Top MLB DFS Plays 5/19 | The No-Hitters Will Continue Until Morale Improves

May 19, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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An intriguing 12-game main slate is on tap for us on this fine Wednesday evening. This is setting up as one of the better pitching slates in recent memory with a quite a number of strong options to choose from, and there are still some standout offenses to target as well. I would say it’s a ‘fairly balanced’ slate but who am I kidding? Guys like Spencer frickin’ Turnbull are out here throwing no-hitters and we have five no-nos already and it isn’t even June yet! The league-wide batting average is at a paltry .236 which, if the season ended today, would be the lowest league BA in baseball history. Surely offensive numbers will go on the rise, especially once the weather begins to heat up. But for right now the pitchers are reigning supreme and the “de-juiced” baseballs are certainly working out for the guys who are figuring out how to control ‘em. Anyhow, let’s not waste any more time and get to tonight’s slate!

Note: I have to keep it a little concise today as I’ve fallen behind schedule over on the PGA newsletter. Which, by the way, if you ever want to try out some PGA DFS, this will be a fun week to do it. A lot of big DFS contests are out there and the PGA Championship is one of the most compelling and action-packed events to watch year-after-year! If you’re interested in checking it out, the LineStar Weekly Drive PGA newsletter will be out a couple hours after you receive this one and I’m always down to answer any questions if you tag me in chat. There are several helpful LineStar users in chat over there as well.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

BOS @ TOR: Temps in the low 80s with strong 20 mph winds blowing left to right, perhaps in from left at times.

WAS @ CHC: Could see some light rain but they played through worse stuff last night so PPD or even a delay seems unlikely. Winds blowing OUT to left close to 15 mph.

PIT @ STL: Low-end chance of some drizzle.

HOU @ OAK: 15 mph winds blowing OUT to center.

🚨MIL @ KC:🚨 This is the main game to watch out for. Considerable amounts of rain will be in the area both before, during, and after the scheduled game time. It could always change later in the day, but there’s a pretty strong chance of a washout here. For the purposes of this newsletter, I will not be mentioning any players from this game due to the PPD risk.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Scherzer (RHP) | DK: $10k, FD: $11.7k | @ CHC

Not ideal pitching conditions out in Chicago and Scherzer is giving up a worrisome 51.8% Fly Ball Rate this year. But, even if he does allow a home run or two, odds are that it’d be of the solo-shot variety considering Scherzer holds a basement-level 0.76 WHIP this season. Nothing wrong with the strikeouts upside either -- the 36 y/o is still able to boast a 35.8% kRate and 15.9% SwStr%. The Cubs have basically been league average against RHPs this season and in 161 plate appearances, the current CHC roster is hitting just .190 against Scherzer with a 30.4% kRate.

Jack Flaherty (RHP) | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.8k | vs. PIT

With high-quality options like Scherzer and Flaherty available, I’m not really looking to get too cute with my pitching choices today. Taking away his rocky season debut against the Reds, Flaherty has been lights out in his seven starts since: 43.0 IP, 1.47 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, 26.7% kRate, 0.86 WHIP, .174 opp AVG, .219 opp wOBA, and he has allowed just one home run and 27.8% HardHit% in that span. The Pirates actually don’t strike out a crazy amount (22.8% kRate vs. RHPs) but their .290 wOBA and 83 wRC+ are both bottom five offensive figures. They’re also lacking any real power as well. Pittsburgh’s .114 ISO vs. RHPs ranks dead last in the league. St. Louis is currently the heaviest favorite on the slate (-215) and the Pirates have only a 3.0 implied run total.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP) | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.5k | vs. CLE

Ohtani is going to be much more appealing on DK today since they just can’t seem to figure out how to price him correctly. Considering how important he is to the offense (and Mike Trout being sidelined for a while), we probably shouldn’t expect Ohtani to ever really throw more than about 90 pitches, which does limit his fantasy potential. However, if he continues to rock a strikeout rate anywhere close to his current 36.4% kRate throughout the season, then 80-90 pitches should leave plenty of room for upside especially if he can start lowering that 18.2% Walk Rate. Cleveland has been a bottom 10 offense this season vs. RHPs (.216 AVG, .293 wOBA, 85 wRC+) and they have the 3rd lowest walk rate in the league (7.3%) while striking out 25.0% of the time.

GPP Punt: Logan Gilbert (RHP) | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6k | vs. DET

Looked a little shaky in his debut and it seems like he was 'figured out' by the Cleveland pitching staff and hitters relatively quick. However, after producing a ton of fly balls early, he did rack up his five strikeouts in fairly quick succession. If he can bring a bit more confidence to the bump today, he could pitch five, maybe six, strong innings against Detroit.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️Top Stacks:⬆️ Despite some potentially strong winds blowing in, the game down in Dunedin, FL between the Blue Jays and Red Sox still provides a great scoring environment. Really on board with some Nationals bats today as well as they go against Jake Arrieta with those 15 mph winds blowing out to left in Wrigley.

New York Yankees vs. Hyeon-Jong Yang (LHP), TEX

The Yankees are still beat up but Luke Voit should be back in the lineup and alongside healthy bats like Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela, and back-end boom/bust pieces like Clint Frazier, Kyle Higashioka, and Roughned Odor, there is still ample fantasy potential to be had. The Yankees have been an above average unit against LHPs with a 105 wRC+ and their team .176 ISO ranks them at 8th in the MLB. They’ll be in a good hitter’s park going up against an inexperienced pitcher in Yang who has gotten fairly fortunate up to this point with a .222 BABIP against him. He holds a decent 3.38 ERA but his 4.72 xFIP tells us some regression could be in order.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Trevor Cahill (RHP), PIT

Cahill has stranded just 55.3% of runners on base this season. If St. Louis can get some guys aboard, I like their chances of racking up some runs on Cahill early and potentially forcing an early exit. In seven starts, Cahill has pitched beyond 5.1 innings just once so the Cardinals could be seeing close to half of their at-bats come against bullpen arms.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Seattle Mariners vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

Any team going up against Tarik Skubal (5.80 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, 12.5% Barrel%, .395 opp wOBA) should likely garner some ownership but that may not be the case today with Seattle. Who is going to feel confident in an offense that just got no-hit twice within 14 days? The Mariners have been awful in general regardless of who is on the mound, but against lefties, they’re hitting just .181 as a team with a 74 wRC+ and 29.2% kRate. Maybe today they can figure it out against a poor starting pitcher and one of the worst bullpens in the league.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), CHC

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK

2B/3B/SS Jonathan Villar | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

2B/SS Gavin Lux | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

1B/2B Jonathan Schoop | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), CHC

Let’s go for three in a row, eh? Soto hasn’t produced many XBH against RHPs this season and has just two doubles, one home run, a .349 wOBA, and a .076 ISO in 66 at-bats versus righties. Expect those numbers to change soon… in a good way. Soto has shown traditional splits throughout his young career so he is typically going to create more power and production against right-handed pitching. He has a career .259 ISO and .412 wOBA vs. RHPs which includes 52 home runs in 829 at-bats. With those 15 mph winds blowing out in Wrigley tonight, I believe Soto can get under one against Arrieta and send it over the ivy adorned walls.

⬇️RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN SOME FREE LINESTAR MERCH!⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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