By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

We’re back for another midweek MLB main slate! Of course, DraftKings and FanDuel just have to make things difficult by, once again, not having the same game selection for their main slates. FanDuel will feature the WAS @ MIA and SD @ PHI games onto its main slate, totaling eight games and beginning at 6:40 ET. DraftKings will nix those two match-ups off their main slate and instead start up at 7:05 ET with a six-game set. As usual, the primary focus of the newsletter will land on the mutually shared games today.

Despite its relatively modest size, there is no shortage of high-end ace-level talent taking the mound today -- a stark difference from yesterday. To the delight of many, there is no Coors Field to sweat over either. Offense and successful stacks may be a little tough to come by on this slate but let’s see if we can land on the right spots anyhow!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

It’s another fairly stress-free weather day!

NYY @ BAL (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): There is potential for light rain to move in during the later innings but they should be able to play through it. Not a concern.

CWS @ KC (8:10 ET, 8 O/U): Nothing crazy but it will be around 84 degrees at first pitch in Kansas City, making it the warmest game environment on the slate.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.6k | @ BAL

It’s hard to go wrong with any of the top five arms on this slate: Scherzer, Gausman, Cole, Ohtani, and Giolito. I mean, seriously, that’s five of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball right now -- all with at least a 30.3% kRate and 14.1% SwStr% on the season.

Cole gets featured here thanks to drawing the more favorable match-up along with being in perhaps the best form out of those five. In his last four starts (25.1 IP), Cole has a basement-level 1.42 ERA, 1.97 xFIP, and 0.99 WHIP with a 33.3% kRate and .245 opp wOBA. While Baltimore has been hitting it better in recent weeks, their 96 wRC+ vs. RHPs still places them smack-dab in the middle of MLB offensive rankings and their 26.2% kRate over the last week is the fourth-highest. Once again, the red hot Yankees step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate (-260) and Baltimore holds a lowly 3.1 implied run total. We’re getting the “good version” of Cole as of late so it’s hard to jump off of the bandwagon now.

Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.3k | @ KC

Gio is clearly mispriced on DraftKings and gets a soft match-up so he’s going to be a popular SP2 today. He should remain in the GPP conversation on FanDuel, where other guys like Cole and Scherzer will have higher ownership. Kansas City’s 21.9% kRate is only the 21st highest in the MLB but that has increased to a 24.3% kRate over the last two weeks (6th highest). Giolito has elite strikeout stuff with a 35.2% kRate and 15.7% SwStr% on the season. His 35.3% CSW% (called + swinging strike %) ranks 4th in all of baseball and he’s posting a sharp 2.66 xFIP. At home this season, Kansas City has the lowest run average with 2.44 runs/gm. They’re also creating just a .098 ISO against RHPs at home, so they’re showing very little power at the plate. The only concern for Giolito today is the potential to face light pitch restrictions since he hasn’t started since May 10th following an eight-day stint on the COVID-19 list.

Also Consider:

It’s an embarrassment of riches today…

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.4k | vs. STL

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $10.1k, FD: $9.8k | vs. SEA

*Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA | DK: $9.3k (Turbo Slate), FD: $10.5k | vs. WAS

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.1k | @ TEX

Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC | DK: $7.1k, FD: $6.8k | vs. PIT

*FanDuel Main Slate

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory NYY Stack: New York Yankees vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

It’s at that point where writing up the Yankees as a recommended stack is just lazy DFS journalism. It’s on par with saying “hey, you should look into playing hitters playing in Coors Field!” Jordan Lyles hasn’t been too bad on the season as a whole, but hardly anyone is capable of keeping the Yankees bats fully in check at this point.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

Many eyeballs will gravitate towards the Blue Jays bats today even though their offense has not exactly been living up to the hype yet in 2022. Of course, they still have massive potential throughout their lineup but Toronto’s inevitable popularity can largely be attributed to the massive struggles that Marco Gonzales has put on display this season. He has accounted for a slate-worst 4.83 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, and .384 opp wOBA. The long ball has been a major issue as he has allowed eight HRs this season (2.25 HR/9) with a very poot 19.0% HR/FB Rate. The Mariners do have a pretty decent bullpen to back him up and the primary bats that you’ll want from this Blue Jays lineup won’t come cheap. But it feels like a solid spot to run some two, three, or four-man Toronto stacks if you can find some value bats elsewhere (because you’re probably going to want at least one of those high-dollar pitchers in your lineups today).

Favorite TOR Bats: George Springer, Bo Bichette, Santiago Espinal | Sneaky Bat: Vlad Geurrero Jr. (Given his lack of recent upside + high price tag, I don’t see a crazy amount of ownership landing on Vlad Jr.)

Chicago Cubs (RHBs Preferred) vs. Wil Crowe/Mitch Keller (RHPs), PIT

It’s looking like the Pirates will be rolling out another opener (Crowe) plus long reliever (Keller) approach today. Crowe has been pretty decent in short stretches out of the bullpen this season (2.57 ERA, 4.27 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP) but Keller has been a bit of a gas can: 6.61 ERA, 4.37 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, .354 opp wOBA. Across his career, Crowe has shown some poor reverse split tendencies with a .288 opp AVG, .377 opp wOBA, and 2.08 HR/9 Rate. Keller has had more traditional splits across his career, but this season he has been awful against right-handed hitters with an 11.66 ERA (!), 4.46 xFIP, 1.77 WHIP, .384 wOBA, and 1.84 HR/9. The Cubs have had their fair share of problems at the dish this season and they strike out far too much, but as far as offensive production goes, they’re not far off from league average with a 95 wRC+ vs. RHPs. They have scored 16 runs over the last two games against Pittsburgh in this series and this feels like a spot where their bats could continue to stay fairly hot.

Favorite CHC Bats: Willson Contreras, Seiya Suzuki, Frank Schwindel | Sneaky Bat: Alfonso Rivas

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM

This is 100% about leverage and nothing more. Hardly anyone not named “ZeroInDenver” will be playing these offenses facing one of these aces today. In St. Louis’ case, at least they’re been one of the better offenses in the league lately with a 130 wRC+ over the last two weeks (ranks 4th). But you’ll just mostly hope that the Cardinals can put up a few hits and a couple of runs on the board and then make a late-inning rally against whoever comes out of the Mets bullpen… which is also good. I know this isn’t making a very convincing argument for the Cardinals bats, and if you don’t play a lot of lineups, then completely ignore this section. But just maaaaaybe a two or three-man STL stack can come through and produce today at extremely low ownership.

Favorite STL Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman | Sneaky Bat: Brendan Donovan

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

OF Mike Trout | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

C Willson Contreras | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Wil Crowe/Mitch Keller (RHPs), PIT

OF Luis Robert | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

2B/OF Jeff McNeil | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), STL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

It’s a tough day for value but we’ll have to find *some* cheap bats if we’re going to get one of those aces in the lineup while also having salary left over for a few big bats.

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

1B/OF Frank Schwindel | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Wil Crowe/Mitch Keller (RHPs), PIT

1B Alfonso Rivas | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Wil Crowe/Mitch Keller (RHPs), PIT

2B/OF Eli White | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA

SS/3B Andrew Velazquez | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Willson Contreras | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Wil Crowe/Mitch Keller (RHPs), PIT

It’s a decent spot to scour across the Cubs righty bats when searching for home runs. Wil Crowe hasn’t given up a home run across 21.0 IP out of the bullpen this year, but across his career, he has allowed a 2.08 HR/9 Rate and 20.2% HR/FB Rate to RHBs. Crowe should only be out there for an inning or two, leaving way for Mitch Keller to take over as the projected long reliever. Keller has had some real issues in righty-on-righty situations this year -- 11.66 ERA, 4.46 xFIP, 1.77 WHIP, .384 wOBA, 1.84 HR/9, 15.8% HR/FB Rate. Now, Contreras is not a reverse splits hitter or anything but he does have three HRs against RHPs this year while creating a massive 54.4% HardContact Rate. Contreras’ average exit velocity of 95.1 mph vs. RHPs over the last two weeks also scores inside the 95th percentile of MLB hitters. There are safer home run calls to make this evening, particularly when it comes to those guys in the pinstriped jerseys, but Contreras sets up nicely in this spot as well.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Gerrit Cole OVER 6.5 Strikeouts | -160 (DraftKings) | 3.0 Units

To repeat what I mentioned with Cole above: in his last four starts (25.1 IP), he has posted a 1.42 ERA, 1.97 xFIP, and 0.99 WHIP with a 33.3% kRate and .245 opp wOBA. In those four starts, he threw 92, 91, 114, and 97 pitches and recorded 9, 6, 10, and 9 Ks while covering at least 6.0 innings each game. He’s dialed in right now and Baltimore has struck out 26.2% of the time over the last week (fourth-highest). In 86 PA against this Orioles offense, Cole has put up a strong 31.4% kRate. Strikeouts, strikeouts, strikeouts. Cole should be expected to get at least seven of ‘em tonight.

Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Runs Scored | -128 (BetMGM) | 2.0 Units

The Judge props have been smashing this season so why hop off the money train now? With the way Judge has mashed in the last two weeks (.341 AVG, .488 wOBA, 234 wRC+, 5 HRs, .429 OBP), we could see pitchers look to do their best to stay away from him at the plate. At the very least, he’s likely getting on base a time or two tonight. Whether that’s via hit or walk doesn’t matter too much for this prop, because the Yankees lineup can probably bring him in to score a run regardless. There’s always the high chance of Judge getting some pitches and going yard, so he could just cash this prop himself without needing to be hit in. Judge has scored at least one run in six of the last eight games so the -128 odds on this prop represents some strong value.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!