By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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It’s another action-packed Tuesday across Major League Baseball with 13 games on tap, so buckle up and let’s ride! This may arguably be the strongest set of pitchers we’ve seen on a single slate since Opening Day. By my count, there are about a dozen pitchers taking the mound tonight who I would consider either very good, borderline elite, or a certified ace. Perhaps the biggest piece of player-specific news on the day is the return of Jacob deGrom. He pitched a rehab start on 5/20 at the Low-A level and torched some hapless minor league hitters across three innings and 41 pitches, allowing zero hits, zero walks, zero runs, and struck out eight. He was also reportedly throwing 102 mph! So… seems like he’s feeling good. Apparently, in terms of a possible pitch count tonight, they’re taking a “play it by ear” approach and just seeing how he feels throughout the game in between innings. I don’t think I’d talk anyone off of paying the premium for deGrom tonight, especially in a great match-up at home against Colorado, but do be aware of the added risk of a potential pitch count coming into play.

On the offensive side of things, there are several low-quality pitchers in line for a start this evening as well. On top of that, certain ballparks will have some nice hitting conditions and 11 of the slate’s 26 teams currently have an implied run total of at least 4.5 runs. Unlike yesterday, this slate should ACTUALLY be a fun one. Alright, good luck and let’s get to it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

CLE @ DET: Winds blowing IN from RF at 10-15 mph. Temps in the mid-80s will help counteract that a bit for hitters, but I’d still perhaps give pitchers a very slight bump.

ATL@BOS: Winds blowing OUT to LF at 15 mph. It won’t be warm (temps in the mid/high 60s) but at the very least it’s not necessarily cold, so batters still get a decent bump.

COL @ NYM: Winds blowing OUT to LF at 10-15 mph.

BAL @ MIN: Winds are set to be blowing OUT mostly to center at 15 mph. Temps in low 80s at first pitch. Bump to bats.

STL @ CWS: Low-end chance of some showers. In-game delay can’t completely be ruled out. Winds mostly blowing IN from RF at 15 mph.

SF @ ARI: Roof at Chase Field is scheduled to be OPEN. Temperatures in Phoenix will be around 90 degrees during the game.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP) | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.2k | vs. SD

The only thing keeping Burnes from likely being mega chalk today is his opponent. The Padres are a top 10 offense against RHPs: .243 AVG (ranks 9th), .317 wOBA (9th), 103 wRC+ (10th), and they strike out at the second-lowest rate in baseball with a 20.4% kRate. Oh, and they also have that Fernando Tatis Jr. guy who can go off for multiple home runs at any time. However, at this point, we may have to start viewing Burnes as a match-up proof ace and he certainly had no problem against the Padres when he pitched against them back on April 20th -- 6.0 IP, 93 pitches, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K, 1 W, 1 QS. A performance that was good enough to earn him a stout 34.5 DKFP/58 FDFP. Across his 40.1 IP this season, the numbers Burnes is putting up are insane: 1.79 ERA, 1.35 xFIP, 0.62 WHIP, 44.7% kRate, 18.5% SwStr%, 1.3% BB%, 51.3% GB%, 23.1% HardHit%, and an opponent .190 wOBA. Really the only other pitcher in the MLB that is putting up closely comparable numbers is Jacob deGoat. Burnes will have a tough counterpart in Joe Musgrove today and Milwaukee is only a slight -124 favorite, but the Padres are expected to be without a couple key pieces in Trent Grisham and Manny Machado. If Burnes can keep their remaining two dangerous hitters (Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth) in check, I don’t see him having much of a problem with the rest of the projected Padres lineup.

Kevin Gausman (RHP) | DK: $7.2k, FD: $10.8k | @ ARI

This is an absolutely massive price discrepancy between DraftKings and FanDuel. Gausman’s DFS salaries make him the 16th most expensive option today on DK, 3rd most expensive on FD. In short, I’d expect Gausman to be a chalky SP2 option on DK and a worthy low-owned GPP pivot on FD. He’s been one of the most consistent pitchers all season, so I absolutely understand why FanDuel has him priced up (though, in my opinion, he’s a tad overpriced). Gausman has allowed more than a single earned run in just one of his nine starts, resulting in an elite 1.66 ERA. His 3.19 xFIP does tell us he is getting a bit lucky, but that’s not a terrible xFIP by any means -- comparable pitchers with a similar xFIP on this slate would be Clayton Kershaw (3.13 xFIP) and Max Scherzer (3.06 xFIP). Gausman also holds a strong 29.6% kRate on the year alongside a 0.80 WHIP and .210 opp wOBA. The D-Backs return home from an absolutely brutal road trip where they dropped eight games in a row… they’re now 3-17 over their last 20 games. Arizona’s 5.33 runs/gm at home does make them the 5th highest scoring home offense and Chase Field can definitely favor hitters, especially when that roof is open. But I’m looking for their road hangover to last at least for one more game when they go up against Gausman and the Giants.

Andrew Heaney (LHP) | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.6k | vs. TEX

By the end of the night, I believe there will be someone in chat who says something along the lines of either “IMAGINE PLAYING ANDREW HEANEY” or “IMAGINE *NOT* PLAYING ANDREW HEANEY.” There isn’t much “in-between” results with this guy. He either puts up a strong fantasy performance or he burns you like the molten hot fillings of a Hot Pocket fresh out of the microwave. Heaney possesses an unattractive 5.31 ERA on the season but his 3.42 xFIP and 3.33 SIERA rank 8th and 7th among the slate’s starting pitchers. He also brings excellent K potential to the table as his 30.5% kRate is bested by only deGrom, Burnes, Scherzer, and Musgrove on this slate. So what’s keeping him from consistently producing strong outings? Well, he’s allowing a high 10.9% Barrel% and a 24.8% Line Drive%. Opponents are hitting him well when they have runners on which has led to a rough 67.0% Left on Base% for Heaney. He also has a high .312 BABIP against him which can be boiled down to simply being a bit unlucky. He’ll draw a pretty friendly opponent today as the Rangers rank among the bottom 10 offenses against LHPs with a .299 wOBA (22nd) and 91 wRC+ (23rd) while striking out 25.1% of the time (10th most). He’s worth a flier in GPPs.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ With 26 teams in play, it’s hard to pin down who will be the high-owned stacks but I see a lot of love going towards the Twins and Braves, and rightfully so. I’d look there if you’re searching for some “safer” bats.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

The Rays return home after a couple of high-scoring series in two very hitter-friendly ballparks (Camden Yards & TD Ballpark) so there is potential for some negative regression. They will get a nice match-up against Brad Keller to open up this series against Kansas City. Keller has a slate-worst 1.84 WHIP this season and he’s striking out just 17.6% of hitters. The Rays 114 wRC+ against RHPs in 2021 trails only the LA Dodgers. It’s a fairly small sample size, but in 48 plate appearances against Keller, this current Rays roster is hitting .270 with a .342 wOBA and just an 8.3% kRate. Keller will also be backed up by a Royals bullpen which ranks inside the bottom 10 in many key metrics. Also, on a somewhat unrelated note, but are the Rays on the quietest 11-game win streak in recent memory?

Oakland Athletics vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

Logan Gilbert is a top pitching prospect for the Mariners and certainly has better days ahead, but he has struggled to adjust to the big league level through his first couple of professional starts. A very small sample size of course (6.2 IP), but Gilbert is allowing a massive 65.2% HardHit% along with a 1.65 WHIP, 52.2% FB%, and 9.4% Barrel%. The A’s struggle to hit for average (.218 AVG vs. RHPs, ranks 26th), but power is not a problem. Their team .183 ISO vs. RHPs this season ranks them 4th in the MLB and they have a league-high 40.7% Fly Ball Rate. The back of their lineup is fairly weak, but I love the XBH potential out of the top half of this A’s order.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), HOU

Greinke is one of those pitchers that has either enough talent or enough name recognition to where most people will avoid stacking against him. But really, Greinke hasn’t been all that great on the season, at least not from a consistency standpoint. The Dodgers also have a league-best 124 wRC+ and .349 wOBA against righty pitchers. While they are not at 100% and will be at least missing a couple of pieces that have helped lead them to those strong offensive numbers, they have enough talented healthy bats that can collectively hang double-digit runs on just about any starting pitcher + bullpen in the league. Despite being one of the better offenses in baseball, I don’t imagine they’ll draw too much ownership today, so there’s decent leverage to be had here in GPPs.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

Cleveland has some stack potential today simply due to Skubal being a poor starting pitcher. But if you’re going the one-off route, Ramirez is seems like the most appealing option on this team… though he’ll cost a pretty penny. Ramirez is struggling over his last few games and, as a switch hitter, he’s been better against RHPs on the season. But Skubal has put up a slate-worst 5.52 xFIP this season alongside a very lofty 55.9% FB%, 11.6% Barrel%, and 2.84 HR/9. Combined with the poor Detroit bullpen, Ramirez will be a pretty good bet to go yard today.

C/1B Buster Posey | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Corbin Martin (RHP), ARI

Posey’s massive 194 wRC+ on the year ranks 4th in the MLB (min. 70 PA). He’s hitting .355 with a .457 wOBA, .290 ISO, and 48.9% HardHit%. We should expect him back in the lineup following a day off in the Giants last game on Sunday. Corbin Martin only has 24.1 IP in the MLB and has produced a poor 5.52 xFIP. He’s also shown some poor reverse splits, allowing a .313 AVG, .491 wOBA, 47.4% HardHit%, and eight HRs in just 11.1 IP vs. RHBs (that’s a 6.35 HR/9 Rate!). It’s a bad recipe for Martin as he steps on the mound against Posey who has had no issues hitting right-handed pitching this year.

1B/OF Alex Kirilloff | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

Great hitting conditions in Minnesota today and with a below average starter on the mound in Kremer, it’s no shocker that the Twins lead the slate with a 5.3 implied run total. Kirilloff should find himself back in the heart of this order tonight which will make him an attractive option. Kremer has had his problems with lefty hitters like Kirilloff this season, allowing a .410 wOBA and .310 ISO to that side of the plate. Just before being sidelined with a wrist injury in early May, Kirilloff was really starting to break out while showing off plenty of power, hitting four homers in a three game stretch. He is 5-for-17 in the four games since his return from the IL, so he’s not showing a ton of rust from his 2 1/2 week layoff. I really like him at these prices tonight.

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

Riley is batting .500 over his last eight games with SIX homers, four doubles, and a 358 wRC+. He garnered “NL Player of the Week” honors as a result of his torrid stretch and I don’t see any reason *not* play him against Richards here. Until he cools off or gets priced up too far, he’s a worthy one-off selection and a centerpiece to any Braves stack.

Value Bats to Consider

1B/OF Danny Santana | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

2B/SS Freddy Galvis | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), MIN

OF Harold Ramirez | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

2B/SS Taylor Walls | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

2B/SS Owen Miller | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Miguel Sano | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

Sano has finally decided it’s time to start raking again. Since May 15th (11 games, 41 at-bats), Sano has smacked out six homers while producing a .512 ISO and a 42.9% HR/FB Rate. He lands inside the 95th percentile of hitters over the last two weeks in both barreled balls (five) and average exit velocity vs. RHPs (98.6 mph). Kremer allows plenty of fly balls (45.8% FB%) and a slate-high 20.4% HR/FB Rate. I give it about a 50/50 shot that Sano belts one out today… and the odds may need to be better than that considering the 15 mph winds blowing out to center and temperatures in the low 80s at the first pitch in Minnesota.

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Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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