By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Welcome to another day of MLB DFS and also another unusual Thursday MLB schedule! I know Thursdays are often when teams have their off-days scheduled but do they really have to leave us hanging with so few late games all the time?! It’s a minuscule three-game slate set up for this evening. Personally, I have nothing against smaller slates, but I do prefer to have at least four or five games on the docket! Nonetheless, someone has to pocket these DFS takedowns tonight so hopefully, that’ll be us! If small slates aren’t your thing and you’d rather skip this one, no sweat; there’s always the beefy 12-game slate heading our way tomorrow (stay tuned for a surprise in the Friday newsletter).

This will be a quick and breezy newsletter today so let’s go ahead and dig into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

No PPD threats on this three-gamer!

ARI @ CHC (7:40 ET, 9 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to left near 15 mph. Bump to bats.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.6k | @ CHC

Gallen checks in as the priciest arm on the slate but will he be worth paying up for? Well, he has certainly had an excellent season up to this point and easily carries the most strikeout upside on the slate. Gallen holds a 27.1% kRate on the year -- the next-highest strikeout rate on the slate belongs to George Kirby at 20.5% kRate. Gallen has been particularly dominant over his last five starts: 30.1 IP, 1.19 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 0.66 WHIP, .151 opp AVG, 28.9% kRate. Gallen also matches up with the Cubs, whose 25.6% kRate vs. RHPs is the highest in the MLB. The only concern here is Gallen’s fairly high 44.7% Flyball Rate. Along with his inevitably high ownership, that flyball rate will give me some pause due to those near 15 mph winds blowing out to left at Wrigley today. But, if it is any consolation, the Cubs and their 33.5% Fly Ball Rate vs. RHPs is the fifth-lowest in baseball.

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k | @ BOS

If you’d prefer to go against the grain at pitcher today, George Kirby could be worth a look. To give you an idea of Kirby’s potential, he’s currently Seattle’s No. 2 ranked prospect by MLB.com, he started five games in Double-A this season (24.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP, 34.4% kRate), skipped Triple-A altogether, and was called up to make his MLB debut 11 days ago against Tampa Bay. In his debut, he threw 81 pitches across six full scoreless innings, allowed only four hits, no walks, and struck out seven. His second start (@NYM) did not go as well, but it wasn’t bad. He held the Mets to a single earned run on three hits and one walk across four innings. He simply didn’t get the strikeouts going that game, fanning only one batter. Boston has been a below-average offense this season (94 wRC+ vs. RHPs, ranks 18th), though they have been heating up as of late and have a 149 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last week (ranks 3rd). When Kirby has been hit, he’s been getting hit hard with a 56.7% HardHit% and 94.4 mph average exit velocity. But that is also only a sample size of 39 total batters faced at the MLB level. He’s far from a sure bet today, but he put his upside on display in his MLB debut, possesses a solid four-pitch arsenal with an upper-90s fastball, and he’s a top-ranked prospect for a reason. He stands out as the most-intriguing GPP pivot among this small slate’s starting pitchers.

Also Consider:

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. TEX

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Houston Astros vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

The Astros appear to be the top team to stack today, and ownership will reflect that. But they get to face off with an inexperienced righty in Glenn Otto who has 10 MLB starts under his belt (41.2 IP) with a 7.99 ERA, 3.87 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, .281 opp AVG, and a very poor 52.8% Left On Base%. The Astros hold a 123 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season, which ranks 3rd in baseball. They’ve been on fire lately as well. Over the last two weeks, they’re posting a 144 wRC+, .359 wOBA, and .242 ISO -- ranking first in each category. The Astros got a stat boost from that home run derby they had against Nathan Eovaldi the other day, but that just shows the sort of upside they bring to the table. Otto has not pitched more than five innings in any of his 10 MLB starts, so Houston will likely see several relievers today. But nothing is overly intimidating about the Rangers bullpen either.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker | Sneaky Bat: Jeremy Pena

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

The easiest way to set yourself apart on a small slate is to stack bats against the highest-owned pitcher. If Gallen isn’t the highest-owned pitcher he’ll at worst be the second-highest-owned. And, as mentioned in his write-up above, Gallen's one glaring issue is the relatively high 44.7% Flyball Rate that he has allowed. And, like I also hit on above, that could lead to some big hits with those near 15 mph winds blowing out to left at Wrigley. The Cubs have not been good overall, and they strike out way too much, but they have been playing a bit better as of late. Their 96 wRC+ across the last week is essentially league average. You don’t have to roll out a full five-man stack here, but handpicking two or three guys to stack up in GPPs would provide some notable leverage.

Favorite CHC Bats: Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras | Sneaky Bat: Alfonso Rivas/Yan Gomes

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

SS Corey Seagar | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

OF Seiya Suzuki | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

1B Christian Walker | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

1B/2B Ty France | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

OF Chas McCormick | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

OF Alek Thomas | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

OF Kole Calhoun | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

Few hitters in the league have been as hot as Altuve has been in the month of May. Since he returned from the IL on May 2nd, Altuve is hitting .316 across 64 plate appearances with a huge .474 wOBA, .404 ISO (!!), and 226 wRC+. Altuve’s seven home runs in that stretch trail only Aaron Judge (8). Five of those seven Altuve HRs in May have come against RHPs. Over his 42.1 IP in the MLB, Glenn Otto has posted a 1.59 HR/9 Rate and 20.8% HR/FB Rate against right-handed hitters, like Altuve. Once Otto is done for the day, a Rangers bullpen will come in. The Rangers relievers have combined for a 1.25 HR/9 Rate (3rd highest) and an MLB-high 15.3% HR/FB Rate. The Astros are in a good spot to hit some dingers tonight and Altuve sets up as one of the best bets to do so.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Jose Altuve OVER 1.5 Total Bases (from hits) | +115 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

If you’re reading this in the newsletter, you’ve just read why Altuve is looking like a strong home run candidate today and I love taking that prop as well. On the FanDuel sportsbook, you can get the Altuve HR prop at +500, which looks like great value (he’s around +350 on other books). Even if he doesn’t homer, he has a great chance to record either a double or multiple hits in this game out of his lead-off spot in the order. Altuve has cashed this prop in five of his last seven games (and 9-of-15 games this month), so getting it at plus money is too hard to pass up.

Houston Astros -1.5 Runline | +100 (Caesars + Others) | 2.0 Units

I'll be staying in Houston for the second bet today. The Astros lineup has been too hot lately and they’re now 13-3 over their last 16 games. They return home today following a nine-game road trip and get a plus match-up with Glenn Otto (7.99 career ERA) and a suspect Rangers bullpen that gives up plenty of HRs. They did lose in Boston yesterday, but Houston is 5-1 in their last six games following a loss. The Rangers are 4-22 in the last 26 meetings with the Astros in Houston and Texas hitters will have a tough match-up with ground ball specialist Framber Valdez. Instead of taking the Astros moneyline at -210 odds, let’s go with the runline at even money in a game where they should win by multiple runs.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!