Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 5/18 & 5/19: Weekend Edition - On Deck Podcast with Joe & Chris

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Happy Saturday everyone. We have a seven game slate tonight that's pretty weak on pitching and should make for some high scoring games. At the moment, we don't have any games with a total lower than 8.5 (a couple of games are still missing Vegas info). The high end pitching options are either pitchers I wouldn't typically consider to be in the top-tier or in a tough match up, which makes them higher risk than usual. Here’s a look at all the games:

Weather looks good across the board. I don't see any threats of rain. We are slowly starting to creep into the time of the year where temperatures will play more of a factor. It's worth noting it's going to be in the mid-80s in Atlanta tonight in a game that currently owns a 9.5 O/U. That game is definitely worth a look for some bats. Outside of that, I don't see anything else that would have an impact.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Stephen Strasburg (DK: $10.7K, FD: $10.8K) | RHP | CHC @ WAS

The top-tier is a bit weak tonight. You can make an argument for and against each one of them. Berrios has the best match up against a Mariners team that started out hotter than fire but has dropped off a cliff recently, going 3-7 in their last ten games and falling two games below .500. My concern is Berrios infamously struggles on the road. Arizona doesn't have the scariest lineup on the planet but they are excellent against left-handed pitching with a .365 wOBA and .226 ISO. Bumgarner is also allowing 44.3% hard contact. Strasburg is the most talented of the three and although I don't love the match up against the Cubs, he's the most likely to succeed here in my opinion. We are only a couple months into the season and Strasburg has just 57 innings under his belt so far but if he can stay healthy and keep up this pace, we may finally get what we've been looking for from him since the start of his career. He has a 3.03 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, 32.8% strikeouts, and a 50.5% ground ball rate. All of those numbers are an improvement over last season. He's also only allowing 25.9% hard contact, a .261 wOBA to lefties and a .267 wOBA to righties. I recognize it's a tough match up but his numbers this season are putting him in the elite category for the time being. He's my top pitcher on the board tonight.

Jon Lester (DK: $9.2K, FD: $9.3K) | LHP | CHC @ WAS

There are reasons to be skeptical about this recommendation but there's also a very small pool of pitchers to work with tonight. For starters, he's facing Strasburg, which could make the win more challenging to earn (more of an issue on FanDuel than DraftKings). Secondly, it's a difficult match up against the Nationals who have been solid against left-handed pitching this season including a .340 wOBA and .209 ISO. He's looked like vintage Lester so far this season with a 3.65 SIERA, 1.11 WHIP, 23% strikeouts, and only 5% walks. But this is Jon Lester, who has broken our hearts a few times the last couple of seasons. I won't lie, it feels a bit like a trap, but I'm having a hard time ignoring his numbers. I'm seeing few signs of possible regression. His 1.16 ERA is certainly not sustainable but his 3.65 SIERA is still excellent. The BABIP against him is right around the league average at .295 so he hasn't been lucky. The ground ball rate is up (42.2% this season compared to 38.2% last season). I'm a huge fan of Lester from his time in Boston and his admirable battle with cancer before returning to baseball. I would love nothing more than for this to be real. Everything in the numbers suggests it is, so I will have some shares of him tonight. Just know, it's a small sample, so it's absolutely a risk.

Griffin Canning (DK: $8.5K, FD: $6.8K) | RHP | LAA vs. KAN

FanDuel pricing forces me to talk about Canning tonight, where he's $1.7K cheaper than he is on DraftKings. The Angels top pitching prospect and second round pick in 2017 is off to a strong start to his major league career. He's 1-1 in three starts with a less than exciting 5.65 ERA but a much more encouraging 3.69 SIERA. His strikeout upside has been on full display so far at 30.7%. The walks are a little high, 9.7%, but this is typical when someone first comes up to the big leagues. Overall, everything looks promising. Despite the early results, FanDuel's price hasn't caught up to his production, making him a bargain today. He's in play on DraftKings as well, especially if you're not feeling the top tier today. But obviously he's less appealing at $8.5K. The Royals are not a pushover match up with a .327 wOBA and .193 ISO but Canning still finds himself as the largest favorite on the board at -170.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

I'm going to skip over the Astros/Red Sox game. It has an 11 O/U which stands out well above all the other games today. It will be popular (rightfully so) and I definitely have interest but there's no point in me writing this article if I'm just going to state the obvious. Let's look at some other options:

Atlanta Braves vs. Chase Anderson (RHP – Milwaukee Brewers)

I hinted at this quickly in the introduction but I love this game between the Braves and Brewers for offense tonight. We have two unexciting pitchers, a relatively hitter friendly park, and 80+ degree weather. All a solid recipe for offense in this one. The Braves, in particular, are standing out against Chase Anderson. I know he's flashed at least some upside this season but I ultimately expect him to regress closer to his 2018 numbers which included a 4.68 SIERA and only 19.9% strikeouts. His fly ball rate is high and identical this season to last season at 44.2%. Could be dangerous today with the ball likely carrying a bit further in the warmer weather. Freeman (.395 wOBA, .200 ISO, 45.2% hard-hits), Acuna (.337 wOBA, 40% hard-hits), Markakis (.401 wOBA, .204 ISO, 47.5% hard-hits), and Donaldson (.371 wOBA, .239 ISO, 55.8% hard-hits) are standing out against right-handed pitching. Austin Riley is off to a fast start in the majors. I'll talk about him a bit more in a moment. McCann or Flowers both make for solid catching options at an otherwise weak position.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Nick Margevicius (LHP - San Diego Padres)

I can see a world where Margevicius is chalk today as an SP2 on DraftKings. He's inexpensive and he's facing a Pirates team that is struggling with left-handed pitching the season including a .265 wOBA, .096 ISO, and 27.1% strikeout rate. I understand the logic behind the potential popularity due to the match up, but at the end of the day, this is still Nick Margevicius. So if he's going to be highly owned, I'm going to want the other side of it. Margevicius owns a 4.86 SIERA, 1.44 WHIP, and just 15.7% strikeouts. Don't avoid the lefties here. He has a 6.22 xFIP, 1.83 WHIP, and just 10.3% strikeouts against them. Left-handed batters have a 45.8% hard-hit rate and .476 wOBA when facing him this season. Polanco (.361 wOBA vs LHP) is standing out after getting a day off last night for rest. Bryan Reynolds owns a .438 wOBA and 43.8% hard-hits against lefties this season (small sample) and Melky Cabrera has a .386 wOBA and .189 ISO against lefties this season. I fully recognize it's an ugly lineup on paper but Margevicius's numbers aren't any better. This could be a good opportunity to gain some leverage on the field in a relatively low risk situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP - SF Giants)

Basically the exact opposite of the Pirates, the Diamondbacks are arguably the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching at this stage of the season. The own a very impressive .367 wOBA, .229 ISO, and 130 wRC+. Bumgarner has been solid with a 3.55 SIERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 29.3% strikeouts. But he's getting hit very hard, allowing a 45.2% hard contact rate to lefties and a 43.4% hard contact rate to righties. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have the third highest hard contact rate against left-handed pitching at 43.2%. Escobar (50% hard-hits), Peralta (51.2% hard-hits), Walker (58.1% hard-hits), Jones (42% hard-hits), and Flores (42.1% hard-hits) all have a lot of upside in this spot, albeit with risk in a challenging match up against Bumgarner.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Austin Riley (DK: $3.9K, FD: $3K) | OF | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP)

Well, I'd say Austin Riley's major league career is off to a good start. He's 6 for 12 with a home run and two runs batted in. He has a 44.4% hard contact rate and 93.7 mph average exit velocity. This is an extremely small sample size, obviously, but his price hasn't adjusted much either at this point. So I'm planning to jump on before it sky rockets if he keeps this up. Don't forget, we have great hitter's weather and a good match up against Chase Anderson as well.

Nicky Lopez (DK: $3.1K, FD: $3K) | 2B | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP)

If I have a solid opportunity to punt second base then I typically take it. It's not a position with a ton of separation between the top and bottom tier players (even less so right now with Altuve on the shelf). Since being called up, Lopez has been batting second and he's put up fantasy points in each game. He's 6 for 19 with two runs scored and an RBI. It's another small sample situation, I completely understand that, but he's literally free on DraftKings today (I'm less interested in him on FanDuel).

CJ Cron (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.5K) | 1B | vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP)

Cron is catching some fire with two 20+ fantasy point performances in the last week. LeBlanc is returning from the IL today after battling an oblique issue. He's struggled so far this season, particularly against right-handed batters, with a 5.97 xFIP, 1.75 WHIP, and just 15.3% strikeouts. Cron has historically performed very well against left-handed pitching with a .651 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games. Over his last 20 games, he's stepped it up even more with a 1.026 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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