Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 5/20 "On Deck" Podcast feat. Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Monday’s eight game main slate looks to have several curve balls in store for us. After doing some preliminary research last night and an early wake up to get a jump start on this newsletter (currently 5:30 am ET), we are still waiting on totals for four games. This is due to the existence of several murky pitching situations that will have to be cleared up later in the day. So, for now, I am just going to focus on recommended plays that won’t be backed by too much uncertainty (if that makes sense).

Today’s games with the current game totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

I’m not seeing much threat of rain anywhere tonight but there are some warm temperatures to make note of where fly balls could travel a bit further.

NYY @ BAL: Low 80's for much of this game.

WAS @ NYM: Low 80's, winds blowing out 10-15 mph.

SEA @ TEX: Nearly 90 degrees at first pitch -- mid 80s throughout! Winds blowing in at 20+ mph are mitigated by the stadium design and can actually help fly balls travel outward.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Mike Soroka (DK: $9.2k, FD: $10k) | RHP | ATL @ SF

As surprising as it may be, the Mets are actually the third best offense against lefties at home (139 wRC+) so a little uncertainty surrounds Patrick Corbin when you’re looking at the top of pitcher pricing. Not as if that completely knocks him out of play, considering the Mets are coming off of back-to-back shutout losses to Miami, but I definitely like Soroka’s floor a bit better. The Giants have some really poor numbers against righties this season, particularly when they play at home in their pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, and they rank last in offensive production across several categories: .196 AVG (last), .258 wOBA (last), .135 ISO (27th), and a 64 wRC+ (last). Their 26.3% kRate is also the 5th highest rate so there is quite a bit of fantasy production to be had by Soroka here. Soroka has posted a minuscule 0.98 ERA, though he doesn’t exactly back that up too well with a 4.12 SIERA. Still, he is holding opponent batters to a .176 AVG and .234 wOBA paired with a 1.01 WHIP. After combining for just seven strikeouts in his last two starts against tougher opponents (D-backs & Cardinals), I would expect him to jump on this positive match-up in a good environment and have a strong outing with upwards of seven or eight strikeout opportunities. 

JA Happ (DK: $8k, FD: $8.3k) | LHP | NYY @ BAL

Happ is a bit of a tough sell but he has several things going for him today. He’s rounding into better form after an inconsistent start to the season. He gets a positive match-up with a chance to bolster his sub-20% kRate. And he has a nice shot at earning that sweet, sweet DFS “win bonus” as the Yankees are heavy -200 favorites. In his last five starts in which he has a combined 30 innings pitched, Happ has posted a 2.70 ERA while allowing a .196 AVG, .263 wOBA, and 0.90 WHIP. In this time he only has a 17.4% kRate but Baltimore is a team that strikes out a ton against lefties. The Orioles have a 28% kRate against southpaws this season to go with a .233 AVG, .279 wOBA, .131 ISO, and 72 wRC+. Happ has a pretty clear pathway to success today and should continue trending in the right direction.

Drew Gagnon (DK: $7.1k, FD: $5.5k) | RHP | NYM vs. WAS

This is a speculation play that reaches to the extreme side of contrarianism and is certainly not for the faint of heart (or anyone rolling out just one or two lineups). The Mets are in need of a spot start on the mound today and, aside from Gagnon, the only other leading candidate for the job would be Wilmer Font, who has already given up seven runs in 6.1 innings. Gagnon has only been deployed as a reliever this season and, if given the start, will likely have some sort of pitch count restriction. Though, in his first appearance of the season he saw 97 pitches against the Phillies across 5.1 innings. Granted, things did not go all that well (7 H, 5 ER, 5 K). Still, if he can manage five innings of work, this is a Washington team that has some lackluster numbers against RHPs this season: .232 AVG, .297 wOBA, .148 ISO, 82 wRC+ with a 25.4% kRate. Even though his appearances on the mound are often in advantageous positions from the bullpen, Gagnon has allowed a relatively low .244 AVG and 1.09 WHIP on just 22.2% Hard Contact. Very small sample size but, hey, this is a long shot to begin with. If he draws the start, Gagnon likely checks in at <5% ownership in GPPs.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Globe Life Park Notice: With a total currently sitting at 10.5 runs, both the Mariners (4.9 imp. Runs) and Rangers (5.6 imp. Runs) are easily two of the top stacks of the day and don’t really need to be highlighted.

New York Yankees vs. Andrew Cashner (RHP - Baltimore Orioles)

Expected Ownership: High

I believe many people would agree that Cashner has been pitching over his head lately and some regression is due. Cashner’s .270 BABIP and 4.61 xFIP are not all that great to begin with but are much better than what he accomplished in the previous three seasons: .295 BABIP and 5.05 xFIP. He’s also still a sub-20% kRate guy and this is a Yankees team that has top 10 offensive numbers versus RHPs this year across the board, despite all of their injuries. As usual, I also have to mentioned how bad the Orioles bullpen is: 5.96 ERA, 4.38 SIERA, 1.54 WHIP and their 38 home runs allowed are, by far, the most of any other relief staff (22.6% more than the second most, to be exact). Luke Voit (.379 wOBA, .233 ISO vs. RHP) and Gleyber Torres (.375 wOBA, .234 ISO) appear to be a couple nice “spend up” options. Meanwhile, still fresh off of the IL, Aaron Hicks (.367 wOBA, .205 ISO vs. RHP in 2018) and the newly acquired Kendrys Morales are a couple cheaper options. After struggling with the A’s this season, Morales should see improved numbers as he lines up in the heart of this Yankees order.

Minnesota Twins vs. Taylor Cole/Felix Pena (RHPs - Los Angeles Angels)

Expected Ownership: Medium

The Angels will deploy an “opener plus long reliever strategy” today with Pena seeing the largest chunk of innings, so that will be who we focus on. Either way, both Cole and Pena are RHPs and the Twins are one of the most dangerous offenses against righties in all of baseball. Against RHPs this season they have a team .262 AVG (4th), .350 wOBA (2nd), .239 ISO (1st), and 117 wRC+ (3rd). Pena has been solid in some outings this season but he is allowing 43.9% Hard Contact and 37.7% Fly Ball Rate resulting in a 17.5% HR/FB Rate. This could spell bad news going against a team with that league leading .239 ISO versus righties. You could make a case in stacking any part of this Twins order going all the way to Buxton in the nine hole. But the guys that stand out most to me are Jorge Polanco (.441 wOBA, .299 ISO), Eddie Rosario (.330 wOBA, .250 ISO), and Max Kepler (.354 wOBA, .258 ISO). 

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Yu Darvish (RHP - Chicago Cubs)

Expected Ownership: Low

The stock in this Phillies offense has been falling for a couple weeks but this could be a sneaky spot for them to have one of their more productive games. Yu Darvish has started to right the ship lately but he has struggled mightily at Wrigley Field this season. In 18.1 IP at home he has a 6.38 ERA, 4.98 xFIP, .393 wOBA, and 1.69 WHIP. The Phillies' DFS salaries have plummeted, particularly on DraftKings, and you can get their top of the order hitters at very affordable price tags: Bryce Harper (.347 wOBA, .208 ISO), Rhys Hoskins (.393 wOBA, .273 ISO), and Andrew McCutchen (.339 wOBA, .170 ISO) all have some appeal at the hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. 

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Joey Gallo 💣💥 (DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k) | OF | vs. Mike Leake (RHP)

Gallo is a monster at home (.338 AVG, .474 wOBA, .380 ISO) and, considering it’s going to be nearly 90 degrees at the time of first pitch, he has some major multi-home run potential going into the evening. Gallo also leads all batters on this slate with an average exit velocity of 102.9 mph over the last two weeks on an absurd 83.3% Hard Contact Rate. Mike Leake leads all pitchers on the slate with 89.4% Z-Contact% while only fooling batters with an 8.4% SwStr%. Any time Gallo gets a match-up at home with a pitcher who allows a ton of contact, you fire him up despite the price. This may be on the more obvious end of the spectrum, but he’ll be my home run call of the evening.

Austin Riley (DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k) | 3B/OF | vs. Andrew Suarez (LHP)

Suarez will be making his first MLB start this season and it should be a great spot to go back to the well with the Braves rookie call-up slugger, Austin Riley, making his sixth career start. In 2018, 22 of Suarez’s 23 home runs allowed came against RHBs along with a .366 wOBA, .215 ISO split. Riley had 15 home runs in 37 games in the Braves triple-A organization this season to go with a .434 wOBA and .383 ISO. He hasn’t wasted any time transferring that offensive effectiveness over to the Majors with eight hits in five games, including a pair of home runs already. Despite the tougher hitting environment at Oracle Park, Riley is still a nice upside play relative to his cheaper DFS salaries.

Pedro Severino (DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.3k) | C | vs. JA Happ (LHP)

If you’re going to punt a position, catcher is usually one of the preferred spots to do so. Severino should get the start behind the plate tonight in order to take advantage of the RvL match-up. He’s been a lefty hitting specialist this season with a .320 AVG, .439 wOBA, and .400 ISO. In his last 20 games versus lefties, he has a robust 1.043 wOBA+ISO. Of Happ’s 11 home runs surrendered, 10 have been to righties, which has helped result in a .262 ISO split. As much as I think Happ has a solid night, a couple bombs from the Orioles wouldn’t shock me either. Severino is a decent candidate to deliver a long shot and his ownership will be virtually nil. 

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to give the "On Deck" Podcast a listen! You can find it linked at the top of this newsletter.

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