By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Doth my eyes deceive me? Are we being Punk’d by Ashton Kutcher? We finally have a Thursday MLB slate that isn’t some whack three or four gamer! There’s a NINE-GAME slate heading our way this evening -- 10-game slate on FanDuel since they included the NYY/TB game (6:40 ET). But, as usual, this newsletter will focus on the nine mutually shared games today. The slate will feature some pretty decent pitching, pretty decent hitting/stack options, no Coors Field to worry about, and only a game or two where the weather could be an issue. I’ll take that nine times out of ten. Let’s get into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Two games to track closely today: CLE @ DET and PHI @ ATL. It’s probably too early to really know how things are going to play out in either game so, as usual, be sure to check the outlook closer to first pitch.

CLE @ DET (7:10 ET, 7 O/U): Rain will be in the area of the ballpark tonight. If it turns out to be mostly light stuff, they’ll probably play through it. Anything moderately heavy could spark some sort of delay. That brings more risk for starting pitchers but, as of now, it seems like this one *should* play. Not completely guaranteed though.

PHI @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8 O/U): Some storms will be firing around the ATL this evening. Perhaps they get lucky and avoid trouble like they did yesterday, but the risk does seem higher this go ‘round. Definitely check the radar here pre-lock before locking in any players from this game.

MIL @ STL (7:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): A shower or two could roll over the ballpark but nothing that should linger too long. Still, that will bring forth at least some delay/PPD risk, but not a lot (unless there is a significant change in the forecast).

BOS @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Kinda similar to STL. They could get hit by some rain but may end up avoiding trouble entirely.

Note: For now, I’d say the risk in the PHI @ ATL game is high enough to where I will avoid mentioning players from that game in the newsletter.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK | DK: $9k, FD: $8.8k | vs. TEX

Montas has produced some very polarizing results this season -- in nine starts he had four games where he failed to score 10 DKFP/20 FDFP and five games where he scored at least 23 DKFP/40 FDFP. His overall numbers are rock-solid: 3.55 ERA, 2.96 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, and 27.4% kRate with an excellent 13.6% SwStr%. He’s on the mound at home today in the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. Over his career, Montas has typically pitched a bit better at home. The match-up is nice as well. Texas has just a 70 wRC+ and 26.1% kRate when facing RHPs on the road this season. Over the last week, they’ve accounted for a huge 28.0% kRate with an 80 wRC+. We do have to take into account that Montas plays for Oakland so he’s not exactly guaranteed to receive much run support, which makes earning that precious win bonus more unlikely. But the A’s are slight -115 favorites today in a game that carries just a 6.5 O/U.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.9k | vs. TOR

On DraftKings, it’s likely going to be another chalky Ohtani day given his fairly generous $8,700 price tag. But, as usual, the strikeout upside will continue to be hard to pass up. Ohtani leads all pitchers on the slate with his lofty 34.0% kRate and 16.3% kRate. He’s also maintaining a low 2.82 ERA and a slate-best 2.45 xFIP alongside a 1.02 WHIP. The Blue Jays continue to be nothing more than a league-average offense, evidenced by their 97 wRC+ vs. RHPs, which ranks them 17th in the MLB. They have posted a decently high 22.2% kRate as well. While the home/road splits are not very apparent yet this season, Ohtani has historically performed better when pitching on his home turf so that’ll be another positive to tack onto Ohtani today. The Angels are heavy -165 favorites while Toronto carries a low 3.3 implied run total into this match-up.

Konnor Pilkington (LHP), CLE | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | @ DET

If you read these newsletters regularly, you know I love taking a shot on pitchers making spot starts who often come in at or near the stone minimum. While he wasn’t quite as cheap as Pilkington is today, Yankees Wednesday spot starter JP Sears worked out very nicely on yesterday’s slate as a cheap arm, scoring 22.25 DKFP/36 FDFP. Pilkington only has 8.2 IP in four MLB appearances this season, but he did reach an 83 pitch count in his most recent (and first) start back on May 8th. He has since been working as a starter at the Triple-A level, though he has only covered 14.1 IP in four starts -- his minor league numbers are also a bit worrisome: 5.05 ERA, 4.81 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP, 17.5% kRate. That’s a stark difference from the figures he posted across his limited MLB work this season: 2.08 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 30.6% kRate. But today is his chance to prove he has what it takes to stick in an MLB rotation, so will he crumble under the pressure or rise to the occasion? He does draw a plus match-up against a bad Detroit offense (78 wRC+, 24.1% kRate). However, Detroit has not been completely awful against lefty pitching. Against LHPs, they have a 90 wRC+ (ranks 21st) and a 22.9% kRate.

As is often the case with these dirt cheap arms, Pilkington is more of a GPP SP2 option today. It may be a stretch to hope for five or more innings out of him, but if he can cover three or four frames and end his day with a handful of strikeouts while limiting the run damage, that’s likely enough to return strong value on his $4,000 DK salary.

Also Consider:

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.1k | vs. CLE

Martin Perez (LHP), TEX | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.7k | @ OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Minnesota Twins vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

The Twins just saw Lynch on the mound six days ago and they did some decent damage against him. On the year, the Twins have been a top offense against southpaw pitching with a 121 wRC+ vs. LHPs (ranks 4th). Over the last two weeks, they’re hitting .305 with a 135 wRC+ vs. LHPs as well. Lynch has an unimpressive 4.87 xFIP and 1.37 WHIP on the season. He’s also allowing a high 46.5% HardHit% and 49.5% FlyBall Rate. Behind Lynch will be a struggling Royals bullpen that has been pretty bad all year, but even worse recently. Royals relievers have posted a 6.62 ERA, 4.61 xFIP, and 1.61 WHIP over the last two weeks.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Garlick | Sneaky Bat: Gio Urshela

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

Since getting roughed up by the Cardinals back on April 28th, Castellanos has been fairly decent in his four starts since (21.2 IP, 3.32 ERA, 3.43 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP). However, those four starts included two a pair of games against the Marlins and a pair of games against the Cubs… not exactly a tough gauntlet. He’ll have a much more difficult challenge ahead as he faces a Dodgers offense that ranks 1st against RHPs with a 121 wRC+ and .340 team wOBA. The Dodgers have posted a 149 wRC+ and .381 wOBA over the last four games against the Diamondbacks and they’ll carry ample upside in this match-up tonight.

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner | Sneaky Bat: Cody Bellinger

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Colorado Rockies vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Stacking against Patrick Corbin (6.60 ERA, 4.45 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP, .369 opp wOBA) is not exactly sneaky in itself, but most people avoid stacking Rockies bats when they’re playing outside of Coors Field, so that’s why they get the nod in this section. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, the Rockies have played well against LHPs even when on the road this season where they have a .307 AVG, .347 wOBA, and 123 wRC+. Once Corbin’s day is done, a bottom 10 ranked Nationals bullpen will enter the game to handle the remaining innings.

Favorite COL Bats: CJ Cron, Connor Joe, Randall Grichuk | Sneaky Bat: Jose Iglesias

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

2B/SS Trevor Story | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Dallas Kuechel (LHP), CWS

OF Juan Soto | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

2B/OF Ketel Marte | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Mitch White (LHP), LAD

3B Anthony Rendon | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Kiké Hernández | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dallas Kuechel (LHP), CWS

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Pavin Smith | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Mitch White (LHP), LAD

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

3B/SS Gio Urshela | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

2B Luis Rengifo | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

OF Kole Calhoun | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK

OF Kyle Garlick | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

3B Emmanuel Rivera | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Devin Smeltzer (LHP), MIN

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

Mookie got the day off yesterday but that likely won’t stop him from continuing to swing a stick of dynamite at the plate. In the month of May, across 22 games Mookie is batting .341 with a .486 wOBA, .398 ISO, and 217 wRC+. In that May stretch, he has belted nine home runs -- four of which came in his last four games. He’s producing more power against RHPs (.315 ISO) than LHPs (.216 ISO) this season which bodes well given the match-up with RHP Humberto Castellanos tonight. Against RHBs this season, Castellanos has a decently high 35.7% HardContact% and 1.50 HR/9 Rate. The D-Backs bullpen backing Castellanos up is not great either, so Mookie will have a great shot to go yard any time he steps up to the plate in this game. Betts has five home runs in 18 career games played at Chase Field as well.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Martin Perez OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | -125 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

Perez has thrown 106, 96, and 108 pitches over his last three starts. His most recent start was a CGSO against Houston. He received an extra day off so he should be rested up and ready to handle another hefty workload against Oakland tonight. Perez is not exactly a high strikeout pitcher and has only a 19.9% kRate this season. But he has been sharp over his last six starts and has hit the over on this prop four times, including in each of those last three starts where he got the benefit of having a long leash. Unless Perez gets into some big trouble, I don’t imagine he’ll get pulled before he gets into the 90s on his pitch count this evening. The A’s currently have five guys in their projected lineup with at least a 23% kRate vs. LHPs this season, including three guys (Lowrie, Pinder, Brown) with a kRate above 32%. Perez was able to record five Ks against Oakland back on 4/23, and that came on 97 pitches thrown. It’s not a smash play, but he’s a nice bet to get another 5+ Ks in this game tonight as well.

Trea Turner to Steal a Base: YES | +575 (Caesars) | 0.5 Units

It’s well-known that Trea Turner is one of the best base stealers in baseball and after snatching two bags in yesterday’s game, he now has five over his last 11 games. He’s batting .300 with a .379 OBP this month so he could find himself on the basepaths a time or two tonight. Predicting stolen bases is certainly a gamble, but it’s worth taking a shot on this prop with a small wager when the odds are going to return nearly a 6:1 payout.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!