By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 5/18 On Deck Podcast w/ Scott Bogman & KC Bubba

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

You know what time it is! It’s Tuesday, so another colossal 14-game main slate is heading our way. We’re still waiting on the Vegas totals for 2-3 games at the time of this writing, but as of now, only three offenses are heading into the slate with an implied total above 4.5 runs. The majority of teams on the slate are rolling out quality pitchers that are slotted in the top half of their rotation and there are even some decent arms towards the bottom of the DFS pricing today. It seems like it’s going to be another one of those days where landing on the correct offenses will be a bit more difficult than usual (and there’s no overly obvious stack like the White Sox were yesterday) -- though, the teams who have yet to announce their starting pitcher may change that presumption. Good luck today, everyone, and shout out to LineStar user @daddyfatty who finished second in yesterday’s DraftKings MLB Super Knuckleball for a cool $25,000 takedown! Love to see those big Ws in the community!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

There are going to be a few spots to keep an eye on today. A few games could experience rain delays with outside chances for being PPD.

CWS @ MIN: May have to play through some light rain here and hope nothing heavy enough falls to cause a delay/PPD. Winds blowing IN at 10-15 mph.

WAS @ CHC: Pretty much the same forecast as in Minnesota, except winds blowing from right to left at 10 mph.

PIT @ STL: Possible we see a late start here if they want to wait on some light rain to clear the area.

HOU @ OAK: Doesn’t help a ton in this park, but winds blowing OUT to center at 10-15 mph. Cooler temps in the 50s minimize any real boost to hitters.

MIL @ KC: Chance for rain picks up right around the time of first pitch (8:10 ET) and persists throughout the night. If it is heavy enough to cause a delay, it could be a lengthy one... possibly long enough to where they just decide to postpone. This seems like the game to keep the closest eye on.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Blake Snell (LHP) | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8k | vs. COL

If the weather looks like it’s going to cooperate out in Kansas City, I’m fully on board with rolling out Brandon Woodruff (DK: $10.2k, FD: $11k) as the top stud pitcher of the day. However, now that his salaries are down in the $8k range, I’m looking to deploy Snell in some lineups as well. Perhaps today is the day where he figures it all out and strings together a dominant fantasy performance. The strikeout upside hasn’t really gone anywhere -- Snell’s 31.0% kRate ranks 4th on the slate. However, his major struggle this season is giving up walks. His 15.2% BB% on the season has helped lead to a poor 1.54 WHIP. That’s a pretty significant increase from his career 10.4% BB% and 1.26 WHIP. He’ll draw a good match-up at home against the Rockies who have just a 7.7% BB% against LHPs on the road this season while striking out 29.6% of the time (3rd-most) and accounting for only a 66 wRC+ (4th-lowest). Snell’s numbers have been drastically better at home this season as well: 19.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, 2.73 xFIP, 34.1% kRate, 12.9% BB% (still bad, but not horrible), 1.22 WHIP, and .176 opp AVG. Vegas currently has Colorado pinned for 2.9 implied runs and the Padres are the heaviest favorites on the slate at -230.

Andrew Heaney (LHP) | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.6k | vs. CLE

Heaney leads all pitchers on this slate with a 33.6% kRate on the season and his 13.9% Swinging Strike Rate trails only Brandon Woodruff (14.1%). He may not be the most consistent guy out there, but when a pitcher has this much strikeout potential and is priced in the $7k range, they really have to draw at least some GPP consideration. Honestly, I don’t really mind going to Heaney in cash games either. His 4.75 ERA looks a bit ugly but he’s been getting fairly unlucky as his underlying pitching stats would indicate. His 2.95 xFIP and 2.93 SIERA show us that he has actually been a better pitcher than what that ERA shows. Heaney gets a plus match-up with a Cleveland offense that holds a 78 wRC+ vs. LHPs on the season (ranks 27th) and an even worse 62 wRC+ against southpaws in the month of May (ranks 29th).

Kris Bubic (LHP) | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. MIN

Again, we have to worry about the weather in this game but if it plays, how can you not like Bubic? Particularly on DraftKings at an absurdly low $4,000 salary. Bubic has 62.2 IP in the MLB and it isn’t like he’s been a stud on the mound. He has a career 3.73 ERA, 4.53 xFIP, 21.7% kRate, 1.42 WHIP, and .249 opp AVG. Very average numbers, at best. However, even if Christian Yelich is back tonight, the Brewers aren’t an overly potent offense by any means and they have struck out 27.1% of the time against LHPs this season. I’d be more hesitant to go here on FanDuel, but there is a pretty wide-open window for Bubic to return 4x-5x value on DraftKings today.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️Top Stacks:⬆️ Not really feeling any “can’t miss” stacks today… though we still have some teams who haven’t confirmed a starting pitcher so perhaps that changes closer to lock. The two more obvious teams of the day to target, largely based on implied run totals, would be the Rays and Blue Jays. Both teams would appear to be in strong spots. The Rays are going up against Matt Harvey at Camden Yards & the Blue Jays are at home in the hitter-friendly TD Ballpark in Dunedin, FL where they’ve averaged 6.14 runs/gm this season.

New York Yankees vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

The Yankees burned some people yesterday as they were only able to produce a couple of runs. But they are really shorthanded with Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Aaron Hicks all out for various reasons. They still find themselves in one of the best spots of the day while getting to face Foltynewicz. Folty has been taken deep for multiple home runs in four of his eight starts this season. His 91.5 mph average exit velo, 47.4% HardHit%, and 7.9% Barrel% all rank as the highest (worst) figures among today’s confirmed starting pitchers. Despite working with a relatively rag-tag group, there is plenty of potential throughout this Yankees order. Also, Luke Voit got his first home run of the season out of the way in the later innings last night. Look for him to start smashing ‘em out on a regular basis moving forward.

Houston Astros vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), OAK

Manaea just got smoked in his last outing (@BOS) when he allowed seven earned runs on ten hits and lasted just two innings on the mound. Manaea is a quality pitcher and perhaps he bounces back tonight, but it won’t be easy. The Astros are brutally tough against LHPs, especially lately. Over the last two weeks against lefties, as a team, the Astros are hitting .317 with a .388 wOBA, .221 ISO, and a 156 wRC+ while striking out just 15.2% of the time. They also possess quite a bit of positive BvP history against Manaea. In 220 PA against him, the current Astros roster has hit for a .253 AVG, .330 wOBA (.383 xwOBA), and have just a 14.4% kRate.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Detroit Tigers vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), SEA

Detroit finds themselves in this section again since, even in good match-ups, very few people give them full stack consideration. They have been a top 10 offense in the last two weeks with a .337 wOBA and 116 wRC+ which both actually rank 5th in that span. They’ll face off with Justin Dunn who possesses a slate-worst 6.37 xFIP and a sub-20% kRate.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams highlighted above in the stack section:

SS Trea Turner | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

Davies is giving up a .405 wOBA to RHBs and hasn’t really found much of a groove yet this season. Turner comes in red hot over his last four games while hitting .500 with three doubles and a pair of home runs. He’s putting up stud fantasy numbers and that’s without stealing any bags, which he has a great chance at doing any time he’s on base.

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

Teoscar has been really solid the last couple of weeks, going 15-for-44 (.341) with a .439 wOBA and 184 wRC+. He’s also hit three home runs off of ERod in just 15 plate appearances and gets to bat in “Coors Field Jr.” today.

2B/SS Jazz Chisholm Jr. | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

Love seeing this dude back in action. After over two weeks on the IL with a hamstring injury, Chisholm made an immediate impact in his return a couple of days ago as the Marlins lead-off man. He went 2-for-5 with a run scored and a stolen bag in a 3-2 Marlins win. He has stolen eight bases in just 23 games this season and has accounted for a 153 wRC+. A tough match-up with Wheeler but, in all honesty, he’s been a fairly average pitcher in five of his eight starts this season and is far from unhittable.

Value Bats to Consider

1B/3B Yandy Diaz | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

2B/SS Gavin Lux | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Jarred Kelenic | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), DET

2B/OF Dylan Moore | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), DET

1B/OF Andrew Vaughn | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Michael Pineda (RHP), MIN

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Austin Meadows | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

Matt Harvey should be one of the top pitchers to target against today and Meadows has as good of a shot at going yard as any other Tampa Bay Ray in the lineup. He’s blasted seven home runs against RHPs this season in just 105 at-bats while producing a .295 ISO. Meadows has been fairly boom-or-bust this season but he’s been hitting it on the screws quite a bit lately and I’d look for him to smash one out of Camden Yards tonight.

⬇️RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN SOME FREE LINESTAR MERCH!⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

Check back here tomorrow for the Wednesday freeroll!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.