Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 Weekend Edition - On Deck Podcast with Joe & Chris

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Go get yourself something to eat and a cup of coffee, we've got an early breakdown this morning. Sunday brings us an eleven game slate with a pretty healthy mix of options. We've got some elite pitchers in questionable spots such as Verlander against the Red Sox and Bauer against the Rays. It's also David Hess day. Actually, it's David Hess at Coors Field day (pause for laughter) so we'll want some exposure to the Rockies. Among pitchers with at least 40 IP this season, Hess leads them all with 17 home runs allowed. He has a 3.38 HR/9 so far this season (that's not a typo). It will be bombs away in Colorado this afternoon. Here’s a look at all the games from a Vegas perspective:

There are light threats of rain scattered throughout multiple games but none of them appear to be a cause for concern. The biggest trouble spot is likely in Pittsburgh but it doesn't look like it will impact the game. As far as temperatures go, it's hot in New York (84 degrees) and Washington (89 degrees). If you can stomach rostering the Marlins, they could be sneaky today in a plus match up against Erik Fedde, a positive park shift in Washington, and the very hot weather that will help the ball carry.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Chris Paddack (DK: $10.4K, FD: $10.6K) | RHP | at Toronto Blue Jays

The preseason hype has not disappointed, as Paddack has looked very much like the real deal here in the first two months of the season. He's 4-2 in nine starts with a 3.37 SIERA (1.93 ERA), 0.75 WHIP, 29.3% strikeouts, and only 5.5% walks. He's been absolutely deadly against right-handed hitting in particular with his 2.71 xFIP, 0.49 WHIP, 35.2% strikeouts, and 3.4% walks. It's worth pointing out that the numbers are suggesting he's been a bit lucky and the current trend he's on is not likely to last. His SIERA (3.37) is significantly higher than his ERA (1.93), his BABIP allowed is very low at just .195, and he's allowing a scary-high 47.4% hard contact rate. Not ideal. This doesn't suddenly mean he'll crash and burn but I do think at some point in the not too distant future it might be worth hopping off the Paddack train and watch regression catch up with him a bit. With all that said, I'm not concerned today, given his match up against a less than exciting Blue Jays team. Against right-handed pitching, Toronto is 28th in wOBA (.284), 23rd in ISO (.162), 28th in OPS (.659), and 28th in wRC+ at just 75. They also strikeout 25.1% of the time which is tied for sixth most against righties this season. Bottom line? Paddack has a ton of upside and even though the data is suggesting eventual regression, this is not a spot where I'm worried about getting burned against one of the weakest offenses in baseball.

Zack Wheeler (DK: $8.6K, FD: $9.5K) | RHP | vs. Detroit Tigers

Wheeler's first four starts of the season: 1-2, 6.35 ERA (5.11 SIERA), 1.54 WHIP, 21.6% strikeouts, and 13.7% walks. Wheeler's six starts since: 2-1, 3.83 ERA (3.31 SIERA), 1.28 WHIP, 28.6% strikeouts, and 5.4% walks. Notice what's causing the difference? Wheeler had 14 walks in his first four starts and has had only nine walks since. With command comes confidence and with confidence comes results. He's had double-digit strikeouts in three of his last six starts. It's also worth noting he's had some difficult match ups including four appearances already against the Nationals, the Phillies twice, the Braves, and the Brewers. Today, he'll get one of his easiest match ups of the young season against a Detroit Tigers team that has won just two of its last 12 games. Detroit, similar to the Blue Jays, are next to the bottom of the league in every relevant hitting statistic against right-handed pitching this season. They are 29th in wOBA at .278, 29th in ISO at .137, 29th in OPS at .646, and 29th in wRC+ at only 71. The Tigers are also striking out 26.1% of the time (3rd most) and walking 7.5% of the time (third fewest) against righties this season. With Wheeler's stock rapidly rising and the Tigers stock crashing quickly, he makes for a solid option with some savings mixed in being priced just below the top-tier on both sites today.

Brandon Woodruff (DK: $6.6K, FD: $9K) | RHP | vs. Philadelphia Phillies

I'm not sure what happened on DraftKings today but Woodruff's pricing legitimately feels like a mistake. Despite a string of extremely steady and consistent performances, his priced dropped by $1,700, making him the 18th most expensive pitcher on that site behind guys like Beeks, Eflin, Roark, Duffy, etc. Meanwhile, he's the 8th most expensive pitcher on FanDuel tonight, well ahead of all those players I just mentioned. Mistake or not, we have to acknowledge it, as it puts him as arguably the best value on the board on DraftKings. He's picking up right where he left off last season with his 3.63 SIERA, 1.30 WHIP, 27.5% strikeouts, and 7.7% walks. The one red flag is that he's getting hit hard by left-handed batters right now (1.68 WHIP, 41.2% hard contact, .360 wOBA allowed) but the BABIP is also a well above average .359 which we should expect to regress and help level off some of these numbers. He's as solid as it gets against right-handed batters including a 2.66 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, and 31.8% strikeout rate. Woodruff is pitching very well right now and hasn't done anything, at least from what I can tell, to earn such a significant drop off in pricing today. It's going to make him popular on DraftKings, but in this case, it's worth it.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Colorado Rockies vs. David Hess (RHP – Baltimore Orioles)

Minnesota Twins vs. Dylan Covey (RHP - Chicago White Sox)

It's all about finding pivots today that we believe can keep up with the Rockies. This is one potential spot that carries a 10.5 O/U and the Twins have an implied total of 5.9 runs. Minnesota is the top team in baseball right now against right-handed pitching with a .360 wOBA, .254 ISO, and an .860 OPS. They also only strikeout 19.4% of the time (third fewest in the league) which is going to make it really difficult for Covey, who had just a 16.6% strikeout rate last season, to get himself out of trouble. A quick look at the 2018 data for Covey reveals he struggled slightly more with left-handed hitters (4.72 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP) than right-handed hitters (3.84 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP) but honestly, it's not pretty either way, so I wouldn't worry too much about splits here. The entire Twins lineup is in play today.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Zach Eflin (RHP – Philadelphia Phillies)

This is a brutal match up for Eflin who is notorious for struggling with left-handed hitters. In 2018, Eflin had a 4.32 xFIP and 1.53 WHIP while allowing 40.7% fly balls, only 11.8% soft contact, and a .355 wOBA to lefties. Welp, unfortunately for him, the Brewers have a murderers row of left-handed power that should be able to exploit this today. Yelich (do I really need to explain this one?), Moustakas (.886 OPS, .369 wOBA, .295 ISO), Grandal (.829 OPS, .352 wOBA, .208 ISO), and Thames (.336 wOBA, .188 ISO) are standing out to me here. Feel free to include right-handed hitters as well but the lefties are just standing out more. The Brewers have a solid 4.9 implied run total today.

Chicago Cubs vs. Tanner Roark (RHP – Cincinnati Reds)

There's no total yet in this game but the forecast isn't calling for those trademark Chicago winds at Wrigley field so I don't see it having much of an impact. Similar to Eflin, Roark is really struggling with left-handed hitters this season and that's going to be a serious problem against this Cubs lineup. In 51.1 innings, Roark has a 6.84 xFIP, 2.14 WHIP, and almost as many walks (14.1%) as strikeouts (16.2%) against left-handed bats. Rizzo (1.025 OPS, .425 wOBA, .326 ISO vs RHP) and Schwarber (.193 ISO) are jumping off the page. Heyward and Descalso could provide some salary relief in a plus match up. Don't be afraid to use the right-handed hitters as well.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Luke Voit (DK: $4.7K, FD: $4.2K) | 1B | vs. Danny Duffy (LHP)

Duffy has only thrown 28.1 innings this season so I'm going to lean a little more on his 2018 results. In 155 innings, he had a 5.23 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, 11.2% walks, and allowed a .344 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Voit has a .785 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching. He's also heating up with a 60% hard contact rate and an average exit velocity of 98.2 mph over the past two weeks.

Harold Ramirez (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.5K) | OF | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP)

The Marlins are on my stacking radar today against Fedde but I just can't bring myself to be overexposed to this lineup on an eleven game slate. Ramirez, however, looks like a solid piece we could pull as a one off that will provide some salary relief if we need it. He's slowly moving up in the order, projected to bat fifth today, and he's had two double-digit fantasy points in his past five games. Since being recalled, he has a .589 wOBA+ISO, 50% hard hit rate, and a 92.9 mph average exit velocity. He gets a great match up today against Fedde.

Justin Turner (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3K) | 3B | vs. Chris Archer (RHP)

It's a small sample, but something that popped out to me today is how poorly Archer is doing against RIGHT-handed hitters. In 35.2 IP he has a 5.84 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, only 19.2% strikeouts, and a massive 15.4% walk rate. He's allowing 40% hard contact and a .372 wOBA to right-handed bats. Again, small sample, but Archer is pitching poorly enough right now that I think it's worth bringing up. The Dodgers are a sneaky stack on this slate and I really like Turner with most people likely focusing on the left-handed hitters. Turner has a .670 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching over his last 20 games.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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