Top MLB DFS Plays 5/26 | Keeping an Eye on the Skies in the East Coast

May 26, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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We have an enticing nine-game main slate lined up for this Wednesday evening. I’d say the pitching options are just ‘alright’ with a few strong options up top and mostly wildcards the rest of the way down. So, with that in mind, it would seem that offenses have the upper hand today and ten teams currently hold at least a 4.6 implied run total. This will also be a very ‘east coast heavy’ slate and only one game (SF @ ARI) is scheduled to start after 7:40 ET. Unfortunately, there is also some messy weather forecasted for the east coast this evening which will put several games in danger of seeing some sort of late start or in-game delay -- a postponement or two cannot be ruled out either. There is at least some chance that all games will get nine full innings in tonight, but just be on your toes and pay attention to what the forecasts are looking like closer to lock. You don’t want to get burned by a sudden postponement situation! Good luck tonight, let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied team totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

As mentioned in the intro, there are several at-risk games to monitor on this main slate!

CIN @ WAS: Pretty decent chance we see some kind of delay or late start here -- lower end PPD threat. Rain chances pick up in the mid/late innings but decrease quite a bit around 10 pm ET. It may not be a smooth evening, but it seems like they *should* get nine innings in.

ATL @ BOS: Not as significant of a weather threat here as other places, but there is a chance for some rain in the area, mostly towards the end of the game. Winds blowing OUT to LF at 15 mph.

TOR @ NYY: This game could start out dry but things may not stay that way the entire way through. An in-game delay seems like a pretty likely scenario. The game getting called early or an outright PPD on the table as well. Winds blowing OUT to LF at 10-15 mph so nice hitting conditions if they can play nine.

COL @ NYM: Citi Field is only seven miles away from Yankee Stadium and this game is scheduled to start just five minutes later, so you can pretty much apply the same situation in the Yankees game above to this one.

LAD @ HOU: Roof scheduled to be closed.

SF @ ARI: Roof scheduled to be open. As usual, temperatures in Phoenix will be around 90 degrees during this game.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP) | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.7k | vs. KC

Even with Trevor Bauer (DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.5k) on the slate, it’s difficult to look past Glasnow as the top pitching option of the evening. I’d expect his ownership to reflect that, but he’ll make for an ideal cash SP1 this evening. A bonus is that he doesn’t have to worry about any of the weather issues today. Glasnow will look to bounce back after getting rocked in his last start against Toronto. I believe we can all forgive any pitcher who has a poor outing in a ballpark that has essentially turned into ‘Coors Field South’ down in Dunedin, FL. Glasnow holds an elite 36.0% kRate on the season alongside a slate best 16.2% Swinging Strike Rate and 2.87 xFIP. The Royals rank just inside the bottom half of the league against RHPs with a .231 AVG, .300 wOBA, and 90 wRC+. They’re declining as of late as well, hitting just .212 with a .266 wOBA and 67 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks. Glasnow and the Rays will be the heaviest favorites of the day (-205) and the Royals have just a 3.0 implied run total. Tropicana Field has been one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league and in four home starts this season, Glasnow is averaging a lofty 33.2 DKFPPG/55.3 FDFPPG.

Chris Paddack (RHP) | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.5k | @ MIL

Until we get closer to the first pitch and have better clarification with more up-to-date forecasts, I’m going to be wary of entrusting pretty much any starting pitcher in those match-ups listed above that possess weather concerns. There are few things more deflating in MLB DFS than your starting pitcher throwing three or four innings then getting hit with a lengthy in-game weather delay and being shelved for the remainder of the game once play resumes (assuming the game doesn’t get called early). That leads to Paddack making sense out of the mid-range today as he takes the mound in a domed stadium. He’s coming off of his best fantasy start of the season when he racked up 24.5 DKFP/43 FDFP against Seattle. The Mariners have been easy prey for opposing pitchers this season but, even though they haven’t been two-time no-hit victims (yet) this season (like Seattle), Milwaukee may be an even cushier match-up. On the season vs. RHPs, the Brewers are hitting just .205 (ranks 29th) with a .282 wOBA (last) and 77 wRC+ (29th) while striking out 26.6% of the time (3rd most). Pretty much all of Paddack’s pitching metrics scream “average” but it doesn’t take a bona fide ace to put up a nice DFS score against this Milwaukee team. Just give me 90-95 pitches across six innings with minimal damage allowed, 5-to-7 Ks and, ideally a win/QS bonus. If he can manage that, I’ll gladly take a 20-25 DKFP/35-45 FDFP day and run. Certainly that isn’t too much to ask for, right?!

Alek Manoah (RHP) | DK: $4.8k, FD: N/A | @ NYY

The obvious risk is obvious -- Manoah will be making his MLB debut… on the road… against the Yankees… with lingering weather concerns that could shorten or outright cancel his first career start. He’s only available in the DK player pool today (hey, seriously, can FanDuel step it up and add a bunch of these prospects?!) but, if he can survive five or six innings (assuming the Blue Jays give him that long of a leash), then there’s potential to be had for this $4,800 price tag. Manoah was the 11th overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft and second overall pitcher taken that year. He throws a mid-90s fastball (which can touch 97 mph), uses an elusive slider as his putaway pitch, and has a changeup and sinking fastball in his arsenal as well. With limited work at the Low-A level in 2019 and COVID canceling minor league baseball in 2020, Manoah hasn’t thrown many competitive innings since college. However, the potential he has is pretty apparent. In three Triple-A starts this season and 18.0 IP, Manoah has boasted a 0.50 ERA, 3.08 xFIP, 0.56 WHIP, and an electric 40.9% kRate. To state the obvious, there is a major leap going from facing some minor league batting orders and taking the mound against the New York Yankees in Yankee Stadium. But this will essentially be a tryout for Manoah to earn a more cemented spot in the Blue Jays pitching rotation so we’ll see if he can dig in and post up a strong performance. The Yankees have been exactly league average with a 100 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season, they strike out 25.1% of the time (10th most), and they’ll be without a pair of top offensive weapons with DJ LeMahieu placed on the paternity list yesterday and Giancarlo Stanton still on the IL with a quad injury. If the forecast cooperates, Manoah would seem to be a worthy SP2 GPP punt on DK.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ Working under the assumption that every game plays the full nine innings, I’m looking at all four offenses in the following two games as the most favorable teams to stack: Braves @ Red Sox & Reds @ Nationals. Both games also feature double-digit run totals so Vegas is expecting plenty of runs in those match-ups as well.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

There is no love lost between these two organizations. Some off-the-field narrative-driven drama can always help add a little boost or appeal to a particular stack. After a 9-2 victory yesterday, I’d look to go right back to these Dodger bats and I wouldn’t expect them to carry too much ownership either. Luis Garcia has been a steady and serviceable fly ball pitcher who possesses a 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. However, his 4.33 xFIP and .231 BABIP against tells us that he is due for some negative regression. That may happen today considering the Dodgers are tops in baseball against RHPs with a .348 wOBA and a 124 wRC+. Their .276 AVG/.356 wOBA against righties when they have runners in scoring position also ranks 3rd in the league. Garcia hasn’t pitched beyond 5.2 IP in any start this season so the Dodgers could also see a lot of ABs against a Houston bullpen, which has struggled lately. Over the last two weeks, the Astros relievers have posted a 4.97 xFIP -- the third highest mark among bullpens in that span.

San Francisco Giants vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Maybe I’m picking on Merrill Kelly too much. He’s actually producing some quality outings and has pretty much held it together for the last month. He even racked up a career high 12 Ks against the Dodgers last Thursday. I do still expect Kelly to get rocked by a good offense soon because he’s simply shown throughout his career that he is just too prone to allowing a high amount of hard contact (42.1% HardHit% this season). Regardless, the Giants stack is almost always in play for GPPs, especially when they go on the road away from the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. The Giants average 4.19 runs/gm at home but that bumps up to 5.00 runs/gm when they go on the road, making them the 11th highest scoring road offense. In terms of adjusted run factor, Chase Field has been the 7th best hitter’s park this season and San Fran was able to plate eight runs last night out in Arizona. The roof will be open once again with 90 degree temperatures in Phoenix. If the Giants can get to Kelly early, he’ll be backed up by a poor D-Backs bullpen that holds a 4.48 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and 1.43 HR/9 Rate.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Detroit Tigers vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

It’s always best to temper expectations with this Tigers offense but they find themselves with a positive match-up today. Triston McKenzie has strong K upside going for him, but that’s about it. On the season, he has a slate-worst 6.89 ERA, 5.55 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP, 52.9% HardHit%, 94.9 mph average exit velocity, along with a 60.9% Fly Ball Rate. Outside of a couple of starts, he simply has not found much success this year. The Tigers have quite a few lefties they can stack up in the lineup against McKenzie, who gives up a .363 wOBA, .234 ISO, and 1.93 HR/9 to that side of the plate. It’s a good spot for a somewhat improving Detroit offense to potentially plate 5+ runs.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

Damnnnn, Tatis is indeed getting pricey but hopefully that continues to suppress his ownership. He’s officially gone two games without a home run so… HE’S DUE! I know they’re a little banged up but I’m kind of surprised to see the Padres with just a 4.3 implied run total today. I mean… Eric Lauer isn’t *that* good, come on. Since moving to the clean-up spot in the order, Tatis’ already sky-high upside has now breached atmospheric levels. I like the two-man mini-stack with Tatis + Tommy Pham today (assuming Pham is back hitting lead-off). Pham has a .458 OBP over his last five games with a pair of triples, a home run, and a couple of steals resulting in a 194 wRC+. He’s a nice salary saver as well at $3.5k (DK) & $2.7k (FD).

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Freeman is slowly but surely hitting his stride after a highly inconsistent start to the season. He’s batting .294 over the last two weeks with a .386 wOBA, .216 ISO, and a 143 wRC+. Freeman has a nice BvP history against Pivetta, hitting .333 against him in 32 PA. If the game stays dry, there are some nice hitting conditions at Fenway Park today. 

OF Tyler Naquin | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Joe Ross (RHP), WAS

Joe Ross has given up a .396 wOBA, 43.5% HardHit%, and 2.20 HR/9 to lefty hitters. In just 118 PA, Naquin has smacked nine homers off of RHPs this season with a .368 wOBA and 50.0% HardHit%. Naquin will hit clean-up once again for an explosive Reds offense.

2B/OF Enrique Hernandez | OF: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), ATL

I’m staying in the same game as Freeman and hoping they get through all nine today. Look for Hernandez to be a nice, affordable floor option as he bats lead-off for the Red Sox who boast a slate-high 5.6 implied run total. Smyly has surrendered multiple home runs in four of his seven starts this season and has a poor 5.75 xFIP against RHBs.

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Eddie Rosario | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), DET

OF Wil Myers | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

1B/OF Danny Santana | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), ATL

OF Alex Dickerson | DK: $3k, FD: $2.2k |vs Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

2B/SS Owen Miller | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), DET

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Joe Ross (RHP), WAS

I mentioned this above with Naquin, but to run it back: Joe Ross has given up a .396 wOBA, 43.5% HardHit%, and 2.20 HR/9 to lefty hitters. Winker has been a nightmare for righty pitchers in 2021. Against RHPs, he’s batting .370 with a massive .488 wOBA, .370 ISO, 42.6% HardHit%, 33.3% HR/FB%, and has 12 home runs. Hopefully, the worst of the weather stays away from the ballpark tonight because Winker is primed for another huge night.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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