By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

It’s an all-day affair in the MLB with games firing off throughout the day which will provide folks with several DFS slates to choose from. Following a wild 12-game Tuesday main slate that was filled with mayhem, things will shrink down drastically with a five-game main slate awaiting on deck this evening. Poor weather could threaten a couple of the match-ups tonight and losing even just one of those games due to a postponement would have a very noticeable impact due to the small slate size. So, do be sure to stay on top of the forecasts once we get closer to lock and adjust accordingly!

Note: The FanDuel main slate will include the two games in the 6:00 ET window, bringing it up to a seven-game main slate. The five mutually shared games between DraftKings and FanDuel will be the focal point of this newsletter.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

We’ll have two games to keep a close eye on this evening.

PHI @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U): Scattered storms look to move through the ATL area throughout the evening. Those storms are expected to be on the lighter side, so it’s possible they just play this one a bit wet. Some sort of delay, or even a postponement, cannot be 100% ruled out at this time so we’ll just have to see what the radar looks like closer to the first pitch.

BOS @ CWS (8:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): More scattered storms will be around in Chicago but it seems as if the worst of the storms will occur pre-game. Could see a late start, could see them play a bit wet as well. And, again, a postponement cannot be completely taken off the table here either. Winds will be blowing IN from center around 10 mph.

Note: While there is some risk involved at this time, I won’t be taking players from either game out of consideration for this newsletter due to weather issues.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.3k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CLE

It’s not a great slate for pitching but if Javier can come close to replicating his success from his last outing, he’ll have a great chance to land in this slate’s optimal lineup. Last Friday, Javier covered six innings on 91 pitches against Texas and held them to a single run on three hits while striking out nine. On the season, he is posting a strong 31.5% kRate with a 12.9% SwStr% while maintaining a 2.87 ERA, 3.49 xFIP, and 1.02 WHIP.

Cleveland’s offense can do some damage but they’ve been stifled quite a bit recently. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, they’re hitting only .207 with a .287 wOBA and 89 wRC+. The Guardians are not an easy team to strike out, with just an 18.8% kRate against righties this season. Javier also allows a high 52.2% Flyball Rate but he has managed to give up only three HRs in 31.1 IP this season (0.86 HR/9, 8.3% HR/FB Rate). His career numbers improve across the board when he takes the mound at home in Houston as well. The Astros check-in with heavy -200 moneyline odds while the Guardians possess a fairly low 3.8 implied run total.

JP Sears (LHP), NYY | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6k | vs. BAL

Sears will be handed his first career start for a Yankees team in need of a spot starter as a result of a doubleheader this past Sunday. Sears has made two scoreless single-inning relief appearances with the big club this season but was sent down to Triple-A in mid-April. He’s been working primarily as a starter in the minor leagues and has put up some very impressive numbers: 21.2 IP, 0.83 ERA, 2.02 xFIP, 0.60 WHIP, .147 opp AVG, 38.5% kRate. It’s always a complete guessing game when it comes to predicting how a pitcher will transfer their dominant minor league numbers into the big leagues, but Sears will have a quality match-up that he could certainly take advantage of today. Baltimore has been pretty awful against lefty pitching this season: .212 AVG, .271 wOBA, 76 wRC+, 26.6% kRate. The Yankees do have a pretty fresh bullpen that they can go to and I would expect Sears’ leash to be fairly short. But if he can deliver four, maybe even five, strong innings and put that big-time strikeout upside on display against a strikeout-prone Orioles offense, then Sears could very well return nice value on these rock-bottom DFS salaries. The Orioles have a low 3.4 implied run total in this game and the Yankees are also moderately strong -160 favorites, so there’s an outside shot Sears could play himself into qualifying for the win in his first career start as well.

Also Consider:

Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.3k | vs. BOS

*Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $9.2k (Turbo Slate), FD: $8.6k | vs. MIA

*FanDuel Main Slate Only

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Glen Otto (RHP), TEX

Otto brings in a slate-worst 5.55 ERA, 4.88 xFIP, and 1.48 WHIP to the table tonight. He’ll be tasked with trying to shut down an Angels offense that leads the MLB with a .189 team ISO vs. RHPs and ranks 3rd with a 121 wRC+. The top four hitters in the Angels current projected lineup (Ohtani, Trout, Rendon, Walsh) all possess at least a .375 wOBA and .201 ISO vs. RHPs on the season. Following Otto will be a pretty mediocre Rangers bullpen that allows plenty of hard contact and has given up the fourth-most HRs this season.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh | Sneaky Bat: Brandon Marsh

Atlanta Braves vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

Remember to watch out for the weather here but if it seems as if they’ll get nine innings played this evening, the Braves may be worth some stack consideration. They’re an above-average offense versus LHPs with a 105 wRC+ (ranks 11th) and they’re a power-driven team that has come away with a .181 ISO against LHPs (ranks 4th). Their big issue is strikeouts (27.7% kRate vs. LHPs). However, Suarez has not been producing many of those with his below average 19.0% kRate and 8.2% SwStr%. Suarez has also allowed a 90.1% Contact% on pitches inside the zone. Atlanta has produced an average of 1.2 runs more per game when playing at home as opposed to on the road. The Phillies bullpen has had plenty of issues as well -- their 1.45 WHIP on the year ranks second-worst in the MLB.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Travis d’Arnaud | Sneaky Bat: Dansby Swanson

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

The hot streak will end at some point but for right now, Boston continues to be the best offense in baseball over the last 1-2 weeks. They have put up a massive 181 wRC+ in the last seven days, and 156 wRC+ over the last two weeks. And they lit up a talented pitcher in Dylan Cease yesterday for eight hits and seven runs before going on to finish the game with 16 runs on 19 hits. People will still avoid stacking them up since they’ll be going up against the slate’s best pitcher, Lucas Giolito. Giolito may very well shut them down tonight… I mean, it wasn’t all too long ago that Boston was a team we’d actively target with starting pitchers. But, on a small slate, going with some Boston bats would be one way to gain some leverage against the field.

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, JD Martinez | Sneaky Bat: Christian Vazquez

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BOS

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

SS Tim Anderson | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

C Mitch Garver | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Brandon Marsh | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

OF AJ Pollock | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

3B/SS Ramon Urias | DK: $3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), NYY

OF Kole Calhoun | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

1B/OF Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), NYY

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

Yeah, so just give me an easy HR call today. Trout has hit six HRs vs. RHPs in his last 20 games. Glenn Otto has shown some poor reverse splits this season. Against RHBs, he’s allowing a .358 wOBA, .197 ISO, and 17.6% HR/FB Rate. The Rangers bullpen has also accounted for a 14.8% HR/FB Rate (2nd highest) this season. Really, Mike Trout isn’t someone I have to “sell” anyone on when it comes to his home run potential, but he is in a terrific spot to mash his 13th dinger of the season.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Tim Anderson OVER 1.5 Total Bases (from hits) | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Anderson not only has a five-game hitting streak going, but he also has a five-game MULTIPLE hitting streak going. His .389 BABIP on the season may be viewed as unsustainable by some, but the truth is, the guy just has an uncanny ability to “hit it where they ain’t.” He’s hitting a whopping .519 against LHPs this season and will get two or three at-bats against southpaw Rich Hill today. Hill is allowing a moderately high .277 AVG and .339 wOBA to RHBs, so I’d look for Anderson to keep his multiple hit streak rolling -- or at the very least, he’ll have a nice chance to cash this bet off of a double or a dinger.

Mike Trout OVER 1.5 Total Bases (from hits) | +100 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Trout has cashed the over on 1.5 total bases (from hits) in five of his last six games, so getting this at even money is too juicy to pass up. The Angels find themselves at home tonight facing a below-average starter in Glenn Otto. Trout has 28 hits in 73 at-bats at home this season -- good for a mammoth .384 average. Of those 28 hits, 16 have gone for extra bases (7 doubles, 1 triple, 8 HRs). If he doesn’t record multiple hits in this game, it seems likely he’ll at least get an XBH on the board. Of course, he is my home run call of the day as well so I’ll be hoping for a little more than a couple of bloop singles or a double smacked into the gap. But I’ll take the over on 1.5 bases however Trout would like to deliver it. 

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!