By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

Be sure to subscribe to the LineStar YouTube channel! New video podcast episodes drop Monday-Friday featuring hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown

Happy Tuesday everyone! We have a fully loaded 12-game main slate heading at us this evening. At first glance, there are several stud pitchers worth paying up for today along with some nice value arms to choose from that will help you jam in the big bats. Since the pitcher pool is so talented, I’m not sure if we’ll see a ton of offenses break the slate open tonight, but I would imagine about a half-dozen or so teams will come away with 5-10 runs and a good number of hits. We’ll see how things shake out once these games get going but, for now, let’s try to land on some juicy DFS plays!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Atlanta is looking like the primary spot to watch out for today.

PHI @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): Scattered storms will be in the ATL area tonight. At this time, it’s a pure guessing game on whether or not those storms will roll over or come too close to the ballpark, so just keep an eye on this one and see what the radar looks like closer to lock.

DET @ MIN (7:40 ET, 8 O/U): Winds blowing IN from center around 10 mph.

TOR @ STL (7:45 ET, 7 O/U): Low chance of rain throughout this game, rain chances increase late. They should be expected to get this game in, however, and may end up playing the entire game dry. Winds blowing IN from right at 10 mph.

BOS @ CWS (8:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to right near 15 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.6k | vs. BOS

Given the torrid rate at which Cease is striking out batters this season, it would seem foolish to not at least consider him for GPPs today. Let’s get the concerning stuff out of the way: first, Boston has not been an easy team to strike out this season with only a 20.2% kRate vs. RHPs (5th lowest). They’re also arguably the hottest offense in the league right now with a massive 162 wRC+ and .395 team wOBA over the last week (15.9% kRate in that span as well). Winds will also be blowing out in Chicago tonight near 15 mph.

Now the positives: Cease has racked up at least eight strikeouts in seven of eight starts this season -- several of those performances came against other low strikeout offenses, including an eight K outing on 101 pitches versus this same Boston team back on May 7th. Over his last five starts (27.2 IP), Cease has an absolutely ridiculous 42.1% kRate going along with a 2.92 ERA, 2.33 xFIP, and 1.12 WHIP. Cease has also put up his best numbers at home: 44.3% kRate, 0.88 WHIP, 2.07 xFIP. The White Sox will be heavy -165 favorites while the Red Sox carry a low 3.3 implied run total. So, while there are some concerns to be had with Cease, he should draw notable consideration, especially at sub-$10k DFS salaries.

Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.8k | @ WAS

Despite his 12.7% Swinging Strike Rate representing a career-high number, Buehler’s strikeouts have been noticeably down this season. Currently, he holds a career low 20.1% kRate over his first eight starts in 2022. Considering the increased SwStr% and the fact that he has never finished a season with a kRate lower than 26.0%, we have to assume that some positive strikeout regression will arrive soon for Buehler. Elsewhere, he has posted solid, albeit unspectacular numbers: 2.89 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, .294 opp wOBA.

Washington owns a low 20.8% kRate vs. RHPs with a near league-average 98 wRC+. But they’ve been head-scratchingly bad at home this season where they are averaging only 2.71 runs/gm (2nd lowest) and possess a league-worst 64 wRC+ vs. RHPs along with an increased 23.0% kRate. If those poor home splits continue for the Nationals, Buehler should be able to post a strong fantasy score in this game today. The Dodgers (-220) come in as one of the heaviest favorites on the slate and Washington is being pinned with a somewhat generous 3.7 implied run total.

Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k | vs. DET

The slate is loaded with viable pitchers at every price point but Gray sticks out in a big way, especially at his sub-$7k salary on DK. While working his way back to having a fully extended leash, Gray has pitched very well in his three most recent outings: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 2.34 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP, 33.3% kRate. Of course, it helps to face off with Oakland twice in that three-game stretch. However, Detroit is essentially the same level of “bad” and many of their offensive metrics vs. RHPs are nearly identical to Oakland’s. On the season, they have a 73 wRC+ with a .265 wOBA, .098 ISO, and a 24.3% kRate.

Gray threw a season-high 84 pitches in his last outing six days ago so we may very well see him push for 90 pitches today. The Twins are also the heaviest favorites of the slate with -260 odds -- you rarely see a talented starting pitcher be this cheap when they have such crazy good winning odds as well. Perhaps if the Twins were matched up with the Yankees or Dodgers, I’d get it… but the Tigers? He should be expected to have a nice game today. He’ll carry extremely high ownership over on DraftKings since he is clearly the go-to SP2 option today. With such great potential to surpass 20 DKFP, it’s going to be tough to completely fade a $6,800 Sonny Gray. However, if you want to pivot away from Gray in GPPs but still want a cheap arm, George Kirby ($6k/$7k) looks like a nice speculative play against the MLB’s worst offense.

Also Consider:

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.6k | @ SD

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.9k | vs. KC

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Minnesota Twins vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

I hope this doesn’t come off as lazy since I had this written up yesterday. Beau Brieske was initially the expected starter for Detroit before Elvin Rodriguez was announced as the confirmed starter later in the afternoon. With Brieske now the confirmed starter today, not much has changed on the outlook of the Twins offense tonight. So, I’m just going to repost what I had written up initially yesterday, with some slight updates.

The Twins bats have been rolling lately and they come into this game having averaged 8.2 runs/gm over their last five and have a 134 wRC+ over the last week (ranks 3rd). Brieske is an inexperienced pitcher with only five major league starts and 26.1 IP under his belt. He’s been particularly bad in righty-on-righty situations. Against 62 RHBs this season, he’s allowing a .296 AVG, .401 wOBA, .278 ISO with a 6.11 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, and 2.70 HR/9 Rate. You don’t have to target only RHBs when stacking up the Twins, but they do appear to have the upper hand in the splits department. The Detroit bullpen has been surprisingly good this season and their .194 opp AVG is the lowest in baseball. However, some luck has factored into their success. The .237 BABIP against them should normalize sooner rather than later and their 3.96 xFIP ranks as the 9th worst in the MLB.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Gary Sanchez, Max Kepler | Sneaky Bat: Gilberto Celestino

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

If you’re gunning for a “big bat-heavy” lineup build, several Dodger hitters may be able to pay off their lofty price tags today. They’ll face off with Josiah Gray, who certainly has some big league pitches in his arsenal, but he’s also getting hit hard while allowing a high flyball rate -- not the best recipe for success against this lethal Dodgers lineup. Gray has allowed a high 14.8% Barrel% along with a 42.6% HardHit% and a 50.4% Flyball%. This is a trend that carried over from his debut season last year -- across 114.0 IP in the MLB, Gray has accrued a 2.21 HR/9 Rate. The Dodgers come in leading all of baseball with a 123 wRC+ vs. RHPs and they rank 4th with a 41.7% HardHit%. A mediocre at best Nationals bullpen will look to handle the remaining innings once Gray is forced off the mound.

Favorite LAD Bats: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Trea Turner | Sneaky Bat: Edwin Rios

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

On such a large slate, you don’t have to go too crazy by attacking one of those high-caliber pitchers to find a potential leverage stack. The primary Angels bats are all quite expensive so I do imagine that will keep many folks off of them, despite their immense upside. Tonight will be the third time the Angels will have faced Dane Dunning this season, and it’s the second time in six days they’ll get to see his pitches. Dunning has kept the Angels offense in check, giving up just two runs in each of his previous two outings against them. Dunning has proven to be a solid starter this season but if he doesn’t have his absolute best stuff tonight, the Angels could very easily jump on him and force a mediocre Rangers bullpen to take over early. LAA ranks 3rd with a 120 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season and they lead the MLB with a lofty .190 ISO while posting a 14.9% HR/FB Rate (2nd best). I believe we’ll see some moderately low (<15%) ownership on most of these bats tonight.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Bruce Zimmermann (LHP), BAL

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), PHI

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

C Gary Sanchez | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

1B Christian Walker | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Max Kepler | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

OF Pavin Smith | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $3k, FD: $3k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

OF Alek Thomas | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

OF Kole Calhoun | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA

1B/3B Edwin Rios | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

2B Jed Lowrie | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Gilberto Celestino | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Gary Sanchez | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

Sanchez was given the day off yesterday ( but he’s back in the lineup and batting clean-up today. Over the last two weeks, Sanchez has hit six barreled balls and posted an average exit velocity of 94.6 mph, placing him in the 95th percentile of MLB hitters in both categories. Sanchez and the Twins go up against the inexperienced Beau Brieske today, who has displayed some growing pains while adjusting to life in the MLB. As noted in the stack section, Brieske’s poor reverse splits have been quite noticeable early on. Against 62 RHBs this season, he’s allowing a .296 AVG, .401 wOBA, .278 ISO with a 6.11 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, and 2.70 HR/9 Rate. It was a slow start to the season for Sanchez but he has been swinging a hot bat lately so let’s hope he carries his recent success into this match-up with Brieske and the Tigers tonight.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Sonny Gray OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | -142 (Caesars) | 2.5 Units

Bonus: Sonny Gray to Record a Win: Yes | +125 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

There is no question, Gray will be the chalk SP2 of the day on DraftKings, but for good reason. He’s ramping back up to a full workload following an 84 pitch outing last Wednesday and he has racked up an impressive 33.3% kRate over his last three games. Seven of the hitters in the Tigers (confirmed) lineup have posted *at least* a 28.6% kRate vs. RHPs this season. If Gray is going to handle around a 90 pitch count tonight, it’d be a real surprise if he doesn’t record at least six strikeouts along the way. I also love Gray’s +125 odds (DraftKings) to record a win in this game and will be throwing a 2.0 unit bet on that as well.

Gilberto Celestino OVER 0.5 Singles | -110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 units

If it wasn’t for a couple of games (on 5/7 and 5/12) where Celestino came in to pinch hit and failed to record a hit in those two at-bats, he would be tied for the MLB lead with a 16-game active hitting streak. In 36 at-bats against RHPs this season, he is hitting .389. Out of his 14 hits against RHPs, 12 have been singles. Beau Brieske is allowing a lofty .296 AVG to RHBs this season and, even out of the six hole, I’d expect Celestino to get at least two cracks at Brieske in this game.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!