Top MLB DFS Plays 5/24 | Navigating Friday’s Massive Slate

May 24, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

As per usual, Friday will test our ability to cover the bases with in-depth research across a massive amount of games. This evening is headlined by several high-end pitchers and we also have Coors Field back on the menu as the Rockies are returning home from their 12-day road trip. If you’re a Rockies hitter, it doesn’t get much sweeter than facing a historically bad Orioles pitching staff and you can pretty much assume a large percentage of DFS players will be looking to get guys like Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story into their lineups -- hard to blame ‘em. But there are plenty of other prime spots that several offenses find themselves in tonight, so let’s get going and find some plays that could add to your weekend beer fund!

Today’s match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

NYY @ KC: There is a flash flood warning issued in Kansas City, as heavy rain is set to move in throughout the day. By first pitch, the worst batches of rain should be gone but scattered storms could still be en route over the stadium. Very real possibility of postponement here so keep an eye out for afternoon updates. I’ll consider the situation risky enough to where I will skip mentioning any players from this game.

ATL @ STL: Temps will be well into the 80's throughout this game with 10 mph winds blowing out to left. Advantage: hitters.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jose Berrios (DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.9k) | RHP | MIN vs. CWS

The seven highest priced pitchers on both sites are essentially in a tier of their own and you could make a strong argument for spending up on any of them. Berrios has a comparable ceiling to any other of today’s options. He is reasonably priced, has a positive pitcher’s match-up, and is playing at home where he tends to be a safer investment. Through ten starts, Berrios has an even sample size of five games on the road and five games at home. While his home/road splits aren’t as drastic as they were in 2018, he’s still been noticeably better when pitching at Target Field. In 33 home innings, he has a 3.00 ERA, 3.92 xFIP, .284 wOBA, 1.12 WHIP, and a 24.4% kRate. He’s shown great plate control at home by only issuing 1.36 BB/9 (3.7% Walk Rate). The White Sox bats have been giving plenty of fantasy production to right-handed pitchers lately. This month, against RHPs, they have a .284 wOBA, 76 wRC+, and a league-high 29.2% kRate. Despite Berrios struggling in his last two starts against the Angels and Mariners, he seems to be a nice floor/ceiling option to roll with today. The Twins are heavy -200 home favorites and the White Sox have a 4.0 run implied total.

Noah Syndergaard (DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.6k) | RHP | NYM vs. DET

Highlighting a pair of pricey pitchers because the grouping of mid-range options honestly looks like a straight up minefield. Thor has shown some struggles through his ten starts this season but he’s posted much better splits at home, which of course is where he’ll be today. In 27 home innings, his 3.67 ERA is nearly a run and a half lower than on the road (5.11 ERA) and, in other metrics, he is allowing just a .211 AVG, .257 wOBA, 0.96 WHIP, paired with a much more Syndergaard-esque 27% kRate. Detroit has been statistically the worst offense against RHPs this month: .208 AVG, .255 wOBA, 55 wRC+ with a 25% kRate. As I’m sure everyone is aware of, no pitcher is ever immune to getting blown up, but Detroit has hardly been capable of stringing together runs against opposing pitchers who are fourth or fifth in their team’s rotation. The Mets are currently the heaviest favorite on the slate at -280 and the Tigers have a lowly 3.0 implied run total.

Trent Thornton (DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.1k) | RHP | TOR vs. SDP

In search of a pitcher that can provide some salary relief, the options today are shaky at best. But, at least on DK, if you’re trying to pay up for some Rockies bats, you may have to inherit some risk by dropping pretty far down at your SP2 position and I feel that Thornton has a better-than-average shot at a productive day against a very righty-heavy Padres lineup. Thornton is holding RHBs to a .210 AVG and .271 wOBA. The Padres offense has the second highest strikeout rate against RHPs with a 27% kRate along with a .299 wOBA and 88 wRC+. Thornton’s produced at least 16 DKFP/31 FDFP in four of his last five games and the Padres have scored over five runs just once in their last 13 games. Good chance at some value with Thornton this evening.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field Notice: The Rockies (6.4 implied runs) and Orioles (5.6 implied runs) should be considered high-end stacks today and will not be highlighted below.

Minnesota Twins (LHBs) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP | CWS)

Expected Ownership: Medium/High

I’ve been looking to stack these Minnesota lefties all week and I won’t stop now. But quickly, how sad is it that the game two nights ago had to be PPD due to just 0.06 inches of rain falling on the field in Anaheim? When your field is deemed “unplayable” due to 0.06 inches of rain, it’s time to make some field renovations. The Twins went on to smack eight homers and score 16 runs in the make-up game yesterday, which of course wasn’t available for DFS action (outside of single game contests). Unfortunate. Anyhow, if you’ve read the newsletters throughout the week, you’ve seen me reiterate how much the Twins smash righties with a league-leading .268 ISO this month. We’re looking to target the LHBs in the Twins order, and Reynaldo Lopez has shown plenty of struggles to that side of the plate this season. Versus LHBs, he’s allowing a .306 AVG, .405 wOBA, .222 ISO and 2.00 HR/9. Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, and Marwin Gonzalez are all strong plays once again this evening.

St. Louis Cardinal vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP | ATL)

Expected Ownership: Medium

Foltynewicz… more like… Faultynewicz, right…? Hm. Dumb forced puns aside, he’s been pretty terrible this year: 6.91 ERA, 5.36 SIERA, .377 wOBA, 14.1% kRate, and he’s allowing 41.1% Hard Contact with a 47.3% FB Rate leading to 23.3% HR/FB. In his start against St. Louis just 10 days ago he got lit up for three homers and eight earned runs across just 4.2 innings. If the Cardinals force an early exit from Foltynewicz again, they’ll see plenty of innings against a Braves bullpen that has been below average this year. Some Cardinals bats that have been running hot against righties over the last month include Paul DeJong (.360 wOBA, .133 ISO, .402 OBP), Dexter Fowler (.378 wOBA, .200 ISO, .414 OBP), and slugger Marcell Ozuna (.348 wOBA, .287 ISO).

New York Mets vs. Gregory Soto (LHP | DET)

Expected Ownership: Low/Medium

It’s tough to say just how chalky a Mets stack may be, but they’re breaking out of their slump after scoring at least five runs in four straight games. They will likely be rolling out nine righties against the rookie lefty pitcher, Gregory Soto. He only has 10 professional innings to his name but he is off to a rough start, as he has posted a 10.80 ERA, 5.96 SIERA, .381 AVG, .440 wOBA with just a 13.8% kRate. The leash will be pretty short with him and I’d be surprised if he stays on the mound for more than four innings. After he is done for the day, the Detroit bullpen will be deployed and they have been truly awful. Over the last 30 days, the Tigers relievers have a 7.22 ERA, 5.14 SIERA, .305 AVG, 1.82 WHIP and 2.08 HR/9 with just a 16% kRate. They pretty easily rank dead last in the league in each one of those categories. Pete Alonso (.450 wOBA, .488 ISO vs. LHP) may be low-hanging fruit but he is my home run call of the night. 💣💥 Elsewhere, JD Davis (.332 wOBA, .273 ISO vs. LHP) and Todd Frazier (.372 wOBA vs. LHP, very limited sample size) both look like suitable plays to grab on the cheap.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Freddie Freeman (DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.3k) | 1B | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP | STL)

It would seem that Mikolas is getting some early buzz across the DFS landscape and could be setting up to land on the chalkier side of ownership. If that is the case, paying up for someone like Freeman in tournaments could be a smart way to pivot and snag some leverage. Mikolas has shown pretty awful splits against LHBs this season and is allowing a .391 wOBA and .281 ISO. Seven of his ten home runs allowed have been off the bats of lefties (in seven fewer innings pitched against righties). Freeman is working with a .421 wOBA and .245 ISO against RHPs this year and he’s running hot after hitting five homers within his previous eight games.

Marcus Semien (DK: $4k, FD: $3.5k) | OF | vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP | SEA)

There’s no question that Trevor Story will be the chalk at short stop this evening but for major salary relief and ownership leverage, Semien has been heating up and is a guy who will rarely deliver a goose egg performance. He has a .309 wOBA and .174 ISO against LHPs this season. Not dominant numbers but they could get bolstered when facing Wade Miley who is getting tagged up by righties this season, allowing a massive .457 wOBA and .344 ISO. Miley has given up six home runs to RHBs across just 13.1 innings. I really like an Athletics stack in general tonight, but for a reliable source of fantasy production in the way of a one-off hitter or part of a two-man stack, Semien makes a lot of sense.

Steve Pearce (DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k) | 1B/OF | vs. Wade Miley (LHP | HOU)

Pearce’s numbers in limited action versus LHPs this season aren’t all that great: .242 wOBA, .114 ISO. But he is coming off of a 3-for-5 performance yesterday with three RBI and he hit his first homer of the year. Also, it’s not unreasonable to expect some positive regression coming from him soon considering against lefties last season, he posted a superb .407 wOBA and .255 ISO. Miley has been pretty decent this year but has a .318 wOBA, .175 ISO split against RHBs. Not terrible but not great. Pearce also has a pair of home runs and an .884 wOBA+ISO in 17 plate appearances against Miley and could slide into the fifth spot in the order once again today. He would be a very cost-effective way to to gain some exposure to a strong Red Sox offense.

Much better long term R/L splits

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