By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

I hope everyone had a stellar weekend! And shout out to Roland aka ZeroInDenver for covering the Friday MLB newsletter! We get back to the grind this Monday with a healthy 10-game main slate. Overall, the pitching options for the slate are underwhelming but we’ve certainly seen worse. Plenty of offenses are in strong spots and seven teams currently carry an implied total of at least 4.5 runs. There will be one game (LAD @ WAS) that we’ll need to keep an eye on as far as weather goes, otherwise, it’s looking like a pretty clear day across the rest of the ballparks. Let’s get the work week started off right and get some nice cash rolling in this evening!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Washington will be the main trouble spot to look out for today.

LAD @ WAS (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Scattered rainstorms will be in the DC area throughout this game and are expected to get a bit heavier as the evening passes. Any kind of delay could easily lead to a postponement so do be sure to keep your eye on this game leading up to lock.

Note: For now, the risk seems high enough here to where I’ll choose to avoid mentioning any player from this game in the newsletter.

PHI @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): Rain will be in the area during the afternoon but should move out by first pitch. There is some potential for a late start if that rain lingers longer than expected, but once they get underway, there should be no further issues.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k | vs. BAL

We’re looking at a super chalky Gerrit Cole on the mound tonight but if you want the safest option on the board, he should be able to deliver. We’ve been seeing the “good version” of Cole for the last month and he’s been locked in across his previous five starts: 32.1 IP, 1.67 ERA, 2.22 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, 30.3% kRate.

He will be facing the same Baltimore team for the second time within a span of five days, which can be a disadvantage for the pitcher. Other than that, this match-up with the O’s shouldn’t be viewed as a difficult one. At best, they’ve been an average offense against RHPs -- their 97 wRC+ ranks 17th and they provide a decently high 22.3% kRate when facing righties. Cole didn’t have his best stuff against them last Wednesday as he only racked up five strikeouts and allowed a pair of runs on six hits. It was still a start that was good enough to earn him 22.2 DKFP/40 FDFP and that almost feels like his floor heading into this evening’s match-up. The Yankees are absolute monster favorites with -320 moneyline odds and the O’s possess a slate-low 3.0 implied run total.

Alex Cobb (RHP), SF | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.2k | vs. NYM

Some may look at Cobb’s surface stats, like his 5.61 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and .286 opp AVG, and want to stay away. However, he has simply fallen victim to the BABIP monster with opposing hitters enjoying an unsustainably high .394 BABIP against Cobb. Cobb’s 2.36 xFIP and 2.55 SIERA are the best figures on this slate so he has certainly pitched much better than his ERA and other stats would indicate. While Cobb is thought of as more of a groundball pitcher (69.4% GB% this year) he has also been racking up the Ks with a 28.1% kRate on the season. He’ll also be back at home in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park where he has a terrific 34.3% kRate in four home starts this season.

The Mets won’t represent the juiciest of match-ups as they come in with a 117 wRC+ vs. RHPs (ranks 7th) with a league-low 18.8% kRate. However, they’ve been much more of a league-average offense lately with a 102 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last 14 days (ranks 16th). Strikeouts will still be hard to come by in this match-up but it’s not as if we’re shelling out a huge chunk of salary on him in this $7k price range. The Giants are moderately strong -150 favorites and the Mets are being pinned with a low 3.4 implied run total (tied for the third-lowest total on the slate). I believe we can be on the lookout for a solid bounce-back performance for Cobb following his most recent outing at Coors Field where things got pretty ‘Coors-y’ for him.

Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $8.2k | vs. OAK

Gonzales should be more of an option on DraftKings where his $5,300 price tag makes him an appealing, albeit somewhat risky, SP2 candidate. Gonzales has had a rocky season but he’s also faced off with some pretty stiff competition and is coming off of two starts where he held a pair of solid offenses (NYM & TOR) to a single run apiece over 6+ innings of work. He takes the mound at home tonight where he has a 2.65 ERA this season with a 1.24 WHIP and a not-extremely-terrible 4.50 xFIP. The strikeout upside is low with Marco (14.1% kRate, 6.1% SwStr%) but, again, at $5,300 on DK, you don’t need too much to return value. The A’s rank 19th with a 94 wRC+ vs. LHPs and have a high 24.5% kRate with a low .215 batting average. The Mariners are strong -170 favorites to win tonight and Oakland has a meager 3.1 implied run total. 16 hitters cost more than Gonzales on the DraftKings slate. If he can provide around 15 DKFP in this game, I believe we’d happily take that if it leads to unlocking a ton of big bats or a pricey stack like the Yankees or Astros.

Also Consider:

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.3k | @ ATL

Chris Archer (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.4k, FD: $6.8k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Note: If the weather looks like it will cooperate in Washington, the Dodgers are in a nice stack-worthy spot against RHP Joan Adon.

Obligatory NYY Stack: New York Yankees vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

You probably know the deal by now. A Yankees stack is always going to be in play for the foreseeable future. Jordan Lyles held them mostly in check last week but in 119 PA, the Yankees have a .295 AVG against Lyles and will get to see his stuff for the second time within the last five days.

Minnesota Twins vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

The Twins bats have been rolling lately and they come into this game having averaged 9.0 runs/gm over their last four and have a 135 wRC+ over the last week (ranks 3rd). Brieske is an inexperienced starter with only five major league starts and 26.1 IP under his belt. He’s been particularly bad in righty-on-righty situations. Against 62 RHBs this season, he’s allowing a .296 AVG, .401 wOBA, .278 ISO with a 6.11 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, and 2.70 HR/9 Rate. You don’t have to target only RHBs when stacking up the Twins, but they do appear to have the upper hand in the splits department. The Detroit bullpen has been surprisingly good this season and their .194 opp AVG is the lowest in baseball. However, some luck has factored into their success. The .237 BABIP against them should normalize sooner rather than later and their 3.96 xFIP ranks as the 9th highest in the MLB.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler | Sneaky Bat: Trevor Larnach

EDIT: Elvin Rodriguez is now the starting pitcher for DET. Elvin is a righty who has a 3.56 ERA in the minors this year but had a 5.68 ERA last year. He has only had 2.2 innings in the MLB and allowed 4 earned runs and a .273 average during that outing.

Seattle Mariners vs. Zach Logue (LHP), OAK

On an unrelated note, WHY are there so many MLB pitchers named Zach/Zack/Zac and why couldn’t their parents all agree to go with one consensus spelling?

The Zach we’ll look to attack today will be Oakland lefty Zach Logue. Across his 17.2 IP this season, Logue has pitched his way to a very respectable 2.04 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and .232 opp AVG. However, his lackluster 4.71 xFIP and 4.57 SIERA hint at some potential incoming regression. Logue has allowed a fairly high 38.9% HardHit% along with a 10.9% Barrel%. He has only surrendered two home runs up to this point but the fact that he is allowing a high 55.6% Flyball Rate means some more dingers may be incoming. Following a 10-game road trip, the Mariners play their first game at home in quite a while. On the season, their 133 wRC+ at home ranks 1st in the MLB and they’re averaging 4.81 runs/gm at home as opposed to 3.35 runs/gm on the road. Behind Logue will be an A’s bullpen that ranks inside the bottom 10 in many primary pitching metrics.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Ty France | Sneaky Bat: Mike Ford

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Let’s see if those Jose Berrios home/road splits happen to come into play today. Berrios has notoriously struggled on the road for much of his career and that seems to be how things are trending with his new Blue Jays team as well. In 21.0 IP on the road this season, Berrios has accounted for a 6.43 ERA, 4.77 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, .300 opp AVG, .377 opp wOBA, and 1.71 HR/9 Rate. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been excellent at home where they’ve averaged 5.06 runs/gm and have a 113 wRC+ vs. RHPs. St. Louis is also a team that pitchers have a ton of trouble striking out. The Cardinals and their 18.9% kRate vs. RHPs is the second-lowest kRate in the MLB. Berrios has not been much of a strikeout pitcher to begin with this season (15.3% kRate, 7.9% SwStr%) and he’s posting career-high contact numbers. We should expect the Cardinals to put the bat on the ball quite a bit in this game and if those batted balls find the right gaps, things may get ugly in a hurry for Berrios.

Favorite STL Bats: Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado | Sneaky Bat: Brendan Donovan

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

*OF Mookie Betts | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

1B Anthony Rizzo | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

OF Nick Castellanos | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Tucker Davidson (LHP), ATL

*Keep an eye on the weather report

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

2B/SS Brendan Donovan | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Zach Logue (LHP), OAK

OF Max Kepler | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

*1B/3B Edwin Rios | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

3B Emmanuel Rivera | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

OF Kyle Isbel | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

1B Mike Ford | DK: $2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Zach Logue (LHP), OAK

C Adley Rutschman | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

*Keep an eye on the weather report

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

After getting the day off yesterday, Buxton returns to the top of the Twins lineup tonight. The occasional rest days have worked out nicely for Buxton who has homered in four games this season following a day off. Buxton is only hitting for a .203 AVG against RHPs this season but he has homered six times in 69 at-bats against righties (averaging a homer every 11.5 ABs). He has also produced a huge .319 ISO vs. RHPs as well. As mentioned in the stack section, against 62 RHBs faced this season, Beau Brieske is allowing a .296 AVG, .401 wOBA, and .278 ISO with a 6.11 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, and 2.70 HR/9 Rate. Nine of Buxton’s 11 HRs this season have come at home, which is where the Twins will be tonight, so let’s look for him to yam another one out of the park.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Alex Cobb OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | -130 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units

The Mets are a very tough offense to strikeout (18.8% kRate vs. RHPs this season, lowest in MLB) but they do still have some guys in their projected lineup that can strikeout regularly (Tomas Nido, JD Davis, Eduardo Escobar all have at least a 23% kRate vs. RHPs). Cobb has posted an excellent 34.3% kRate at home this season and is coming off of a season-high 92 pitches thrown in his last game. Getting to five or six Ks should be highly doable tonight as long as his pitch count continues to hover in the 90s. The -130 odds on o4.5 Ks appear to be a solid value.

Ronald Acuna Jr. OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases | +340 (DraftKings) | 1.0 Unit

Runs will likely be hard to come by for Atlanta against Zack Wheeler tonight (ATL: 3.9 implied run total) so I’ll be looking out for some aggressive base running out of Acuna in this game. Acuna is hitting .300 against Wheeler in 31 career plate appearances, so I do like his chances of at least getting on base a time or two today. And Acuna has successfully stolen a base in six out of his last eight games, so there has been very little hesitation on his end when he sees an opportunity for a free bag. I’m liking the price of these odds at +340, especially when Acuna has been so aggressive on the pads lately.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!