Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 Weekend Edition - On Deck Podcast with Joe & Chris

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Another week in the books. May is flying by and we are really starting to understand how some of these teams and players are shaping up in the 2019 baseball season. We are at the point now, with most players having well over 100 plate appearances, where I'm pretty confident focusing only on the 2019 batting data. The pitcher inning samples are still a bit small so I'm still keeping an eye on the 2018 data but I think it's safe to say, at this point, the 2019 numbers have some meaning to us and need to be weighted fairly heavily in our decision making process. We have a small, rather ugly, five game slate tonight. Here’s a look at all the games from a Vegas perspective:

Weather shouldn't have much of an impact. There's a threat of rain toward the end of the game at Coors but I doubt it effects the game. It's hot in Pittsburgh (81 degrees) and St. Louis (86 degrees) which gives an advantage to the hitters though both of those games are in more pitcher friendly parks. As always, make sure you check for an updated forecast closer to lock.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Hyun-Jin Ryu (DK: $11.4K, FD: $11K) | LHP | at Pittsburgh Pirates

Ryu is pitching out of his mind right now and really the only question at the moment is can he stay healthy? It's a pretty big if given his history. He's now 6-1 in nine starts with 59 strikeouts to just four walks in 59.1 innings pitched. He hasn't allowed an earned run in three straight starts and only three earned runs in his last five starts. His numbers, across the board, are lights out. A 3.02 SIERA, 0.73 WHIP, 27.9% strikeout rate, and 1.4% walk rate. The K/BB ratio is filthy and he hasn't walked a left-handed batter yet this season. He's forcing 47.5% ground balls, has a LOB% of 95.5%, and his opponents have just a .218 wOBA against him. Best part, at least in my opinion, is he's now gone five straight games of at least seven innings including a complete game shutout against the Braves back on May 5th. Ryu also already faced the Pirates once this season, on April 26th, and went seven innings, scattering eight hits but allowing only two runs and striking out 10. The Pirates continue to struggle with left-handed pitching this season, producing only a .279 wOBA, .120 ISO, and 73 wRC+. They also strike out 26.2% of the time against lefties which further adds to Ryu's upside in this spot. Mike Minor is tempting, another player pitching out of his mind at the moment, and he's less expensive (far less expensive on FanDuel where you can really make an argument). But Minor is also facing an Angels team with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball, particularly against lefties, at an impressive 15.9%. You need strikeouts to rack up fantasy points, so I'm paying up for Ryu tonight.

David Price (DK: $8.8K, FD: $8.5K) | LHP | at Houston Astros

It's a five game slate. We have to factor game theory in our decision making on a slate this small. On a 15 game slate, where ownership has way less relevance, you're very unlikely to think about the player facing an offense like Houston. You don't need to force a risky play with so many options available to you. On a five game slate, however, where we really need to be unique, someone like Price can make the difference. It's a brutal match up against arguably the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching. But this also means our opponents are unlikely to play him in their lineups. We have to remember that even the best hitters in the world only get a hit roughly 30% of the time. The pitcher almost always has the advantage and we can often use that to our benefit when playing DFS. Price has been solid this year with a 1.07 WHIP, 28.6% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate. His 3.45 SIERA is aligned with his 3.29 ERA and his .283 BABIP allowed tells us these results are sustainable. We know Price had success against the Astros last season. In two regular season starts, he went 1-0 with a 2.88 xFIP, 12.3 K/9, and just 2.1 BB/9. He split against them in the post season last year with one rough start where he got hit hard in a no decision and one gem where he sealed the Red Sox trip to the World Series with six innings of shutout baseball and nine strikeouts. My point? People are unlikely, even on a small slate, to go here today. They will pay up or pay down and try to avoid a risky match up against the Astros. Price is the most talented pitcher in this mid pricing tier today and we've seen him pitch well in this spot before. He's worth a look in tournaments tonight.

Kyle Freeland (DK: $5.5K, FD: $6K) | LHP | vs. Baltimore Orioles

An ugly slate calls for an ugly pitching recommendation and that's exactly what we have here. Freeland has been bad this season with a 4.97 SIERA and 1.43 WHIP. He has below average 19.7% strikeouts and above average 10.1% walks. He's allowing 43.6% hard contact and just 13.9% soft contact. So, why are we considering this guy? Simple, he's facing the 15-36 Baltimore Orioles who are 1-9 in their last ten games. They have a .295 wOBA, .151 ISO, and 82 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. They also strikeout 27.5% of the time against lefties (fourth most in baseball) and walk only 5.9% of the time against lefties (third fewest in baseball). I don't like using pitchers in Coors. I especially don't like using bad pitchers in Coors. But this is a five game slate and Freeland has himself a solid match up here while being dirt cheap. If he ends up being popular, stay away. But if he goes under the radar, he's an option tonight in this spot. This completely depends on what the rest of the field is doing.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

We only have five games to work with and one of those games is in Coors Field. We know both teams in Coors are in play for stacking purposes. It has a much higher total tonight (12) than any of the other games. Let's look at a couple other options outside of Coors Field:

Atlanta Braves at Dakota Hudson (RHP – St. Louis Cardinals)

Hudson has some pretty dramatic splits that need to be pointed out. He's getting smoked by left-handed hitters with a 5.51 xFIP, 2.25 WHIP, and 13.7% walks. He's allowing 43% hard contact and a .440 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Against right-handed hitters, it's the total opposite, with a solid 3.30 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, and just 5.3% walks. He's allowing a more average 35.1% hard contact rate and opposing righties have only a .251 wOBA against him. Hudson is a high contact pitcher which is great for stacking purposes and only has a 16.4% strikeout rate so far this season. Based on all this, I'm prioritizing the lefties in this lineup with Freeman (.407 wOBA, .241 wOBA), Markakis (.387 wOBA, .186 ISO), Albies (he's much better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching but I still like him with how much Hudson struggles versus lefties), and McCann (assuming he makes the lineup). The Braves have one of the highest implied totals on the board today at five runs.

Texas Rangers at Tyler Skaggs (LHP - Los Angeles Angels)

Logic suggests Tyler Skaggs will be popular today so I'd prefer to have the other side of this match up. Skaggs is a favorite, he pitches better at home, and the Rangers have a low implied total of only 3.7 runs. The industry will talk a lot about the Rangers being a better team at home than they are on the road but this isn't true. At home, in their very hitter friendly ball park, they have a .343 wOBA, .226 ISO, and 100 wRC+. On the road, they have an identical .343 wOBA, a slightly lower but still solid .199 ISO, and a higher 114 wRC+. Very little difference between their performance home or away. The issue with the Rangers is always the same. They are the definition of boom or bust. They have a ton of power but they also strikeout a lot. As long as you can stomach the risk, there is a lot to like here. Gallo (.445 wOBA, .390 ISO, 45.5% hard contact), Pence (.378 wOBA, .297 ISO, 48.3% hard contact), Choo (57.1 % hard contact), Andrus (.368 wOBA, 48.4% hard contact), and Mazara (.381 wOBA, .295 ISO, 41.7% hard contact) all have solid numbers against left-handed pitching this season. If any pitcher gains popularity on a slate this small, you're going to want to give yourself at least some exposure to the other side. I can absolutely see that happening here.

Boston Red Sox at Brad Peacock (RHP – Houston Astros)

Peacock's total body of work is fine. He has a respectable 4.01 SIERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 25.7% strikeouts. But his splits are pretty alarming, and something we should be able to take advantage of here. Against left-handed batters, Peacock has really struggled so far this season. He has a 4.47 xFIP and his GB/FB ratio and soft/hard ratio are both concerning. He's allowing only 33.8% ground balls and a very high 42.6% fly balls. Even worse, he's forcing just 10.3% soft contact and allowing 45.6% hard contact to left-handed hitters. This puts Devers (.391 wOBA, .184 ISO), Moreland (.395 wOBA, .374 ISO), and Benintendi (.345 wOBA) at the top of my priority list today. I'll be watching the Vegas lines on this game very closely. I was surprised to wake up and see the Red Sox as underdogs. I believe the Boston bats have the advantage against Peacock tonight. If the line moves toward Boston throughout the day I'll be heavy on my Red Sox bats and David Price exposure tonight. Keep in mind, Houston is likely to be without Springer (left game early last night) and Altuve.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Cody Bellinger (DK: $5.9K, FD: $4.7K) | 1B/OF | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP)

The Dodgers are another team we haven't talked about who are in a pretty good spot today and can be considered for stacking purposes. At the very least, I'll have interest in pieces of this lineup starting with Bellinger. Musgrove has below average strikeouts against left-handed hitters and forces just 12.2% soft contact. Bellinger has a .620 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching over his last 20 games. As an added bonus, the Pirates bullpen struggles with left-handed hitters, allowing 3.32 FP/PA.

Jake Marisnick (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.2K) | 2B | vs. David Price (LHP)

I'm more on the Boston side of this game but you could look at Marisnick today for some salary relief with upside in tournaments. He's got an impressive .965 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching in his last 20 games which has led to 3.06 FP/PA during that span. With George Springer unlikely to play tonight, it's possible he moves up in the order. He's also dirt cheap on FanDuel at just $2.2K.

Hanser Alberto (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.1K) | 2B/3B | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP)

Right off the bat I have interest because he's relatively inexpensive considering he's playing in Coors tonight. He has three double-digit fantasy performances in his last five games including a monster 36 point night (DK scoring) against the Yankees where he went 4 for 5 with 3 runs score, a home run, and even a stolen base. He has a .640 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 starts against left-handed pitching. The best part is, he fills the second base position where it can often be hard to find upside.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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