Top MLB DFS Plays 5/20 | Mini Main Slate Mayhem!

May 20, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

It’s another split slate Thursday and an itty-bitty four-gamer will be on the docket for this evening. These smaller slates can definitely be fun and profitable, although they are trickier to navigate in my opinion. In tournaments, ya have to try to find the right chalk to eat but also determine where you want to try to be different from the field. Really, that basic concept isn’t different from a larger slate -- your “against the grain” options are just slimmed down drastically. When team stacking, this can be a prime time to run some back-of-the-order stacks (e.g. stacking hitters #6, #7, #8) or perhaps some ‘wraparound’ stacks (e.g. stacking hitters #8, #9, #1, #2) -- particularly with the offenses who are in the better spots to succeed for the day. Most people are primarily looking to stack the one thru five hitters but even when options are limited like today, many people are still reluctant to stack guys hitting out of the six thru nine holes. This will be a fairly quick newsletter today so let’s get to it, shall we? Also, I wonder who throws today’s no-hitter? We may need to start adding a “No-Hitter Call of the Day” section if this madness keeps up.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

No PPD threats.

MIA @ PHI: Winds blowing OUT to left around 10 mph.

PIT @ ATL: Winds blowing IN from left at 10 mph.

BOS @ TOR: Winds blowing IN from left near 20 mph. In most other parks this would be a pretty significant downgrade to hitters but in similar conditions yesterday at TD Ballpark in Dunedin, FL there were still four home runs smashed out, 22 totals hits, and ten total runs scored. This game still holds the highest total of the slate for a reason!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sandy Alcantara (RHP) | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.3k | @ PHI

Man, what an uninspiring group of pitchers we have to choose from today. Even though I’m not a fan of the salaries, in my opinion Alcantara likely has the best chance to end the day as the slate’s highest scoring pitcher. He’s thrown at least six full innings in 7-of-9 starts this season. He also leads all pitchers on the slate with a 1.16 WHIP, 14.4% SwStr%, and a 0.275 opponent expected wOBA. The Phillies have been a slightly below average offense versus RHPs this season: .303 wOBA (17th), 91 wRC+ (19th), and they strike out 26.0% of the time (6th most). The Phillies are playing better over the last couple of weeks but they’ve also been on the road in some hitter-friendly ballparks (@ TOR, @ WAS, @ ATL). Citizens Bank Park has been the 11th best pitcher’s park in terms of adjusted run factor this season. This game is essentially a pick ‘em, but if Alcantara can get some run support and position himself for the win, I could see him pushing for a 25 DKFP/45 FDFP kinda day.

Drew Smyly (LHP) | DK: $8.4k, FD: $7.3k | vs. PIT

This is a purely match-up driven selection as Pittsburgh boasts the weakest offense on the slate so hopefully Smyly can take advantage of that. The Pirates rank near the bottom of the league in offensive production and have just a .281 wOBA and 78 wRC+ versus LHPs this season -- both figures rank 28th in the league. Smyly holds a slate-worst 5.27 xFIP and is striking out just 19.3% of hitters, which doesn’t bode well for his upside. However, he has picked up wins in back-to-back games while throwing exactly 98 pitches across 6.0 IP in both starts. Around 100 pitches and six innings of work for any remotely serviceable MLB pitcher facing this Pirates offense *should* result in a solid fantasy score more often than not. Atlanta is also currently the heaviest favorite of the slate (-196) so we can feel pretty good about Smyly’s chances at picking up his third win in a row.

DraftKings Only: Dodgers Long Reliever (if he’s priced at $4k)

It looks like the Dodgers will be rolling with a bullpen approach today. Nothing is confirmed yet, but right now, DraftKings has RHP Edwin Uceta listed as the “probable long reliever” and he’s priced at a flat $4,000. In his last appearance (vs. MIA), he went 3.0 IP on 54 pitches with four Ks and recorded 12.4 DKFP. If Uceta (or whoever the Dodgers elect to go with as their long reliever) manages a similar performance, that’s 3x value. There very well may not be another pitcher that hits 3x value on this slate and going this route would obviously open up a ton of salary for big bats. Just something to consider! It’s hard to be different on these small slates and many people won’t be looking to take this approach today (the main reason being that it can easily backfire, hah).

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ Gonna keep it short and sweet here. The Braves, Blue Jays, and Red Sox are the standout teams to stack up today.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Merill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Maybe I’m imagining it, but the Dodgers don’t seem like they’ve garnered the typical level of ownership we’ve become accustomed to seeing over the last year or two. I’m sure that changes on a small slate like today, but I still don’t envision them being super chalky like they often were earlier in the season. They did hit that slump in late April/early May, but it would seem that they’re rounding back into form even with guys like Cody Bellinger and, more recently, Corey Seager and AJ Pollock out of the lineup due to injuries. Over their last ten games going back to May 8th, the Dodgers are averaging 6.2 runs/gm while producing a .342 wOBA and 121 wRC+ -- both figures rank 5th in the MLB in that span. Merrill Kelly’s start got pushed back a day so he’ll step onto the bump tonight in Dodger Stadium. Kelly has a slate-worst 1.46 WHIP on the year and is known for giving up some power. His 40.4% HardHit% and 89.6 mph average exit velocity are some of the higher figures among today’s starters. The D-Backs relievers also rank out as a bottom bullpen with a 5.61 ERA, 4.48 xFIP, 1.49 HR/9, and have only a 21.0% kRate.

Miami Marlins vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), PHI

I can’t say for certain, but it seems like Vinny V will be a fairly popular option today among SPs. The Marlins offense hasn’t been good by any means, so it makes sense, but I may look to take a chance on ‘em in hopes that they string some runs and dingers together today. Velasquez has surrendered 2.15 HR/9 this season and is getting hit hard to the tune of a 47.2% HardHit%, 93.2 mph average exit velocity, and an 8.6% Barrel%. I’d lean towards targeting the Marlins bats who have above a 100 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season: Aguilar (143 wRC+), Chisholm Jr. (143 wRC+), Corey Dickerson (115 wRC+), Adam Duvall (103 wRC+), and Miguel Rojas (101 wRC+).

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), ATL

I know I highlighted him above, but I can’t pretend like Drew Smyly is some unhittable force. The guy has given up a boat load of power (49.5% HardHit%, 90.6 mph avg. exit velo, 8.1% Barrel%, 2.61 HR/9) and he allowed 5 HR, 11 H, 10 ER across 9.0 IP in his two previous starts at home this season. Bryan Reynolds (184 wRC+ vs. LHPs), Jacob Stallings (142 wRC+), Adam Frazier (137 wRC+), and Erik Gonzalez (133 wRC+) are the four Pirates who have found the most success against southpaws this year.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

After a torrid start to the year, Acuna has been a tad boom-or-bust lately, at least going off of expectations for a hitter of his caliber. A couple of injuries certainly slowed down some of his momentum but let’s see if he can parlay his first career walk-off home run from last night into a big game today.

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Pivetta has been a solid starter for the Red Sox this season and has allowed more than three earned runs in just one of his eight games. The Blue Jays may have to do a good chunk of their damage against the Sox bullpen but honestly, any pitcher can get worked at this ultra hitter-friendly ballpark. Those 20 mph winds blowing in from left be damned! If you’re going with a one-off from Toronto, I like their clean-up man in Teoscar Hernandez. He’s had no issues in righty-on-righty match-ups lately. He has a .328 AVG, .385 wOBA, three HRs, and 16 RBIs against RHPs in his last 20 games (67 PA).

2B/OF Enrique Hernandez | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

After a 3-for-5 night, which included a homer and a double, we should see Kiké back at the top of the order for the BoSox. He hasn’t gotten off to the hottest of starts this season, batting just .250 on the year, but he has a career .208 ISO and 119 wRC+ vs. LHPs. Overall, Matz has pitched pretty well this season but he’s in a potential blow up spot against a Boston team who hits lefties well. Hernandez remains super affordable and should have a solid floor with some home run upside out of the lead-off position.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

It’s slim pickings with just eight teams in play for the main slate but I’m determined to go 4-for-4 with the HR calls this week! Give me my boy, Freddie. He’s homered in three of his last five and resides in the 95th percentile of hitters with six barreled balls over the last two weeks while producing a 47.6% HardHit% in that span. Wil Crowe doesn’t have much MLB experience under his belt but he’s faced 56 lefty hitters in his brief career and has allowed a .273 ISO along with a 1.92 WHIP, .414 wOBA, and a terrible 6.65 xFIP. Even if Freddie doesn’t send one over the fence (though, obviously, I’m hoping he will), he should have a productive day… especially if he can get three cracks at Crowe.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

Check back here tomorrow for the Friday freeroll!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.