Top MLB DFS Plays 5/21 | ‘Tier Two’ Pitchers in Great Spots Tonight

May 21, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

Another massive Tuesday slate has arrived with 28 MLB teams on the itinerary for our main slate. If you’re on the hunt to fit in quality offenses in great spots, like the Yankees, Astros, Rangers, Mariners, or Twins, then it seems this is a great slate to take that approach. This just doesn’t seem like a slate where you should feel too much pressure to pay up at pitcher. Several quality arms, who are second or third in their team’s respective rotation, have some favorable opponent draws tonight and should churn out some nice value, allowing us to fit in some bigger bats. This is a jam-packed day so let’s get to it!

Today’s match-ups with totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

KC @ STL: This game will require most of our attention, weather-wise. There is a very high chance of long-lasting rain moving into the area around an hour or so after first pitch. An in-game delay is very likely and there’s a risk that, if they don’t postpone early, the game would have to be cut short and perhaps finished out tomorrow. Add in the fact that 20 mph winds will be blowing in from right field and this just turns into a major “stay away” spot for me. The forecast could change later but for the purposes of this newsletter I will avoid mentioning anyone from this game.

PHI @ CHC: Very slight risk of a shower that could lead to a delay but all indications lead to this one playing. Cool temps and wind blowing in from right at ~20 mph. In those sort of conditions, I don’t have much interest in the bats on either side.

SEA @ TEX: Temps around 80 throughout. Your typical good Texas hitting weather in a great hitter’s park. Their game yesterday saw 19 runs and seven homers, but in slightly warmer and more humid conditions.

ATL @ SF: Oracle Park mitigates most of the usual windy San Francisco conditions but 20+ mph winds out to center field could be strong enough to have some positive affect on hitting.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

German Marquez (DK: $9.2k, FD: $8.2k) | RHP | COL @ PIT

As I mentioned in the intro, I don’t think you should feel forced to spend up on pitching tonight. Verlander and Greinke are in good spots, but I just think you can get similar production for a sizable discount elsewhere. Caleb Smith has quickly become one of my favorite pitchers in the league, and by all means should be fine for tonight. But Detroit has quietly been the third best offense versus lefties this month (124 wRC+) so that gives me some hesitation when paying his price tag.

Speaking towards Marquez, I think this is a good spot to use him away from Coors Field and against a poor offense. The Pirates offense ranks 25th in scoring with just 3.84 runs/game this season and, on the road, Marquez has shown some really strong splits: 2.55 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, .179 AVG, .223 wOBA, 0.79 WHIP and a 26.7% kRate. Pittsburgh does have a ton of lefties and switch hitters to deploy which has helped them to the seventh lowest strikeout rate to righties (20.7%), which limits some of Marquez’s upside. But in all other major offensive categories, they rank well within the bottom half of the league. This game will carry one of the lower totals of the night (7.5 runs) and the Rockies are slight -115 favorites with the Pirates holding a 3.5 implied run total.

Eduardo Rodriguez (DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.9k) | LHP | BOS @ TOR

Taking lefties against Toronto has been a profitable venture all year. The Blue Jays have rivaled the offensive ineptitude of teams like the Marlins and Giants when it comes to match-ups with southpaws. This season, against LHPs, Toronto has a .229 AVG (26th), .268 wOBA (28th), .107 ISO (29th), and 66 wRC+ (29th) while striking out a healthy 25.3% of the time. They’re also only averaging 3.14 runs/game at home this season (28th). Rodriguez isn’t quite a good enough pitcher to consider him “match-up proof” but he’s had some nice success in his three other games this season against bottom ten offenses (BAL, DET, CHW). Across 18.2 innings in those games, he allowed four total runs while racking up 21 punch outs. This is a promising spot for Rodriguez and he has that strong Boston lineup that is always capable of backing him up with some run support.

Spencer Turnbull (DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.6k) | RHP | DET vs. MIA

Turnbull has been solid this season and will get the best match-up a pitcher could ask for. Sure, you could make the argument that the Marlins offense suffers from having to play in an extremely pitcher-friendly home park, but their numbers on the road (which they will be on the road tonight) are arguably worse! Against RHPs on the road this season (510 plate appearances) they have a .209 AVG, .249 wOBA, .082 ISO, and 52 wRC+. Think about that 52 wRC+ for a moment. It means they are nearly 50% worse than league average offensively. Turnbull has been a nice source of value for much of the season and overall he has allowed a .224 AVG, .297 wOBA, and 1.25 WHIP paired with a perfectly acceptable 23.7% kRate. Any pitcher can get blown up at any time but it’s hard to imagine many scenarios where Turnbull wouldn’t churn out a steady, productive outing tonight.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Globe Life Park Notice: As usual, with a game total currently at 11.5 runs out in Arlington, both the Rangers (6.1 implied runs) and Mariners (5.4 implied runs) are in excellent offensive spots. If you can afford them, stack away.

Minnesota Twins (LHBs) vs. Trevor Cahill (RHP - Los Angeles Angels)

Expected ownership: Medium

A Twins stack didn’t exactly pan out yesterday but I wouldn’t hesitate to go back to the well, especially to utilize some of the lefty bats against Trevor Cahill’s extreme splits. Here are Cahill’s averages versus LHBs this season in 17.1 IP (89 batters faced): .350 AVG, .455 wOBA, .313 ISO, .416 OBP, 1.96 WHIP, 2.60 HR/9, 12.4% kRate with a 5.97 xFIP. From top to bottom, those are some of the worst splits you will see a starting MLB pitcher have. Given, the sample size is relatively small, but even across his career he has shown some pretty extreme splits against lefties. So that will put Jorge Polanco (.432 wOBA, .290 ISO), Eddie Rosario (.327 wOBA, .243 ISO), and Max Kepler (.359 wOBA, .250 ISO) on the radar. Catcher Jason Castro (.443 wOBA, .431 ISO) also has a ton of power versus righties, as all seven of his homers have come against them this year.

New York Mets vs. Erick Fedde (RHP - Washington Nationals)

Expected Ownership: Low

There are a lot of more obvious stacks to roll out today, so I’m looking to suggest a couple contrarian options in these final two spots. Fedde is getting the spot start and has been ‘fine’ in limited action this season: 10.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 4.40 SIERA, 1.03 WHIP, 17.1% kRate. But those are numbers from coming out of the bullpen, typically in advantageous situations, and even then they really aren’t all that impressive. But he may only pitch two to four innings, so the main reasoning behind this Mets stack recommendation is the opportunity they may have to see a bunch of this terrible Washington bullpen. The Nats relievers have been bad all season but let’s take a look at their numbers over the last two weeks: 6.42 ERA, 4.58 SIERA, 18.9% kRate, 1.57 WHIP, and 2.21 HR/9 Rate. If a starting pitcher had those numbers then the opposing team would be one of the most popular stacks of the day. Now they’re forcing one of their better relievers, Fedde, into the starting role which will leave their bullpen even more shorthanded. The Mets will once again be without Michael Conforto (concussion) so let’s look at three other guys that have had the most success over the last month: Pete Alonso (.334 wOBA, .290 ISO), Jeff McNeil (.356 wOBA, .394 OBP), and Ahmed Rosario (.319 wOBA, .163 ISO).

San Francisco Giants vs. Julio Teheran (RHP - Atlanta Braves)

Expected Ownership: Low

Ack! I know, the Giants? This isn’t backed by extreme confidence and I wouldn’t be rolling out four or five man Giants stacks here… but two, maybe three guys? Sure. It’d provide some nice salary relief and Teheran has struggled more away from home this season. On the road, Teheran has a 4.96 ERA, 5.20 xFIP, .300 wOBA, 1.29 WHIP, and a 22.1% kRate. Nothing disastrous but a definite drop from his numbers at home. The Giants, bad as they may be, have not been awful against RHPs lately. This month against righties, the Giants have a .318 wOBA, .207 ISO, and 102 wRC+. Fairly average numbers (though, their ISO ranks 5th in that period of time), but much improved over their season long averages. Also, remember that the Braves have a pretty weak bullpen so there should be some opportunities for San Francisco to do some damage late. Here are a trio of bats that have been hot over the last month and all have >125 wRC+ Ratings in that time: Pablo Sandoval (.436 wOBA, .424 ISO), Brandon Belt (.361 wOBA, .246 ISO), and Joe Panik (.356 wOBA, .383 OBP).

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Eugenio Suarez 💣💥 (DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k) | 3B | vs. Gio Gonzalez (LHP)

Suarez cooled off recently in the Reds’ three game series versus the Dodgers but in the prior weeks he had one of the hottest bats going. This is a great spot for him to quickly bounce back (at low ownership) as he’ll face the lefty, Gio Gonzalez. Against lefties this season, Suarez has mashed with a .432 wOBA and .351 ISO with a crushing 52% Hard Contact Rate and 48% Fly Ball Rate. I don’t think many people will be looking to target the Reds this evening and you can get their most dangerous hitter at single digit ownership. Suarez will be my home run call of the night!

Rafael Devers (DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k) | 3B | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP)

Apologies for the back-to-back third baseman recommendations, but I just like the spot Devers is in as well and he’s very affordable across both sites. If you’re not utilizing LineStar’s “Batter Statcast Splits (2 Weeks)” advanced sorter, you definitely need to start. You can find plenty of great plays this way. Devers stands out as a mid-priced guy who has made a ton of hard contact recently -- 63.3% Hard Contact to be exact, as well as five barreled balls, and an average exit velocity of 98.2 mph. Stroman has a slate-high 92.7% Z-Contact% so Devers has a decent shot at getting ahold of one deep against him. Devers has also been really solid versus RHPs all season with a .328 AVG, .376 wOBA, and .410 OBP. He’s a great option to target in the middle of the order playing in a top 10 offense.

Carson Kelly (DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.6k) | C | vs. Matt Strahm (LHP)

Kelly has some of the most extreme splits you would ever see from any hitter. He’s a career .320 hitter versus lefties, .151 versus righties. This year, his splits against LHPs are even more extreme: .462 AVG, .610 wOBA, .538 ISO. Given, this is across just 30 plate appearances so take that as you will. Strahm is a reverse splits pitcher, so lefties tend to do better against him in general. So this may hurt the chances of Kelly (who is a righty) finding success tonight. But the power and effectiveness that Kelly has shown against LHPs across his career may be worth the risk.

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