By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

The weekend has come and gone and I hope everyone had a great one, but now it’s time to get back to business and prepare for another busy week of baseball! Monday will grease the wheels and get us going with a fairly modest six-game main slate. Keep in mind that this one will get underway a bit earlier than usual with the first game of the slate (ARI @ MIA) scheduled to toss the first pitch at 6:40 ET/3:40 PT. The consensus among sportsbooks today is that offense is going to be hard to come by. Three of the six games have an over/under set at just 6.5 runs, another game has a 7.5 O/U, and 9-of-12 teams have an implied total of 4.2 runs or fewer. But we shall see which offenses and stacks manage to outperform their expectations and hopefully we land on those same sluggers in our DFS lineups. Let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Only three outdoor games on the slate and they're all clear! No rain in sight, no remarkably cold or warm temperatures to make note of, and winds should not play a major factor in any games either. Play ball!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA | DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k | vs. ARI

Dropping $10k on Lopez feels like a slight stretch but he’s in about as good of a spot as you could hope for. He’s taking the mound at home today where he has a career 2.79 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He’s also yet to allow a run in either of his two home starts this season which came against some fairly decent competition (STL & PHI). Lopez leads all starting pitchers on the slate with a 0.39 ERA and 2.54 xFIP as well. His 0.73 WHIP, 14.0% SwStr%, 27.1% kRate, and .189 opp wOBA all check in as the second-best marks on the slate. The real kicker is that he gets to pitch against the Diamondbacks and their haphazard offense. The D-Backs are the only team hitting below the Mendoza Line against RHPs this season with a .188 AVG and, while they do have some power on their roster (.154 ISO, ranks 10th) they get those big hits so rarely. Their .284 wOBA and 81 wRC+ against RHPs still place them well inside the bottom 10 offenses in those stat categories. Best of all (for Pablo Lopez), the D-Backs strike out more often than any other team in baseball with their 26.4% kRate vs. RHPs. Arizona will be rolling out a quality starter of their own in Zac Gallen so we’re heading in the direction of a pitcher’s duel in this game. Miami’s -170 moneyline odds still make them the heaviest favorites of the day and Arizona possesses a slate-low 2.8 implied run total. Lopez is going to be a chalky spend-up option but he’s deserving of the DFS attention he’ll receive today.

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.2k | @ OAK

Rasmussen’s last start (vs. SEA) resulted in him pitching six full innings for the first time in his MLB career, and it was a beauty of a performance. Across those 6.0 IP and 84 pitches thrown, Rasmussen racked up nine strikeouts while allowing just two hits, one walk, and no runs -- good for 33.7 DKFP/55 FDFP! Expecting another similar outlier performance would seem unlikely and it is always tough to trust the Rays when it comes to the leash that they give their pitchers. At the same time, if Rasmussen continues to get fully stretched out as a traditional starter who will throw upwards of 90-100 pitches in most games, then he’s a guy to watch out for. He currently leads today’s slate with a 14.6% Swinging Strike Rate and he’s posting a solid 3.50 ERA, 3.12 xFIP, and 1.00 WHIP on the season. One concern would be that he has been getting hit hard -- he has allowed a slate-high 49% HardContact% and 91.8 mph average exit velocity. The good news is that he’ll be taking the mound in the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum where he’ll face a bottom 10 ranked Athletics offense who, against RHPs, are hitting only .215 with a .280 wOBA, .122 ISO, and 87 wRC+. Some more favorable news for Rasmussen is that the A’s have struck out at the fourth-highest rate against RHPs this season with a 25.3% kRate. The Rays are also another team that will be fairly heavily favored with -160 odds to win and the Athletics join the D-Backs as the only other team with a <3.0 implied run total (A’s, 2.9 implied runs).

Also Consider:

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.6k | @ NYM

*Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.1k | @ MIA

*DraftKings Preferred

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Minnesota Twins vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

In all four of Tyler Wells’ starts this season, opposing teams have ended the game having scored at least five runs. Today he’ll run into a Twins team that has been hitting it well recently. Over the last week, Minnesota has posted a 132 wRC+ (fourth-best) and .350 wOBA (fifth-best). In the 13.0 IP in 2022, Wells has come away with an unimpressive 5.54 ERA, 4.37 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, and .369 opp wOBA. Giving up home runs has been an issue for him during his time in the big leagues. He’s already given up three home runs this season and across his 70.0 IP during his MLB career, he has a 2.06 HR/9 Rate and 11.7% Barrel Rate. The bad news (for this Twins stack) is that it seems that Baltimore has accomplished its goal of making Camden Yards a less home run-friendly ballpark via stadium renovations in the off-season. Camden Yards has gone from the most home run-friendly ballpark in 2021 to the least home run-friendly ballpark so far in 2022. Baltimore’s bullpen has also been pitching at a top 10 level. Regardless, we can look for the Twins bats to stay hot and can expect them to do some damage today. Wells has shown poor reverse splits throughout his career so the Twins RHBs get a bump in general favoritism today.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler | Sneaky Bat: Jose Miranda

Houston Astros (RHBs) vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), HOU

Marco Gonzales was forced out of the game in his last start due to a left wrist contusion caused by a line drive hit. However, following a bullpen session on Friday, he’ll manage to stay on schedule with this start tonight. Gonzales has been dismantled by right-handed hitters this and he’s allowed a .421 wOBA, .340 ISO, and four home runs to that side of the plate. He’s also a guy who has traditionally struggled when pitching on the road. Minute Maid Park has not been a particularly good place for him. In six career starts in Houston, Gonzales has a 5.40 ERA, 6.57 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, .367 opp wOBA, and only an 11.1% kRate. Collectively, in 140 plate appearances against Gonzales, the Astros have hit .311 with a .339 wOBA and a minuscule 9.3% kRate. Houston has not hit lefties particularly well this season but they’re set to get Jose Altuve (hamstring) back from the IL today which should provide a nice offensive boost. A tough Mariners bullpen (3.40 xFIP, ranks 4th) will be available to come after Gonzales but the Astros bats, particularly the righties, will still find them in a good overall spot today. They lead all teams on the slate with a 4.8 implied run total.

Update: The Altuve return is confirmed. He's back at leadoff tonight.

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman | Sneaky Bat: Jeremy Pena

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

There are a lot of tough spots for offenses today and Gallen isn’t a pitcher who I’d necessarily go out of my way to target very often. But if you’re trying to look for some more contrarian hitters to stack up, Miami may be one place to start. First off, they’ve been surprisingly good at home this season where their 135 wRC+ ranks third in the MLB. They’ve also been a top 10 offense over the last week with a 111 wRC+ (ranks 9th). Gallen has been good, no doubt, and his 0.60 ERA across his three starts this season looks great on paper. But his underlying stats like his 3.88 xFIP and 3.45 SIERA are noticeably less impressive… not bad, but not elite either. He’s also allowing a slate-high 51.4% Fly Ball Rate. He has yet to surrender a home run on any of those fly balls but Miami has been a team that has been converting many of their fly ball hits into home runs. Their 13.6% HR/FB Rate vs. RHPs ranks fifth in the MLB. Of course, a big draw with the Marlins hitters is the fact that they’ll have some innings against the D-Backs bullpen, which remains to be one of the worst relief units in baseball. The sooner they can get Gallen off the mound and get into the bullpen arms, the better.

Favorite MIA Bats: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jesus Sanchez, Jesus Aguilar | Sneaky Bat: Brian Anderson

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

SS JP Crawford | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

OF George Springer | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

1B/3B Yandy Diaz | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Daulton Jefferies (RHP), OAK

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Max Kepler | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

3B/SS/2B Taylor Walls | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Daulton Jefferies (RHP), OAK

OF Chas McCormick | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

3B/OF Brian Anderson | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Austin Hays | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

3B Jose Miranda | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

OF/2B Travis Demeritte | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), NYM

3B/OF/1B Tyler Nevin | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

Backup HR Call: OF Chas McCormick | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

The Astros lineup for today has not yet been released at the time of this writing, but reportedly Altuve will likely be making his return to the Houston lineup today following a stint on the IL with a hamstring injury. Just in case, Chas McCormick will check in as my backup HR call.

Assuming Altuve slots back into his leadoff role, he has some potential to go yard this evening. Marco Gonzales has already given up four HRs to right-handed hitters this season to go along with a .421 wOBA and .340 ISO. Few hitters have been as solid against lefty pitchers as Altuve has been in his career. Altuve boasts a .324 lifetime average vs. LHPs paired with a .375 wOBA and .172 ISO. He’s taken only nine at-bats against LHPs this season but one of those plate appearances provided a home run. He wasn’t producing a ton of hard contact before his injury but this is a nice ‘get right’ spot for Altuve as he makes his return against a struggling Marco Gonzales. Also, while the Seattle bullpen has been good in general, they’ve had some issues with giving up the long ball. Their 1.24 HR/9 Rate checks in as the fifth-highest among all MLB bullpens so Altuve’s home run chances won’t nosedive once Gonzales is retired from the mound.

Update: Altuve is back at leadoff!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Pablo Lopez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | -105 | 3.0 Units

Most books have moved Lopez’s strikeout prop to 6.5 Ks but right now this 5.5 K over/under is showing up on the Caesars sportsbook nearly at even money. Lopez should be able to record six-plus strikeouts with relative ease tonight so this seems like some odds to take advantage of. Lopez can push for around 100 pitches and six or seven innings and that would be plenty of time to rack up some strikeouts against a D-Backs team whose 26.4% kRate vs. RHPs is the highest K% in the MLB. Lopez has been sharp with a 27.1% kRate this season including a near-elite 14.0% Swinging Strike Rate. He’s a guy who typically pitches better at home and the last time he was on the mound in Miami he recorded nine Ks against the St. Louis Cardinals -- a team that has the second-lowest kRate vs. RHPs this season (19.2%). The odds here are just too good to pass up and even if your preferred sportsbook has Lopez’s O/U set at 6.5 Ks, the over still looks like a strong bet.

Julio Rodriguez OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases | +500 | 0.5 Units

Rodriguez has been showing out for the Mariners in his rookie season, especially as of late. Over his last 12 games, he’s batting .311 and has stolen SEVEN bags. He now leads the MLB with nine total stolen bases this season and it just seems like every time he gets to first base, he’s already eyeing the steal. And he clearly has the green light to be going for all these stolen base attempts. I like his chances of getting on base against a struggling Jake Odorizzi who has posted a poor 5.74 xFIP and 1.67 WHIP this season. Of course, it’s far from a sure thing and the odds reflect that, but I’m loving Rodriguez to steal another bag today and cash in this prop with a 5-to-1 payout.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!