Top MLB DFS Plays 5/24 | Cracking Open a Monday Six-Pack

May 24, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Hope you guys had a great weekend and, man, what a wild one it was in the world of sports. Between being enthralled by Phil’s run to a historic victory at the PGA Championship, witnessing some wild NBA playoff games, and tuning in to a few select premiere baseball match-ups, I think I just about grew roots into the couch. The MLB will kick off the workweek with a six-pack of games for our evening main slate. Pitchers definitely have the upper hand today and there are viable DFS options pretty much anywhere you look top to bottom in the salary hierarchy. Three of the six games currently possess a total of 7.5 runs or lower while only four individual teams have an implied run total above 4.5 runs. This is a peculiar slate waiting on deck for us tonight but it should be a fun one nonetheless, so let’s dive on in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

COL @ NYM: Winds blowing OUT to left at 10 mph.

CLE @ DET: Small possibility of a passing shower which could result in a delay. But it is more than likely that this one plays without issue.

BAL @ MIN: This is the primary game to track this evening. Odds are that they can start this game on time as normal but rain chances pick up as the game progresses. Seems like a PPD is unlikely but definitely can’t rule out a delay, particularly in the mid/late innings.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Blake Snell (LHP) | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.3k | @ MIL

Between Blake Snell, Brandon Woodruff ($10.6k/$10.7k), and Lance Lynn ($9.3k/$10k) we have a strong trio of high-end pitchers to choose from if you’re looking to spend up. And no disrespect to John Means ($10.2k, $9.1k) but I’m not really interested in paying those kind of salaries for him against a tough opponent, on top of the risk of an in-game weather delay. I’d look for Snell to be the preferred cash play and likely the highest-owned stud tonight for two obvious reasons: he’s the cheapest of the ‘big three’ and he has the most favorable match-up. Milwaukee rolls out a ton of lefty hitters and Snell has allowed LHBs just a .098 AVG and .154 wOBA on the season with possessing an elite 42.2% kRate. In 123 plate appearances over the last two weeks against southpaws, the Brewers are hitting .154 with a .228 wOBA and a measly 41 wRC+. Snell’s primary issue this season has been giving up free passes to first base and his 13.7% BB% is the highest mark on the slate. As a result, he hasn’t been pitching far into games. However, in his last start (vs. COL) he issued just one walk across six innings and struck out 11 batters. If he can continue to show improved control over the plate, he has a great chance to be the highest fantasy scoring pitcher on the slate.

David Peterson (LHP) | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | vs. COL

Peterson’s 4.97 ERA may cause people to stray away from him today but he’s been a better pitcher than what that ERA would indicate. His 3.12 xFIP and 3.42 SIERA both rank second among the slate’s starting pitchers behind only Brandon Woodruff (2.98 xFIP, 3.15 SIERA) -- so it is fair to assume that Peterson has been getting quite unlucky up to this point. Peterson has also boasted a strong 28.9% kRate across 38.0 IP this year and he’s producing a high 52.6% Ground Ball Rate. When the Rockies are on the road away from Coors Field, they’re hitting just .216 against LHPs with a .271 wOBA and 68 wRC+ while striking out a league-high 31.9% of the time. There’s a strong chance we can get around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP out of Peterson today.

Austin Gomber (LHP) | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7k | @ NYM

If you look at Gomber’s opponents, he has truly run the gauntlet against some of the league’s toughest offenses: Dodgers (twice), Giants (twice), Astros, Padres (twice), and his other two remaining starts came on the road against the D-Backs (hitter’s park) and the Cardinals, which aren’t the easiest spots either. Honestly, that may actually be the most difficult set of opponents I’ve seen a starting pitcher have to endure thus far this season. Gomber has actually pitched very well in all but one or two of those games, routinely going five or six innings deep and throwing 5-to-7 strikeouts along the way… and don’t forget, when he isn’t taking the mound on the road, he has to pitch at Coors Field! The Mets have struggled to score runs this season and their 3.45 runs/gm rank 29th in the league ahead of only the Pittsburgh Pirates (3.35 runs/gm). Their primary offensive metrics against lefties place them in the bottom half of the league. While Austin Gomber and David Peterson are not household names, Vegas is looking for this to be a sneaky pitcher’s duel and the 6.5 implied run total in this game is the lowest of the day. Sure, the fact that the Mets and Rockies offenses are just downright bad has a heavy impact on the low total as well… but that doesn’t negate the fact that both SPs could end up being quality DFS options today. They won’t break the bank either.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ The Orioles and White Sox have what appear to be the best match-ups today. Many of those hitters *should* provide a strong floor + upside combination in lineups.

Detroit Tigers vs. Sam Hentges (LHP), CLE

The Tigers could very well be considered a “top stack” today as well, simply because they’re all cheap bats -- only one hitter in the projected lineup on DK (Grossman) is priced above $3,700 and none are priced above $2,900 on FD. Detroit’s 4.6 implied run total is also the 4th highest among today’s offenses. On the season, Detroit ranks out pretty much dead last against lefties, but they’ve picked it up in recent weeks. In the month of May, they’ve been more of an average/slightly above average offense against LHPs -- .264 AVG (ranks 11th), .313 wOBA (14th), 99 wRC+ (14th). Hentges has only thrown 15.1 innings worth of MLB baseball, so he has plenty of time to improve. But as of now, Hentges is arguably the lowest quality starting pitcher on the slate. Through his 15.1 innings, he has posted a 6.46 ERA, 5.54 xFIP, 2.09 WHIP, and is allowing a .446 wOBA. Hentges may only be tasked with throwing four or five innings, maximum, and will be backed up by a strong Cleveland bullpen but I could see the Tigers plating around five or six runs today quite easily. Working under that assumption, I believe at least four or five of the Detroit hitters will have solid fantasy scores by the time it’s all said and done.

Oakland Athletics vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), SEA

Man, so many lefties on the bump today. I’ve got respect for Kikuchi as a pitcher and he’s performed well in the majority of his starts this season. However, Oakland is one of the more dangerous offenses in the league against lefties -- their 119 wRC+ ranks 4th in the MLB. They’re also swinging some hot bats as they’ve plated at least five runs in six of their last nine games. Kikuchi is more of a ground ball specialist (48.8% GB%) who has also seen an uptick in both his swinging strike rate (13.7%) and overall strike rate (26.4%) this season. However, one thing he still struggles with is giving up power. He’s allowing a high 46.9% HardHit% with an average exit velocity of 91.1 mph. When opposing hitters can get under a ball against Kikuchi, it has resulted in a 24.3% HR/FB rate as well. That could be a recipe for success for Oakland, whose team .197 ISO vs. LHPs ranks second in baseball and their 40.2% FB% vs. LHPs ranks third.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Cleveland Indians vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), DET

Cleveland has been a bottom 10 offense this season and they’re facing the ‘mighty’ Spencer Turnbull coming off of a no-hitter, so I doubt many people are looking their direction today even on a smaller slate. Despite the no-hitter, Turnbull is far from an elite pitcher and while he has a 2.88 ERA on the season, his 3.86 xFIP is nothing special. He’s due for some regression as the current .247 BABIP against him is unsustainable (compared to his career .310 BABIP). I still don’t think I’d go crazy with this Cleveland stack and might only look to target three or four guys. Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Jordan Luplow, and Cesar Hernandez have been the better hitters in this lineup against RHPs this season (Franmil Reyes too, but he’s currently riding the 10-day IL) so I’d likely start there.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL

Uhh, so what exactly did COVID do to this man? Make him stronger or something? In the four games since being reinstated from the C-19 IL, Tatis has gone a casual 11-for-14 (.789) with a 92.3% HardHit%, eight XBH (four doubles, four HRs), 12 RBIs, seven runs, and has stolen three bags. His 597 wRC+ in those four games is comical -- he basically produced as much offensive production as six average MLB hitters combined. It’s a tough match-up with the slate’s best pitcher in Woodruff, but this might be your chance to get Tatis at (somewhat) low ownership.

3B Josh Donaldson | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

I nearly highlighted the Twins in the stack section considering they’re a top 10 offense against lefties and Means hasn’t exactly dominated on a consistent basis this year. But Donaldson is a standout one-off target out of this lineup. He’s batting .323 against LHPs on the season with a .432 wOBA, .226 ISO, and 180 wRC+. He’s also rocking a lofty .447 OBP thanks to his 18.4% walk rate.

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Matt Shoemaker (RHP), MIL

Santander has gone 6-for-13 with a pair of doubles and a homer in the three games since his return off the IL with an ankle injury. Shoemaker has been pretty terrible this season, particularly against lefty hitters to whom he is allowing a .312 AVG, .413 wOBA, .260 ISO, and 2.55 HR/9. Santander has struggled with striking out this season (27.6% kRate). Fortunately for him, Shoemaker has a paltry 13.5% kRate vs. LHBs along with a terrible 6.42 xFIP. Santander should be batting clean-up once again as well, so if you’re not stacking the O’s, he makes as much sense as a one-off target (or part of a mini-stack) as anyone else in the lineup.

Value Bats to Consider

2B/SS Freddy Galvis | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Matt Shoemaker (RHP), MIL

C/OF Eric Haase | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Sam Hentges (LHP), CLE

1B Miguel Cabrera | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Sam Hentges (LHP), CLE

C Tomas Nido | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B/OF Andrew Vaughn | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Kwang Hyun Kim (LHP), STL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C/OF Eric Haase | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Sam Hentges (LHP), CLE

Going with a bit of a wild card today. Haase hasn’t received a ton of opportunities at the MLB level and has only appeared in 34 big league games. However, his positional flexibility should produce plenty of consistent playing time moving forward. Haase is a dude who exhibited plenty of power at multiple minor league levels, routinely producing between a .200 and .300+ ISO. In his 2019 stint in Triple-A, he smacked out 28 HRs in just 102 games. His two home runs this season both came in the same game a week ago, but they were both at the expense of left-handed pitchers. His average exit velocity of 98.6 mph over the last two weeks also puts him in the 95th percentile of MLB hitters. He may only get a couple of cracks at the struggling Hentges, but I see a strong possibility that he goes yard today.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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