Top MLB DFS Plays 5/21 | Getting The Full Monty on a Friday

May 21, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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TGIF! Who else is ready to hunker down on the couch with a few beers or a cocktail and watch the wide array of sports we have to choose from this weekend? NBA Playoffs, Stanley Cup Playoffs, the PGA Championship, and, of course, some good ole fashioned baseball games are all on the menu this weekend -- should be a great time for us sports fans! As for our MLB main slate on this fine Friday, we’re getting the whole-shebang thrown at us so limber up and prepare to run the gauntlet. All 30 teams are in action this evening and without any immediate weather concerns, it would appear that we’re guaranteed, at minimum, 135 innings worth of baseball action. Good luck tonight, LineStar fam!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

As alluded to in the intro, somehow there are no PPD threats today! A few games have some notable wind & temperatures worth mentioning. Since there are quite a few, I won’t mention every single game that will be played in warm 80+ degree temperatures tonight, so be sure to check the Daily Dashboard if you want to get a glance at all of those match-ups where hitters could get a slight bump.

BOS @ PHI: Temps around 80 at first pitch with winds blowing OUT to center at 10 mph.

TB @ TOR: Temps in the low 80s with winds blowing left to right, perhaps a bit in from left at times, near 20 mph. Even if those winds turn inward, this is still an awesome hitter’s park regardless of weather conditions.

ARI @ COL: Temps in the mid-70s with winds blowing OUT 15-20 mph. As if you needed more incentive to look for offense here, Coors Field has solid hitting weather tonight.

OAK @ LAA: Winds blowing OUT to center/left at 10-15 mph.

LAD @ SF: Winds blowing OUT to center at 10-15 mph. Temps will be in the 50s at Oracle Park (which is designed to negate some of the wind factors) so not much of a bump to bats here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP) | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.4k | @ NYY

There are plenty of excellent pitchers to choose from today but the majority of them draw some tricky match-ups which may limit upside. This match-up for Rodon doesn’t seem ideal either… but can we all agree that the Yankees offense has been just been average, at best, lately? I’m aware they have been missing some key pieces, Giancarlo Stanton being a gigantic one, but they’ve scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last 11 games. Rodon is coming off of his worst start of the season but, overall, he’s having a terrific year: 1.47 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 33.8% kRate, 16.0% SwStr%, 0.87 WHIP, .222 opp wOBA. The Yankees are an above average team versus LHPs (105 wRC+, ranks 11th) and they don’t strike out very much (20.8% kRate) but I just love Rodon’s potential as a GPP pivot off of guys like Bauer, Glasnow, Nola, and Ian Anderson today. Which, by the way, if you want the safer "cash" pitchers, look towards Bauer and perhaps Ian Anderson. Chris Paddack is probably too cheap on FanDuel as well at $6,300.

Mike Minor (LHP) | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.6k | vs. DET

I don’t love the mid-range options today but at the very least you have a relatively serviceable left-handed pitcher here in Mike Minor who draws the Detroit match-up. Detroit has been dreadful against LHPs this season, hitting just .201 with a .251 wOBA, .080 ISO, 58 wRC+, and a 33.7% kRate -- all of those numbers rank them dead last in the league by a comfortable margin. They have been considerably better against lefties in the last couple weeks (.255 AVG, .325 wOBA, .133 ISO, 108 wRC+), and just a better offense in general, but they’ve still be striking out with a high 30.1% kRate in that stretch. Minor has a respectable 1.19 WHIP and 24.4% kRate on the year behind a sub-par 4.55 xFIP. While he isn’t consistently crushing it in fantasy scoring this season, he had one of his best games of the season when he faced Detroit back on April 23rd. In that game, he threw 102 pitches across 5.2 IP while allowing two earned runs on four hits and struck out nine, resulting in 27.2 DKFP/44 FDFP. I’d love to see anything resembling a repeat performance out of him today.

Tyler Ivey (RHP) | DK: $4.8k, FD: N/A | @ TEX

It’s pretty much a flip of the coin on whether or not these near-minimum priced pitchers work out, especially when they’re making their MLB debuts. But it happens pretty regularly when a team calls up one of their top pitching prospects to make a spot start or vie for a spot in the rotation. FanDuel often doesn’t have the fresh faces listed in their player pool, but you can usually get these guys at <$5k on DraftKings and they routinely end up returning 15 to 20+ DKFP (e.g. James Kaprielian scoring 21.1 DKFPin his debut @BOS on 5/12 when he was $4,500). To state the obvious, it’s absolutely a risk rolling out these young pitchers because you don’t know what kind of leash they’ll have on their pitch count, especially if they get into a situation with runners on and less than two outs. Houston is well-known to have a strong pitching farm system and looking through Ivey’s minor league stats, he’s posted at least a 25% kRate at every level where he’s pitched 35+ innings while also accounting for a sub 3.20 xFIP. The Rangers are a bottom 10 offense versus RHPs and if we can squeeze five innings out of Ivey at $4,800, maybe he grabs 5-to-7 Ks and hits that 20 DKFP threshold. It’s a GPP only SP2 play but you can get plenty of big bats if you take the gamble on this guy.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ Yeah, I know it’s the “fish” play but, even on a full 15-game slate, with the positive hitting conditions at Coors Field, the Rockies and Diamondbacks should draw plenty of consideration tonight. The Nationals as well as the scorching hot Rays would be my other more obvious offenses to target.

Chicago White Sox vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

If you play MLB DFS on the regular, you already know the deal… the White Sox crush lefties. “Crush” may be putting it lightly. They’re tops in baseball against southpaw pitching and it really isn’t even close. On the season vs. LHPs they’re rocking a team .297 AVG, .372 wOBA, .189 ISO, and a 142 wRC+. That wRC+ essentially tells us that they’re a whopping 42% better versus lefties than the *average* MLB offense. In what is currently a seemingly “deadball era” where pitchers have the upper hand, Chicago is breaking the mold (at least against the southpaws). Jordan Montgomery is a serviceable MLB starting pitcher but plenty of left-handed pitchers who could be considered better than him have been shredded when they run into the buzzsaw that is the White Sox offense.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

I’m actually liking pieces of both offenses in this game especially considering, like much of the country, the temperatures are warming up and getting into the 80s out in Cincinnati. On top of that, Great American Ballpark has ranked 4th in terms of adjusted run factor this season and 1st overall in home run factor. Cincy struggled in their recent four-game home series against the Giants, losing all four games against what has turned out to be a surprisingly strong pitching staff. But on the year, they rank as one of the best home offenses in baseball and have averaged exactly six runs per game. Adrian Houser has been solid this season and is forcing a tremendous 60.2% Ground Ball Rate along with a respectable 3.35 xFIP and 1.31 WHIP. However, when teams can get some fly balls against him, it has resulted in a 25.0% HR/FB Rate. If they can knock Houser around early and force an early exit, the Reds will get some extra at-bats against a Milwaukee bullpen that has a league-high 1.94 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks along with a 5.83 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB

If you haven’t done so already, it’s time to consider the temporary home of the Toronto Blue Jays (TD Ballpark in Dunedin, FL) as just a rung or two below Coors Field in terms of how much of an advantage the venue gives to hitters. It is no major coincidence that Toronto leads the league in run production at home this season, averaging 6.12 runs/gm. Tyler Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in baseball and is well on his way to being in the AL Cy Young discussion alongside guys like Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber. But his numbers have taken a bit of a dip when going on the road this season (don’t get me wrong, he’s still been *really* good). But even the best Blue Jay hitters will likely only be, at most, 2-3% owned tonight and some crazy things can happen in this ballpark no matter who is hurling on the bump.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Randy Dobnak (RHP), MIN

Not counting the high-end Coors Field bats, Ramirez should land squarely on your radar especially as a one-off target on an otherwise struggling Cleveland offense. It was a bit of an up-and-down start to the year for Ramirez, but over his last 30 games dating back to April 15th, he’s been absolutely raking: .283 AVG, .423 wOBA, .368 ISO, 173 wRC+. In that span, he’s hit 10 HRs, 7 doubles, a triple, and has five stolen bases.

OF Randy Arozerena | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), TOR

If you dip Arozarena’s bat into a barrel of water, it might just start boiling. His last seven games he is batting .387 with a .527 wOBA, .419 ISO, 250 wRC+, with a 51.9% HardHit%. The man is 7-for-11 with three homers, a double, and eight RBIs over his last two games! He travels from a good hitter’s park in Baltimore down to an excellent hitter’s park in Dunedin, FL. He’s another pricey non-Coors bat to give strong consideration towards today.

1B/2B Jake Cronenworth | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

Cronenworth’s .478 wOBA over the last two weeks ranks 8th in the MLB in that span and he’s batting .413 with a 208 wRC+. He should be back in the three hole tonight and when you’re surrounded by guys like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Trent Grisham in the lineup, you have a ton of RBI + runs scored upside.

C Omar Narvaez | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jeff Hoffman (RHP), CIN

I mentioned above how I like both sides of this game in Cincinnati from a scoring perspective due to the advantageous hitting environment. Narvaez could be batting clean-up for the Brew Crew tonight and he routinely gives RHPs fits. Over his last 20 games, he’s averaging .347 with a 124 wRC+ against righties and with Christian Yelich back in the lineup, there should be some additional RBI upside for Narvaez.

Value Bats to Consider:

1B/3B Josh Fuentes | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Seth Frankoff (RHP), ARI

1B/2B Johnathan Schoop | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), KC

2B/OF Luis Arraez | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Seth Frankoff (RHP), ARI

1B/OF Andrew Vaughn | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL

Welp… Freddie Freeman had his chances but couldn’t quite keep the HR call streak alive but we’ll try for a 4-for-5 week here with a pretty straightforward pick. Schwarbo has five homers in his last 11 games so we’re basically looking at a 50/50 shot of him homering if that trend keeps up (note: I know that’s not how baseball works, hah). Schwarber has a monstrous 45.5% HR/FB Rate over the last two weeks and Jorge Lopez happens to surrender a high 26.7% HR/FB Rate. The amount of fly balls Lopez allows isn’t overly high (30.0% FB%) but if Schwarber gets under one, with the power he’s producing lately, there’s a strong possibility it sails over the fence.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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