlooked and under-owned in DFS. The Astros have been better on the road this season where they have a 116 wRC+ (ranks 5th) and average 4.68 runs/gm -- that’s over a run more than they average at home. They’re also a top-hitting team versus RHPs (119 wRC+, ranks 3rd) and Chris Flexen has been nothing special this season: 4.98 ERA, 4.84 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, 1.87 HR/9. Flexen is allowing a ton of contact and doesn’t rack up many strikeouts with his 16.6% kRate on the season. The Seattle bullpen has been pretty awful lately as well. Over the last two weeks, Mariners relievers have combined for a 6.34 ERA, 4.87 xFIP, and 1.57 WHIP while allowing a .286 AVG.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman | Sneaky Bat: Jeremy Pena 

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), LAD

The Dodgers will be the team that gets most of the attention in this game but the D-Backs could be in a nice spot to produce some offense of their own. They bring a solid 4.6 implied run total into this game and if the Chase Field roof is going to be open like the official D-Backs MLB.com site indicates, then there could be some extra ‘pop’ on the baseballs with those 100 degree Phoenix temperatures creeping into the air. It’s a small sample size, but Pepiot has not looked too great over his first two major league starts: 3.86 ERA, 6.70 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, 62.5% Flyball%. Pepiot’s most recent start came against this D-Backs team 10 days ago and Arizona was able to rough him up a little bit (2 H, 3 BB, 3 ER in 4 IP). The Dodgers bullpen has also not been quite as good lately as what we’re used to seeing out of that unit. Over the last two weeks, the LAD bullpen has posted a not-so-dominant 3.57 xFIP and 1.37 WHIP.

Favorite ARI Bats: Christian Walker, Daulton Varsho, Pavin Smith | Sneaky Bat: Alek Thomas

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

2B/SS Trevor Story | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Alex Faedo (RHP), DET

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), PIT

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

OF Brandon Nimmo | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI

SS Dansby Swanson | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

C Mitch Garver | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Kiké Hernandez | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

OF Alek Thomas | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), LAD

1B Edwin Rios | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

OF Jesus Sanchez | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

C Christian Vazquez | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

OF Kole Calhoun | DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

1B/OF Seth Brown | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF Luis Barrera | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Will Smith | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

The official Dodgers lineup has not yet been released at the time of this writing but I believe we can expect Will Smith to be back at clean-up tonight, batting fourth. Despite not actually pitching all that well (4.65 xFIP, 4.81 SIERA), Bumgarner has held down a low 2.76 ERA this season. But he has still been giving up some home runs -- six this season, and they’ve all come off the bats of right-handed hitters. He’s allowing a fairly high 39.7% HardHit% and 1.57 HR/9 to RHBs. Will Smith has a solid .188 ISO vs. LHPs this year and does have a couple of HRs in only 32 at-bats against lefties. He has faced Bumgarner only seven times in his career but he has taken him deep once before while batting .429. And we can’t forget how bad that D-Backs bullpen is either, so the HR chances will be there even when Bumgarner is off the mound. I also think we’ll see the home runs fly out of Chase Field tonight since they’re scheduled to have the roof open this evening and temperatures in Phoenix will be 100 degrees at first pitch. 

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Chris Flexen UNDER 16.5 Outs | -135 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Flexen (4.98 ERA, 4.81 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP) has failed to record more than 16 outs in four consecutive starts. He has a low 16.6% kRate to begin with, so he’s allowing a ton of contact and will have a difficult task ahead of him against an Astros lineup that tends not to strikeout very much against RHPs. He did cover six full innings (18 outs) against Houston earlier in the season but I just imagine the Astros can tag him up early enough to get him off the mound before he hits 5.2 IP tonight. The Mariners had yesterday off and have a well-rested bullpen that has only thrown 19.1 IP over the last week (8th fewest IP among relievers in that span). So, with that in mind, Seattle may not hesitate to pull Flexen at the first sign of real trouble after the third or fourth inning.

Friday Fun Home Run Prop Parlay:

Trevor Story (+350), Manny Machado (+300), Mookie Betts (+300) All to Hit a HR | +7100 | 0.5 Units

If you’ve got a small chunk of change to throw at the occasional HR prop parlay, there’s nothing wrong with getting a little spicy once in a while and seeing if you can cash out big. These three guys all make a ton of sense to homer tonight.

Story: The dude’s on fire. Seven HRs over his last seven games with a .345 AVG, .592 wOBA, and .724 ISO… ridiculous. He faces Kyle Bradish who has a 3.77 HR/9 Rate vs. RHBs this season.

Mookie: Also on fire. .355 AVG in the month of May with nine HRs and a .387 ISO. MadBum is on the mound for Arizona and is due to get shelled sooner rather than later. The D-Backs bullpen is a mess. The roof is open at Chase Field, 100-degree temps in Phoenix at first pitch. Let’s go.

Machado: It’s pretty much as simple as “Machado faces a lefty today… look out for a dinger.” He’s hitting .405 with a massive .551 wOBA and .452 ISO vs. LHPs this season with six HRs in only 42 at-bats.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!